Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA has a small six-game slate stretched out over the course of Sunday. The Nets and Nuggets start it off in the early afternoon. The Knicks and Lakers will close it out from the west coast.
The three early games all have spreads of three possessions or more. The three late games have spreads of three points or less, so I feel more comfortable taking some of the key pieces that should get their full run. Here are my three NBA best bets for Sunday.
Best NBA Points Prop Bets
Kristaps Porzingis OVER 21.5 Points
Kristaps Porzingis has played the 76ers three times this year and is averaging 28.7 points per game against them. He has topped 22 in nine of the last 10 games, including seven straight. He faces a Philadelphia team that has been giving up the second most points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks. This matchup isn’t as tough as it looks on paper at the moment, and KP has already performed against the 76ers in the past. Plus, with Daniel Gafford and Delon Wright being more defensive minded and playing more minutes for the Wizards, the scoring load falls even more of the main three of Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma and KP.
Mitchell Robinson OVER 8.5 Points
Mitchell Robinson missed this number in the last game, and that’s a good thing because it was creeping up to -125. This is a much better matchup. The Lakers are a fast-paced team, so that should lead to extra Knicks possessions. They have also allowed a lot of production to opposing centers this year. Robinson isn’t going to create his own shots. He thrives in pick-and-roll, rebounding and putback situations. Robinson has topped this number in six of the last eight games.
D’Angelo Russell Over 16.5 points
D’Angelo Russell played his first game of the season for the Lakers and was phenomenal. He finished with 29 points, knocking down 5-of-8 from deep. He took 17 shots in that game after averaging just 13.3 FGA per game with Minnesota and 17 points in 32 minutes per night with the Timberwolves. If his minutes are already the same and his shot attempts remain elevated with less scorers on this team, I think we’re looking at the low end of what we will see in terms of scoring props for D-Lo moving forward. If this was 18.5, I would back off, but at 16.5 I love this play.
