Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This is a busy Sunday in the association with nine NBA games on the schedule. We have four early games starting between 3:30-5 p.m. and five more starting between 6-8 p.m. It is also a very evenly matched schedule, as we currently have no games with a spread over 7.5 points.
I am waiting on a few pieces of injury news before I make any sides or total bets, but once that sorts itself out, you can check on the biggest edges in those markets by looking at our FTNBets NBA betting model. Currently the only bets I have placed are player props, and here are my three favorites.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bets
Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 11.5 rebounds
(+100 FanDuel)
Giannis Antetokounmpo has a good rebounding matchup against a Dallas team that rebounds the fourth fewest percentage of their own missed shots and is in the bottom half of the league for offensive rebound percentage allowed. Giannis has averaged 11.4 rebounds per game this season, although he’s been below 10 rebounds in four of the last seven. That is why we are able to get this number at plus money. Giannis has multiple games this year with 12-14 rebounds, and this projects to be a close one which could mean a few more minutes than usual for the Milwaukee star. He is averaging .36 rebounds per minute of action, which means if he sees 32 or more minutes, he would project to the over.
Josh Hart OVER 7.5 rebounds
(-117 BetRivers)
Josh Hart has been a revelation on the glass so far this year. He is coming off a monster 19-rebound performance. He is averaging 9.6 rebounds per game on the season and gets an uptempo matchup against a weak defense that is last in the league in defensive rebound percentage. They are also second worst in the league for rebounding their own misses, which means the Blazers should have a ton of potential rebounding opportunities today. Hart has played 40+ minutes in two of the last three games with the injury bug hitting the Blazers hard. The opportunity for another big rebounding game is definitely present.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Kyle Kuzma OVER 20.5 points
(-120 FanDuel)
Kyle Kuzma has scored 20+ in four straight games and seven of his last nine contests. He has taken 92 shots over the last four games, which is an average of 23 shots per game. That is up from his season average of 16 field-goal attempts. The increased shot attempts have led to the increase in points, and I don’t see a reason to think that will change. Kuzma’s prop has crept up but not enough to keep up with how quickly his shot attempts have risen. Kuzma’s minutes have also been up with Rui Hachimura sidelined. If that is the case again today, it only gives me more confidence in him going over.
