Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Happy Friday to you all, but my condolences to the family of Dejan Milojevic. The Golden State Warriors head coach suffered a fatal heart attack and passed away Wednesday morning. This is a place where the NBA angles are generally the most important parts of any story, but not today. I can only imagine what the Milojevic family is dealing with right now let alone how the Warriors will respond.
For the rest of us, this is a great reminder to eat well, get yourself in shape, and go see a doctor regularly. Even if you have no family history of heart disease, problems can arise quickly and play out even more quickly. So as you watch NBA basketball, eat some vegetables, maybe get on that treadmill you forgot you own and schedule your annual checkup during halftime.
As for those games, we’ve got seven matchups, one of which is a potential NBA Finals preview and surprise, surprise, I have a bet in that game. Unfortunately, there will be no video version of Hoops with Noops Friday. I know, I’m sad too, but I’m traveling and do not have a good spot to record or a connection good enough to do so. Sorry to make you read, but here we go.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics
Current Line – Celtics -7, 234.5
My Projection – Celtics 119, Nuggets 116
Key Injuries – None
The rating on the Celtics has gotten out of hand. Using the closing spreads for each game you can figure out the market rating for every team in the NBA. The Celtics have the highest rating of any team since Kevin Durant was on the Warriors. Let that sink in for a minute. Of course, Boston is a great team. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis is arguably the best starting five, best group of four players and the best trio of player for any team. Furthermore, they are at home tonight and the Celtics have won 20 games and lost 0 games in Boston this season. Well, so what? Does all of this mean they deserve to be multi-basket favorites over the defending champions featuring Nikola Jokic, who is favored to win his third MVP in four seasons? I certainly don’t think so, my projections make this much closer than market, and I could make a case it should be even closer than my model suggests. The Nuggets have lost three of their last six games, but two were bad schedule/travel spots and the other was a tightly played loss to the 76ers in Philadelphia. Denver is fully healthy and the only team in the NBA that might have a better starting five than Boston. Jokic generally gets up for games like these and finds a way to raise his play to an even higher level than we’ve seen all season. Porzingis is a skilled defender with a lot of size, and Al Horford — despite being old for the league — is one of the smartest defenders in the NBA. Jokic is going to be able to do whatever he wants on offense regardless of the efforts of those two players. Someone once said that the best player wins the basketball game. Jokic is the best player, and the Nuggets might just be the better team. I’m happily betting the Nuggets +7 and am going to sprinkle half a unit on the moneyline.
Bet
Denver Nuggets +7 (-108, DraftKings Sportsbook, 1U)
Denver Nuggets (+220, FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.5U)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic +5.5, 222.5
My projections agree with the market here. It’s the first night of a double road back-to-back for the 76ers, and that’s a tricky spot for any team, especially one with playoff aspirations and an oft-injured star. The Magic miss Franz Wagner, but they seem to have leveled out a bit and are playing decent basketball again. They have no one to guard Joel Embiid, but Jalen Suggs can guard Tyrese Maxey and Paolo Banchero will present a lot of problems for the Philadelphia defense. This might be a very fun game, but I’m not sure quite exactly how it’s going to go and my model is close to the current lines. I’ll pass here.
San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets -4.5, 235.5
Victor Wembanyama is out, so don’t even think about this game and definitely do not watch it. In fact, you should probably stop reading this paragraph, but I’ll continue for the masochists among us. LaMelo Ball has been playing for the Hornets, and I thought that would mean a return to lots of points for Charlotte. Instead, the Hornets scored 99 against these Spurs, 87 against the Heat, and 112 against the Pelicans. Charlotte should be able to get whatever looks they want here and play at a fast pace, but I just can’t count on that happening. I make this game Hornets -6 with a total of 238, which gives me small edges on Charlotte, the over, and a Hornets team total over, but I’m not making any of those wagers because the edges aren’t very big and you know, there’s much better ways to spend your Friday than thinking about this game let alone betting on it.
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat -6.5, 223.5
No Trae Young and the Heat finally have all five of their starters healthy and available to play. This should be a fairly straightforward win for Miami, and I make them 8-point favorites. That’s not a big enough edge for me to make a bet and I’m curious to see how the Hawks play without Trae Young. The Atlanta guard is one of the best passers in the league and a great shooter, but a high variance one. He’s had games where everything Young put up from anywhere on the floor came splashing through the dead center of the net and games where he can’t see to make simple, easy shots. His absence is a negative over a long period of time, but for a game or two, maybe the Hawks enjoy some lower variance offensive outcomes and more size in the lineup to help their defense. Again, I think the Heat win this game by a few baskets, but there’s a chance that the Hawks play up to a higher level for one game without their lead guard. I’ll pass on this one.
Indiana Pacers at Portland Trail Blazers +5.5, 238.5
No Tyrese Haliburton, no Pascal Siakam, no problem, The Pacers beat a healthy, rested Kings team in Sacramento without their two best players. Unfortunately, they did that Thursday night, which makes Friday’s game in Portland a double road game, back-to-back spot. We don’t have an official injury report for Indiana, but I do expect at least one of Haliburton or Siakam to play. Of course, we still have no idea how this team is going to function with Siakam. So, we have a tired Pacers team, we don’t know who’s playing for them, and we don’t know they will play together. I just don’t see how I can make a good number for this matchup. My gut says under since Portland has been able to take the air of the ball and drag teams into a slow pace with them, but I don’t bet with my gut, so nothing for me here.
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans -2.5, 237.5
Speaking of not making bets with my guts, all my projections and data agree with this pricing, but I think New Orleans can demolish Phoenix. There is not one player on the Suns who is going to be able to slow down, let alone stop, Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas from scoring at the rim. My only concern is the defense of the Pelicans which has been good in spots, but not against teams with this many good ball handlers, shooters, and creators. The threesome of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal is scary for any team, but especially for this Pelicans squad. Phoenix has underplayed expectations for most of the season, but they also haven’t had all three of those players for most of the season. I’ll have to eschew my gut’s opinion once again in this game and make no bets.
Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers -7.5, 227.5
I need to find a way to work the Lakers or LeBron into the “Not for Noops” title, because they are in this spot just about every day. Regular readers know that we have to wait because LeBron James I questionable, but we have an added surprise — it was reported earlier Friday that people in the league believe that Spencer Dinwiddie is currently on strike and as such is playing with minimal effort. I’m not even sure how to respond to that and I can only imagine what it’s going to be like tonight in the Brooklyn locker room. What if you were a fellow Net who’s wondered why Dinwiddie seems lax? How would you handle seeing him in the locker room? I really wish I could be there, but we’ll have to wait and hope a reporter is there to document it for us. As for the game itself, if LeBron plays, I project this game very close to what the market has. We have a potential locker room disaster and LeBron might not play, so we can’t in good conscience make a bet on this game for now.
