Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
The NBA is not data-driven in the same way sports like baseball and golf are. In particular, we can’t evaluate individual matchups solely through calculations. However, we can still use both team level and individual statistics to guide our lineup-building process on a daily basis.
Here are five stats I want to build around in DFS for Wednesday.
1. 24.6%
This isn’t your run-of-the-mill stat. It’s Trae Young’s assist-to-pass ratio. An insane 24.6% of his passes result in assists. For context, among players with over 6 assists per game, the second highest ratio comes from his teammate Dejounte Murray… at 17.6%.
What does this tell us and why should we care about it? It tells us that Trae Young is never deferring. He is always looking to either score or facilitate, guaranteeing that his 34.9% usage rate will remain high.
2. 105.25
The Lakers’ 105.25 pace factor is easily the fastest in the league. It’s consequently no surprise then that the Pelicans have the highest pace boost on the slate. This is an enormous boost to Zion Williamson, who also stands to benefit from the Lakers’ No. 29 rebound rate.
3. 30.8
Since the start of last season, Davion Mitchell has averaged 30.8 DK points and 0.89 FPPM in games without De’Aaron Fox. He continued the trend with 34 DK points in 31 minutes last game and remains an outstanding value at $4,200.
4. 17.1%
The Clippers are turning the ball over at the highest rate in the league (17.1%). This creates plenty of opportunity for fantasy production for their opponents, as turnovers often lead to easy buckets.
Kevin Porter leads the team and is top-20 in the league with 1.6 steals per game. This game has a 1.09 stack rating, and KPJ is my favorite Rocket.
5. 119.5
The Grizzlies have the highest defensive rating in the league at 119.5, so Portland could end up being a key team on tonight’s slate, particularly considering the absence of Damian Lillard.
Anfernee Simons will get immediate attention, but I’m also quite interested in Jusuf Nurkic and Justise Winslow.
