NBA Best Bets of the Day (3/31)

NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games. 

Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.

Let’s get to it. 

Mikal Bridges Over 30.5 Points+Assists

(-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)

A Mikal Bridges prop from me? You must be so surprised. I have been repeatedly betting the overs on Bridges’ numbers since his trade to the Nets, as he continues to have an amazing role in this offense. He is averaging 29 points alone over his last 10 games, and 29.6 over his last five while also averaging north of three assists in that time. However, we have seen his assist numbers pick up lately as he has 14 assists in his last three games. Atlanta ranks 22nd in assists allowed, while also ranking 24th in points allowed and 25th in FG% allowed. Since the trade, Bridges is averaging .77 points per minute, and he is playing monster minutes for this team, averaging 37.3 MPG over his last 10 games.

Once again, a Mikal Bridges ladder on his points also interests me. He is +390 for 35-plus points and +1000 for 40-plus on FanDuel. 

Shaedon Sharpe Over 22.5 Points

(+116, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Trail Blazers are essentially an entirely new team with Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Jermai Grant and Jusuf Nurkic headlining the slew of Portland players who appear to be done for the year, and Shaedon Sharpe has been the biggest beneficiary of this. Sharpe has at least 24 points in four of his last five games, and even more importantly, he is playing monster minutes even in uncompetive games. Sharpe is averaging 38.5 MPG over his last five games. The matchup against the Kings is a good one as well, as they are 26th in PPG, 29th in FG% allowed and 23rd in 3PT% allowed. My model projects Sharpe for over 29 points. 

This is another ladder opportunity, Sharpe is +370 for 30-plus points and +1000 for 35-plus on FanDuel. 

Jaden Ivey Over 19.5 Points

(-130, BetMGM)

Jaden Ivey’s prop line on DK and MGM sits at 19.5, but its actually at 21.5 on other books. I would like this over even at 21.5 as Ivey has had elite usage as of late. His usage rate in this last four games are as follows; 36%, 36%, 26% and 32%. I also like the over on his assists and/or his points + assists lines as my model has him for 23 points and 8 assists. This is an elite matchup against the Rockets, who rank 28th in PPG, 25th in APG, 30th in 3PT allowed and 21st in FTs allowed. 

You guessed it, another ladder opportunity here with Ivey being +550 to score 30 points on FD.