Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have an interesting small slate of NBA games for Sunday. The first one tips off at 1 p.m. ET between the Magic and Hornets. We then have five games that tip off in the evening hours. All six games have totals within the 226 to 236 range, and none have a spread higher than five.
While it may be a small slate, it does shape up as a competitive day of basketball. We have a lot of potential injury situations to monitor, so make sure you get over to the FTN Bets Discord for updates. If you are not already signed up, click here to enjoy a free weekend preview of FTNBets and see all we have to offer. For now, here are my NBA best bets for Sunday’s games.
Best NBA Spread Bet
Denver Nuggets +2.5
Our FTN Betting Model actually projects the road Nuggets to win by about four points in this matchup. The fact they are getting +2.5 points on top of that creates a big playable six-point edge. Karl-Anthony Towns remains out for the Timberwolves, but now Rudy Gobert was also downgraded to questionable. Naz Reid would draw a start if Gobert can not play, but that would create a huge hole on defense against the reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. Without their starting frontcourt, it makes sense to back Denver over Minnesota in this one, even if they weren’t getting points.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Donovan Mitchell UNDER 25.5 points
Donovan Mitchell has seen less minutes and played incredibly inefficiently so far since returning from a week-long absence. He was ejected early last game, and now Caris LeVert is also questionable, so there are ways for him to hit upside. My problem is that he has shot just 22-for-61 since returning, and most of them have been low-probability shots from deep. Not only that, but he has attempted just two free throws in the last four games, which tells me he is not attacking like he does when he’s playing well.
Best NBA Steals Prop Bet
Buddy Hield OVER 1.5 Steals
Buddy Hield has gone over 1.5 steals in six of the last seven games. It is not an easy thing to do, but that is why the payout is +145. More importantly, Hield has averaged 37 minutes a night during this stretch. The more time he is on the floor, the better that is for his opportunity. Caris LeVert is likely out, and Donovan Mitchell is banged up. There are reasons to think Hield and the Pacers are going to take advantage of that defensively.
