Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have an interesting NBA slate Thursday, with only five games. Two of those five games have spreads that are at 13 points and climbing. I try to avoid playing overs in games with big spreads. It avoids the inevitable pain of watching your guy sit the whole fourth quarter, only one point or rebound short of cashing because his team is up 20. Sacramento is on the road for the tail end of a back-to-back in the highest total game on the slate and the only one of the five that has a spread below three possessions.
This is one of those days where you have to be a bit more selective in matching projections and potential game flows. Remember all projections at their care are built off some kind of per-minute average. The one thing that changes in blowouts are the minutes. That was the main thing in my mind when finding my NBA best bets for Thursday.
Best NBA Points Prop Bets Today
Nic Claxton Over 11.5 Points
This is a great spot for Nic Claxton. The Sacramento defense has been abysmal recently, ranking 29th of 30 teams for points allowed per 100 possessions. The Kings are also on the tail end of a road back-to-back. Claxton has been playing very well recently. He’s averaged 15.5 points over the last four games and topped this number in three of those four. Those games were all on the road. I wanted to play a Nets player scoring over, and the numbers for Mikal Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie seemed high. Claxton was my favorite pay here, but I would not be shocked if all these Nets hit their upside. The matchup is that juicy for them.
Killian Hayes Under 12.5 Points
This opened at 13.5 and has been hammered. The under 13.5 is -135/-140 at best where you can still find it. Jaden Ivey is back from Health and safety protocol. That means these 35- to 40-minute games from Killian Hayes are a thing of the past. Even with his recent scoring run, he is still averaging under 10 points per game this season. With Ivey back, expect his minutes, usage and shot attempts to come back to earth.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet Tonight
Paolo Banchero Over 6.5 Rebounds
This is one of the biggest rebounding edges we have Thursday based on our Player Prop projections. Paolo Banchero projects for 8.4 rebounds, almost 2 rebounds above his prop number. This is a great price too as FanDuel has it down to -104 today against a Suns team that is a bit undersized playing a smaller lineup with guys like Josh Okogie and Torrey Craig joining Chris Paul and Devin Booker around Deandre Ayton in the middle. That should create rebounding mismatches for Banchero.
