Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! The All-Star break is almost here. Wednesday and Thursday night feature the last games for every team before about a week off to make time for the All-Star festivities.
This can be a scary time of the season to bet. More than ever we have to question the motivation of every team in every game until the break. Will good players be distracted by the excitement of being in the All-Star Game? Maybe bad teams that see their postseason hopes fading are thinking more about their vacations this weekend than their opponents. This only adds to the uncertainty we fight with each day as NBA bettors, but fear not. Where there is uncertainty there is also value to be had. Let’s dive into Tuesday’s games and see where we might be able to take advantage of bad spots for teams.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns
Current Line – Suns -5, 244.5
My Projection – Suns 124, Kings 126
Key Injuries – None
The Suns sure are fun now that they have all three of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal playing together. All three of them are great shooters, good passers and have experience being the leader of an efficient offense. The Suns also have support players like Grayson Allen, Jusuf Nurkic and Eric Gordon that are good offensive players. Put it all together and you have the fifth-most efficient offense in the NBA since the start of January. Unfortunately, that doesn’t make for a great defense where Phoenix is just league average in defensive rating. They built their team with a focus on offensively gifted players and at the sacrifice of players who are good defenders. The Suns are 17-8 since Christmas but are just 11-13-1 against the spread. Without a strong defense, it’s hard for Phoenix to hold onto leads late and beat teams by margin.
Sacramento has had an odd stretch of games. They won five games of a seven-game road trip and returned home to lose to the Detroit Pistons by 13 and beat the Denver Nuggets by 29. Their next game was a 14 points loss to the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Sunday. The loss to Detroit was a bad schedule spot and the game against OKC was closer than the score indicates. Overall, I think the Kings are a good team and very good offense when they have a healthy roster like they do Tuesday. Sacramento can score against any team and Phoenix is no exception. The Kings have beaten the Suns twice this and covered the spread in their one loss. This profiles as a tightly contested, high scoring game which will be won by whatever team hits their shots late. I make the spread two and we get a chance to take five points with the Kings. That’s a bet.
Bet
Sacramento Kings +5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers
Current Line – Lakers -11, 241.5
My Projection – Lakers 122, Pistons 115
Key Injuries – LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable.
The Pistons have won two of their last three games. You read that correctly, and despite that being correct, the Pistons still have the worst record in the league. That means a team that had no intention of tanking this season can focus on winning games to end the season without jeopardizing their chances of getting the first pick in the draft. The teams with the three worst records all have the same chance to get the top pick and Detroit has a four-game “lead” over the team with the fourth-worst record. For a team full of high draft picks led by a former Coach of the Year, this is a chance to redeem themselves and build some good habits for next season. Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren are playing, Jaden Ivey has found his role, and Simone Fontecchio who they acquired at the deadline is playing hard for a new contract this offseason. It’s still a bad team, but it’s not a terrible team actively trying to lose basketball games.
The Lakers are winning games again, but they are only the 9 seed in the Western Conference, just two spots ahead of the Jazz in the standings. I mention that because the Lakers are scheduled to play the Jazz in Utah Wednesday night. That is a much more important game than Tuesday’s matchup against a bad, nonconference opponent. As is tradition, both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable and although I’m sure the Lakers want both to play in front of a home crowd, they might actually prefer one, if not both, rest so they can play their best Wednesday to beat a team they might need the tiebreaker over in the standings at season’s end. This is a very tricky schedule spot for the Lakers and I make them only seven point favorites. I’m going to take the 11 points with the young team that is playing to beat a distracted Lakers team in LA.
Bet
Detroit Pistons +11 (-110, Caesars)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets +9, 227.5
These teams play in Brooklyn Tuesday and then again in Boston Wednesday, the last game before the All-Star break for both teams. There are a lot of questions about motivation for both teams. Will Boston’s stars be looking ahead to playing in the All-Star game? Could a Brooklyn team that is getting further from the playoffs each game check out because they are looking ahead to a short vacation? It’s just a messy situation. That said, I think the Nets cover tonight and the Celtics cover tomorrow night, but I don’t see any value in betting this number. I make this Celtics -11 if Kristaps Porzinigis can play and Celtics -7.5 if he can’t. That’s not a big enough edge either way. If KP is announced out and this spread doesn’t move, I might back Brooklyn, but nothing for now. I’ll put that wager in the FTNBets Discord if/when I make it.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic +2.5, 223.5
This is going to be a great game. These are two of the best young teams in the NBA. Both teams have potential stars, great players that fit well, and plenty of long, athletic players throughout the roster. I would not be surprised if we see them play each other in the NBA Finals in 5sh years. As for tonight, I think the Thunder have the better team and should be 3.5-point favorites. The market has set the spread at 2.5 which is a little lower, but only by a point. Orlando is a great defensive team and matchup as well as any team can with Oklahoma City. Jalen Suggs should have some success against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Wendell Carter has the tools to guard Chet Holmgren. At the same time, the Thunder have Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort to throw at Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. You should definitely watch this game, but I’m not sure that betting on it is a good idea.
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks -8, 222.5
Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are out for Miami, which explains why this spread is so big. The Heat have been playing good basketball the last few games, but they are undermanned here. It’s also the first night of a road back-to-back for them, which means they night play their best, especially if they are down big late in the game to rest up for Wednesday. That said, I do think this number is too big, but not big enough to bet. I make it Milwaukee -6. The Bucks did crush the Denver Nuggets Monday, but it looked more like a Nuggets “sleep-walk” game than an inspiring Bucks victory. Milwaukee still looks confused on the defensive end of the floor and the offensive has stalled. The Heat can cover this number, but I just can’t bet on it given how few good players they have available to play.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers +9, 213.5
The Timberwolves played in Los Angeles Monday night and have a game in Portland Tuesday and another in Portland Thursday night to finish a five-game road trip before the All-Star break. This might be on of the all time strangest schedule spots. At the very least, we know the Timberwolves have tired legs. We also have to consider what their level of motivation is to play hard against a Portland team they can beat without their best effort. There is also the chance that Anthony Edwards might be looking ahead to the All-Star game and his teammates might be looking ahead to the All-Star break. The Trail Blazers, a young team that is definitely not making the playoffs, might be looking ahead to the break as well and might be missing a few key players. My projections are close to the market, but my gut says to just bet Portland tonight and if they lose bet them again Thursday night. I think they’re going to cover at least one of these games and possibly win one outright, but that’s just my gut and I try to always bet with my brain. That means I must pass.
