Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The NBA has a solid seven-game schedule Tuesday. It is a competitive slate of games as more than half of them have spreads below four and none are greater than seven points. Our NBA betting model did not have a single edge in either the points or total market that was greater than 9%. Although some of the final scores lately have been astronomically high, so maybe we should be looking at overs for points and totals based on recent results. We did find a few in the Player Prop Model. That is where I start the research for my three NBA best bets.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Mikal Bridges Over 19.5 Points
We’ve been riding Mikal Bridges with all the injuries to the backcourt, and he’s been paying off like a loose slot machine near a casino entrance. He’s had five straight games of 21 or more points, averaging just shy of 24 over this span. Chris Paul is back now, but Deandre Ayton, Devin Booker, Cameron Payne and Landry Shamet are out. That’s four scorers who average a combined 60-plus points per game. Guys like Bridges and Paul will need to make up for that loss.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bets
Nikola Vucevic Over 12.5 Rebounds
Nikola Vucevic has been dominating the boards lately. He’s had double-digit rebounds in 11 straight games. During this run he’s averaging just shy of 14 per contest and is coming off a 17-rebound game against Atlanta last time out. He draws a very good matchup against a fast paced and defensively deficient Pacers team. He projects over this number by almost two full rebounds.
Kyle Kuzma Over 8.5 Rebounds
Kyle Kuzma has three straight games with double-doubles and, DK has that listed at +200 too, which is worth a sprinkle. Kristaps Porzingis is out and they just traded away Rui Hachimura, so they are suddenly thin in the frontcourt. Kuzma only played 32 minutes last game in a 20-point blowout win but had seen 36, 40 and 40 the three games before that. He still had 10 rebounds in 32 minutes but had 13 and 11 the two games before that.
