NBA Betting Breakdown (Dec. 22)

The NBA season is officially back. After a successful “restart” in Orlando, the NBA regular season starts just 71 days since the last season ended, the shortest offseason in pro sports history. While this season is just 72 games, don’t expect to see any less competition as the top of the Eastern Conference has improved while the West remains a juggernaut.

In case you missed it, check out our Eastern Conference team previews and our Western Conference teams preview.

The FTN Betting Breakdown is a new article series we are featuring this year on FTNBets, where we will have a daily breakdown of the day’s NBA betting slate. This breakdown will feature key injury news and updates and how players and teams are affected by said news to give you the opportunity to potentially jump on some lines. 

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Golden State Warriors (+260, +7.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (-234, -7.5)

Game total: 232

Key injuries

Warriors: Draymond Green OUT, Alen Smailagic OUT, James Wiseman IN (minutes unknown)
Nets: Nicolas Claxton OUT

We kick off the NBA season with an incredibly intriguing matchup between two teams expected to play at a fast pace throughout the year. The total currently sits at 232, which feels a bit low based on how I project both of these teams to play in terms of pace and defense. The fact that this is the first game of the year (meaning potential rust) is keeping that line down. That said, in an empty arena with a plethora of offensive talent, 232 is a bit low. 

Warriors

Pace: N/A
Defensive rating: N/A

The Warriors open the season on the road as decently sized underdogs in Brooklyn. In games Draymond Green did not play last year, the Warriors played at a slightly slower pace (-0.91) with a slightly worse defensive rating (-0.95). In Green’s absence, I’d expect Golden State to start Eric Paschall, who averaged 6.46 more minutes per game in games without Greenplay. 

The books open up Stephen Curry’s prop totals with an aggressive line of 27.5 points. Most books list his rebounding line at 4.5 and his assists at 6.5. These all feel like fairly sharp lines across the board with the rebounding line’s over juiced up in the -150+ range to hit the over. 

After Klay Thompson went down, the Warriors brought in Kelly Oubre to pair with Andrew Wiggins and Curry. The books open Oubre’s points prop at 16.5. Although the over is heavily juiced at -175, Oubre’s 3PM prop sits at just 1.5. Wiggins points prop opens up at 17.5 with the best odds on FanDuel Sportsbook if interested in the over. 

James Wiseman is one of the more intriguing players in this game. The books aren’t currently listing any Wiseman props as his minutes are a bit of an unknown. I’d expect Wiseman to play around 12-15 minutes in the opener. 

Nets

Pace: N/A
Defensive rating: N/A

The Nets will look to build on their strong preseason and open up as fairly heavy favorites against a Warriors team that many people don’t have a good read on. During the preseason, we saw Steve Nash start with Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris, Kevin Durant and DeAndre Jordan. I would expect we see those same starters in the opener with Caris LeVert playing that sixth man off the bench. 

I am really intrigued by Kevin Durant’s points prop sitting at 25.5 on PointsBet and not juiced up. The consensus has this line at 26.5. Durant looked great in preseason and if his minutes are in the 30-34 range, I project Durant for 26-32 points based off Golden State’s projected defense and the pace of this game. 

The Warriors ranked 20th against primary ball-handling scorers last year per Advanced DvP, and Irving’s prop total suggests that opening at 24.5. That line feels a bit aggressive for me considering the plethora of offensive talent the Nets possess. 

Joe Harris sitting on plus-money (+134) to hit O2.5 threes is an interesting bet. Harris’s role on this team shouldn’t be all that different than his role, in fact he should see a few more open looks from 3. 

I’m taking a wait and see approach on the Nets center rotation. I expect both Jordan and Jarrett Allen to basically split the 48 minutes, but I don’t have a strong lean on it. Books appear to feel the same way with none listing any rebounding props for either. 

Los Angeles Clippers (+130, +3.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers (-150, -3.5)

Game total: 219.5

Key injuries

Clippers: Marcus Morris OUT
Lakers: None

The defending champions open the season against their crosstown rivals as slight favorites, and rightfully so. If I had a lean, I would take the Clippers value here as the Lakers are coming off the shortest turnaround, having just won the NBA title. Both teams are expected to be top 10 defensively, with the Lakers playing at a slower pace. Ty Lue is the new coach for the Clippers and while his Cavaliers teams played at good pace, I don’t think we see anything change too drastically compared to last year, as he was a fixture on Doc Rivers’ staff. 

Clippers

Pace: N/A
Defensive rating: N/A

With Marcus Morris unavailable, I would expect we see the Clippers start Nicolas Batum like they did in preseason. Another potential contender to start would be Luke Kennard. Although Kennard just signed a $64M contract Monday, neither of these players should take away much usage at all from Kawhi Leonard (26.5) and Paul George (21.5). The over on George’s 21.5-points prop is juiced up a bit in the -130 range. If you expect the Clippers to win that game, I’d expect George to eclipse that total. 

At +115 and listed at 7.5, Leonard’s rebounding prop intrigues me, as we’ve seen him in the past be ultra-aggressive on the boards when facing elite competition. There’s risk to it, but that is a curious line to me. Part of that may be Vegas over-valuing the impact of Serge Ibaka starting instead of Ivica Zubac. 

Ibaka was arguably my favorite offseason pickup as the Clippers improve their floor spacing and defense with him. His props all seem a bit too low considering he has been one of the strongest per-minute producers across the board over the last two seasons. His three-way points, rebounds, assists sits at just 21.5. My favorite Ibaka props to target the overs are points (12.5, -133) and 3PM (1.5, +125). 

Lakers

Pace: N/A
Defensive rating: N/A

The biggest question surrounding the Lakers is whether we see full minutes for guys like LeBron James and Anthony Davis after such a short offseason. I’m leaning we see maybe 1-2 minutes less, but with the bigger impact being neither player will really be pushed past 36 total minutes unless there is overtime. 

James’ prop totals open up at 24.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists, which are all fair numbers considering we’ve typically seen LeBron be more passive early in the season. I am most interested in that assist number as Vegas is overvaluing Dennis Schroder’s impact on that. LeBron was consistently listed at 9.5 assists last year sharing the court with Rajon Rondo, who has a bigger impact on his assist total than Schroder. 

Based off the Lakers last preseason game, I expect Davis to be option A on offense and his prop total suggests that opening up at 26.5. While that number is high, we are getting some slight plus-money on it around +100 to +105. 

One player I am most intrigued in tonight from a props perspective is Montrezl Harrell. While I think Ibaka is an upgrade for the Clippers, Harrell certainly doesn’t feel that way. Per his production and usage in the preseason his opening points prop at 13.5 is juicy as well as his rebound prop sitting at just 5.5, but it’s juiced up. Harrell is one of those players who you can target in a narrative and this is a good narrative for him.