Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Top Points Prop
Myles Turner Over 15.5 Points
(-118, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This play is all about the minutes — in games where Myles Turner has played at least 30 minutes this year, he is averaging over 26 points per game and has had no fewer than 16 points in those games. Last game he scored 14 points in just 25 minutes thanks to foul trouble.
Top Assists Prop
Kevin Porter Over 6.5 Assists
(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is a big number, as Kevin Porter is averaging right around 6 assists per game, but he has had 11 assists in back-to-back games and my model has him for nearly 8 tonight, which makes me like this bet even more at +100.
Top Rebounds Prop
Alperen Sengun Over 7.5 Rebounds
(-150, BetMGM)
Alperen Sengun has been on a tear as of late, recording at least 8 rebounds in nine of his 10 games this year, and he still got 7 in the one game he came up short. Even more importantly, he has played at least 29 minutes in five of his last six games.
Top Underdog Pick
Bennedict Mathurin Over 2.5 Threes Made
(+120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bennedict Mathurin is shotting 43.7% from three this season, and 49% at home. He is averaging over 6.5 attempts from three per game this season, and the Toronto Raptors are allowing the eighth-most 3s per game to opposing guards.
