NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
The Sunday NBA action is broken up into two smaller tiers of games. We have three that start before dinner time on the east coast and a handful of other games after dinner to finish off the night. We are awaiting a few pieces of injury news that are causing books to hold up the prop numbers for a few teams.
Trae Young of the Hawks, Anthony Davis of the Lakers and Brook Lopez of the Bucks are all guys who could impact their teams in a big way if they sit. We will have updates on those games in the FTNBets discord once news drops on Sunday. We do have plenty of other games to look at, so here’s our NBA best bets for Sunday.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Chris Paul OVER 9.5 assists
This may sound counterintuitive, but Chris Paul has actually racked up more assists in games that Deandre Ayton was out. He has at least 11 assists in five of the six games played without Ayton. In 43 games with Ayton this season, CP3 averages under nine assists per contest. OKC is a solid defensive unit, but the Suns still have an implied total over 116, with Paul and Devin Booker likely to carry the offensive load.
NBA Best Total Bet
Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 235
The Clippers are playing on the tail end of a back-to-back, but Kawhi Leonard sat out last game and should be ready to play today. His defense and rebounding should help keep the total down on the Blazers’ side. Portland is also without Jerami Grant today, and his replacement won’t be an offensive upgrade, which is another negative to the total. Our FTN NBA betting model has this total more than 10% above our projections, making this a very playable number.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Nic Claxton Points OVER 11.5
The Denver Nuggets are in the bottom half of the league for points allowed per 100 possessions. Over the last two weeks, they rank 28th and are on the tail end of a back-to-back in the big apple. Nic Claxton has been playing well, averaging 15 points per game over the last five and scoring at least 11 points in each of those games. These two teams matched up three games ago, and Claxton had one of his best scoring nights of the season, dropping 20 points. The big concern vs. Nikola Jokic is staying out of foul trouble. If Claxton can avoid that, he should be on the receiving end of some easy lobs when Jokic gets caught out of position helping on defense.
