NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Tuesday is the final slate of NBA In-Season Tournament group play games, which means there is a lot on the line. Enthusiasm was low before the season for most, but the IST has been a success in its first year. The players and coaches have taken the games more seriously and seem genuinely excited at the chance to win.
NBA regular season games in October, November and December had historically lacked excitement and were generally full of injury/rest nonsense, but not these IST games. The groups created fun matchups and the limited number of games have made point differential key to advancing. Teams know this and have played much harder at the end of games knowing that every point could be the difference between advancing to the knockout state or not. I’m excited to see how the In-Season Tournament develops over the next few seasons and what we can learn from these games, which have been much different than “standard” regular season basketball. Before we get to the night’s games, let’s start with a quick look at the potential outcomes for the In-Season Tournament groups that have yet to be decided and which teams might be able to be the wild card in their respective conference.
- East Group A – The Indiana Pacers have won this group with a 4-0 record.
- East Group B – The Milwaukee Bucks win the group if they defeat the Miami Heat. If the Heat win and the New York Knicks lose, then Miami wins the group. If the Heat win and the Knicks win then we go into a three-way tie with records of 3-1 between the Heat, Knicks, and Bucks that is determined by point differential.
- East Group C – The Orlando Magic win the group if the Brooklyn Nets lose. The Brooklyn Nets win the group if they win and the Boston Celtics lose. If the Nets and Celtics win then we go into a three-way tie with records of 3-1 between Nets, Celtics, and Magic that is determined by point differential.
- Wild Card – I think this ends up being the second-place team in East Group B or the Magic if they don’t win East Group C. The Celtics currently have a point differential of zero and would need to win by 20-plus points to win that tiebreaker, so I think their chances are slim to be the wild card.
- West Group A – The Los Angeles Lakers have won this group with a 4-0 record.
- West Group B – The Houston Rockets win the group if they win their game. The New Orleans Pelicans win the group if the Rockets lose.
- West Group C – The Sacramento Kings win the group if they defeat the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors win the group if they beat the Kings and the Minnesota Timberwolves lose. If the Warriors and Timberwolves win then we go into a three-way tie with records of 3-1 between Warriors, Timberwolves and Kings that is determined by point differential.
- Wild Card – The Phoenix Suns look to be a lock for this with a +34 point differential. Unless the Warriors beat the Kings by 29 points, there is effectively no team that can finish with a point differential that high without winning their group anyway.
There is still a lot to be determined, but be sure to consider the motivational angles for each team. To the basketball.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Line – Cavaliers -4.5, 237
My Projection – Cavaliers 118, Hawks 117
Key Injuries – Jalen Johnson is out.
This game should be a fun matchup between two of the more interesting although non-title-contending teams in the NBA. We all saw how good Cleveland can be last season, and they just now finally have the whole band back together. They have played only seven games with all four of their keys players (Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen). Mitchell and Garland are one of the best guard duos in the league and one of the few that work together or apart from one another. Mobley and Allen provide the rarity of having two good rim protectors on the floor at all times let alone having at least one good rim protector at any time. Atlanta has a team full of multi-faceted talents that can play multiple positions well. They can go big with Bogdan Bogdanovic as the point forward. They are devastating when they go small with Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey and Onyeka Okongwu. They have size, shooting, defensive talent and just about anything else you’d want from a basketball at an above average level. I think this game will be played with a razor thin margin and will happily take the 4.5 (or even just 4) points with the Hawks. I am slightly concerned that I’m underestimating the value of Jalen Johnson who has been a surprise starter, but I think Saddiq Bey can step in easily and fill JJ’s role. The Hawks can handle guarding both Mitchell and Garland while also having plenty of bigs to keep Mobley and Allen busy. Cleveland does also deserve a small bump for playing their fourth consecutive home game. Teams tend to settle in and play better the longer they are in the same location. I still make this a one-point game, so let’s back the underdog.
Bet
Atlanta Hawks +4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks
Current Line – Knicks -11.5, 220.5
My Projection – Knicks 118, Hornets 103
Key Injuries – LaMelo Ball is out.
I’ve written before in this space about how good the Knicks and Tom Thibodeau-coached teams perform against the truly terrible teams in the NBA and tonight is a perfect spot to attack that angle again. Teams often overlook the dregs of the league and play down to their competition, play more lax with a lead late, or rest their best players against teams competing for the top lottery spot. Not teams coached by Thibodeau. He demands his players give their best and full effort whenever they are on the court regardless of opponent or score. That leads to wins by large margins as the Knicks continue to score and attack even with a big lead late in games. There is added incentive to do that Tuesday, because New York has to win and win by a lot of points if they want to make the knockout round of the NBA In-Season tournament. You can read the particulars above, but for them to have any chance they need to get their point differential as big as possible to win tiebreakers. The Knicks beat the Hornets by 22 Nov. 12 and by 14 about a week later Nov. 18. LaMelo Ball played in both of those games, but he will not be on the floor tonight. Charlotte’s best player and keystone to their success is listed out and without him, it’s hard to see how the Hornets manage to score any points let alone enough to stay with 12 points of the Knicks. I generally hate laying numbers this big, but I’m happy to do it tonight with the Knickerbockers of New York.
Bet
New York Knicks -12.5 (-108, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops – Quick Thoughts on Games I’m Not Betting
Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets -2, 223
As noted above, the Nets must win to have a chance to win their group, but they may be without one of their most important players, Nic Claxton. Could the Raptors be motivated to knock out the Nets or will they be looking ahead to their game tomorrow night in Toronto against the Phoenix Suns? Remember, a team can be as motivated to stop an opponent as that opponent can be motivated to win and advance. If Claxton is playing, I like the Nets to win an ugly game, but I’m probably not betting it when he’s announced in and I’m definitely not betting it now.
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat +4, 228
No Jimmy Butler makes it hard to back the Heat even as home underdogs against a team they’ve beaten before despite expectations. Bam Adebayo is the ideal player to have going against Milwaukee. He has the size and skill to guard Giannis Antetokounmpo and can also handle staying in front of Damian Lillard. Erik Spoelstra knows how to make a game ugly and slow which plays to Miami’s advantage if they can pull Milwaukee down into the mud with them. The Bucks just need to win this game to win their IST group but could be the wild card even if they lose. I want to bet Miami, but I just can’t get there. My model agrees with the market, so I’ll pass.
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics -13.5, 220
The Boston Celtics have to cover this spread by at least nine points if they want to win their In-Season Tournament group or advance as the wild card. As bad as the Bulls have been, I have this as only a 10-point game. Normally, I’d bad the underdog with that kind of edge, but I’m not betting the Bulls and I’m not betting against the Celtics team that might be trying to win by 20-plus points. Chicago is a mess and likely to have their roster torn apart soon. I’m happy to pass on this game.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5, 229
My projections and the betting markets agree with the price in this matchup. I have the Timberwolves -3, but that’s with no adjustment for their added motivation of needing to win and by a decent margin to advance in the IST. It’s a great matchup and I think the game of the night. Chet Holmgren versus Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns will teach us a lot about OKC’s rookie. Anthony Edwards versus Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a look at the future of the Western Conference and the NBA. Watch this game, but there’s nothing of value I can tell you to bet.
Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks -4, 228.5
The Rockets must win this game to win West Group B, but if they do win it will be their first road win of the season. The Mavericks are at home after two days rest and with two days before their next game. That means Dallas should be fresh and ready to get their season back on track with a win while playing spoiler to their Texas rivals. My projections make the Mavericks -6, but that’s not a big enough edge to go against the added In-Season Tournament motivation angle.
Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings -1.5, 236
Both teams have a chance to win their IST group and both have to win this game. Draymond Green is back from suspension. The Kings are back to playing the winning basketball we saw from them last season. There is a big brother/little brother dynamic in this game where Golden State has won 10 of the last 11 regular season games against Sacramento. My projections are close to market and there is too much unknown to parse through for me to make a bet. How will the Warriors adjust with Draymond back in the lineup? Can the Kings beat the Warriors for the first time this season? It should be a fun game, but not one I can bet on right now.
