Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
James Harden o10.5 assists
(-102, FanDuel)
With no Joel Embiid, it’s safe to say that James Harden’s involvement in this offense will see a big increase. My model projects Harden for north of 13 assists.
Alperen Sengun o7.5 rebounds
(+116, FanDuel)
Alperen Sengun has been fairly consistent in his rebounding efforts, as he averages 8.7 rebounds per game over his last 10. My model projects him for 8.33 in this spot, but this becomes a top bet with the line being plus-money.
Chris Paul o22.5 Points + Assists
(-115, DraftKings)
Great matchup for Chris Paul, as the Jazz are top 10 in pace and bottom 10 in DEF. My model has Paul for 15.32 points and 9.86 assists.
