Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have a typical big Wednesday slate of NBA action, with nine games on the schedule. We have a lot of potentially close games as the biggest spread I see in our FTN NBA odds feed is 8 points, and most are below 4. I was able to find a few edges in our NBA betting model and a few more in our FTNBets Player Prop model. I narrowed them down to get my NBA best bets.
Best NBA Spread Bet
Los Angeles Clippers +5
This is the biggest edge in our NBA betting model. I know Lauri Markkanen is listed as questionable, but he’s been questionable for the last couple games before ultimately being ruled out. Markkanen has played at an All-Star level recently, so that would be a big blow to the Jazz if he cannot go. Utah has managed to win a few games without him, but they have not been by large margins and not against a team as deep and talented as the Clippers.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Julius Randle Over 12.5 Rebounds
I know this seems like a huge number, but Julius Randle has grabbed at least 11 rebounds in 11 straight games. Over the last five games, he has topped 15 rebounds in each of those contests, including 16 boards in 36 minutes of action against this same opponent last week. Over the last 14 games, Randle averaged over 40 minutes a night in the last three weeks. He averaged a double-double in under 36 minutes for the season, so it’s no surprise his numbers jumped up when the minutes did as well.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Jalen McDaniels Over 13.5 Points
Jalen McDaniels finds himself in an enviable position right now. Kelly Oubre is out, Gordon Hayward is doubtful, and it looks like Cody Martin is not going to play either. That opens up a lot of minutes at the forward spot that need to be covered. McDaniels played 35 minutes in the same situation last game, and I would look for him to continue to do so while the Hornets are shorthanded. McDaniels has scored in double figures in ten of the last eleven games. He’s attempted double-digit shots in half of them, including 15 field goal attempts last game. I like the chances of a guy to score 14 points if he is going to continue to play the minutes and see 12-15 shots, especially in a matchup as good as the one they have against Houston.
