Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Thursday nights in the NBA are often relatively small slates, but this time we have six games to dive into. There is plenty of star power on display in Thursday’s games, as we’ll get to see Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, LeBron James and more. There are a couple of games where we are going to have to wait for news to make any picks, but I’ve found a few bets so far that I am excited to share below. Without further ado, let’s dive into it.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet
Gary Trent Over 19.5 Points
Gary Trent has officially snapped out of his bad stretch of play and is once against the second option in Toronto’s offense. Trent has hit this line in seven of his last eight starts, with the one failure to reach 20 points being a 19-point performance against a good Portland defense. Beyond his recent trends, this is also a matchup play for Trent. Per FTN’s Advanced DVP tool, the Hornets rank 23rd vs. scorers, Trent’s main player trait. Our game environment model also loves this game, as Toronto’s implied projected pace is 1.7 possessions faster than normal for them. Their implied Vegas total for this game is 8.7 points higher than their season average. Lastly, Trent is coming off of a 24-point game vs Charlotte, and our NBA model projects him for 21.97 points.
Best NBA Assists Prop
Joel Embiid Over 3.5 Assists
This one caught my eye based on the film we have of the Sixers’ last matchup with the Thunder. While nobody thinks of Joel Embiid as a passer first, he is very capable of passing out of double teams, which leads to assists. In these teams’ last matchup, OKC doubled Embiid all night, allowing Embiid to reach 10 assists in the game. It is important to note that Tyrese Maxey and James Harden did not play in that game, so Embiid did have the ball more often than usual, but Embiid still averages 4.3 assists in games Harden does play. And even when Harden plays, Embiid is double-teamed at a top-five rate. I’m taking the over here.
Best NBA Longshot Prop Bet
Robert Williams To Record a Double-Double
Slowly but surely, Robert Williams is beginning to get back into a normal rhythm. While he rested in the last game, he played a season-high 23 minutes Monday against the Bulls. The Celtics are without Al Horford and have a big-time matchup against the Nets. While 30 minutes is probably out of the question, I think the Celtics will push Williams to 25-27 minutes, and in a game without Horford, Williams can get this in that little of time. Last season, Williams averaged 12.7 points and 10.8 rebounds in 11 games when Horford didn’t play (including one playoff game). He won’t play the 32 minutes he averaged in such games last season, but that is why this is +380 and not +150. I love taking a shot on this.
