5 Stats to Know: NBA DFS March 28

Good afternoon all; this is Eddie Fear stepping in for Joe Metz (Out – non-COVID=19 Illness) to deliver some informative and interesting stats for Monday’s NBA DFS action. I’m hoping to provide some insightful comments that can help you navigate this evening’s nine-game NBA slate.

These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.

Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!

Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.

Kris Dunn collects the fourth-most steals of any player in the NBA over the past five years. (min. 100 games played)

This entire article could be written about Monday’s late-night hammer game between the Blazers and Thunder, promising to be the evening’s match that commands the most rosterhip. A full five of my top seven plays for the evening come from this contest. 

I suspect Kris Dunn will be under-rostered based on his limited minutes and production these past two games, but there is a significant upside to be had a very tolerable price. Dunn is an excellent hand at picking pockets and should have ample opportunity to do so against an immature Thunder offense missing several of its key pieces. The Thunder yield more than eight steals to the opposition every game, more than every other team in the league excepting the Lakers, Cavaliers and Rockets. For his part, Dunn has collected 2.3 steals per 36 minutes over the last five years. That’s the fourth most of any player in the NBA who has played at least 100 games in that time, behind only noted burglars Gary Payton, Matisse Thybulle and De’Anthony Melton.

With Watford certainly absent due to injury and Greg Brown possible so, I think Dunn’s minutes get back into the high 20s here for an extremely shorthanded Portland team. If he manages to put up a big number, there’s a very good chance his Will Smith-esque fast hands are part of the reason.

Since the All-Star Break, the Cavaliers have the seventh-worst defensive rating in the NBA and the Magic have the second best.

Fantasy players and sports bettors are creatures of habit, and quite often to their detriment. Many have formed opinions based on the majority of this year’s contests that the Cavaliers are a defense to be avoided and the Magic one to be targeted. The stats don’t really back this up anymore if we look at the fairly decent 15- to 16-game sample since the break. Even with allowing monster games to Kyrie Irving and to that most morose phallus Saddiq Bey, Orlando’s defense has been incredibly solid (and was undersold most of the year, especially on the interior). Conversely, the Cavs have really struggled without Jarrett Allen as their very unique defensive alignment hasn’t been able to come close to sustaining their early season excellence without the Afrogod in the middle.

Plenty of coverage has ascribed these two teams with traits and trends no longer deserved as the season has progressed. Should you be considering players from either of these teams, make sure you’re up to date on what’s going on.

The Pacers have allowed 130 or more points in four consecutive games to non-tanking opponents.

While they managed to pose moderate opposition to the Rockets, Kings and Trail Blazers, Indiana has completely lost the ability to stop teams possessing any semblance of offensive acumen. If we ignore Portland, and dear lord wouldn’t it be nice to ignore Portland, this Pacers team is quite possibly the worst defensive unit in the NBA. Over the last two weeks they’ve given up 130-plus to the Raptors, the Grizzlies twice and their Monday opponent, the Hawks.

The spot is particularly rosy for Trae Young in this fourth meeting with Indiana (also known as the Nate McMillan Bowl). Young has averaged just under 50 DK points a game this year at about 1.4 points per minute. In three full games against the Pacers, those numbers are 61 a game at 1.8 per minute. To raise the ceiling (which is also the roof according to Michael Jordan) even more, both John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic played in two of the previous three matchups. Only projecting at about 15% owned, Young is my favorite spend-up Monday.

The Boston Celtics will have zero players available for them Monday with a usage of even 20% on the year.

The Celtics have been a juggernaut of late, but a rash of knee injuries (and possibly some spoiled chocolate milk) have decimated their roster for this game. Entering Monday’s contest missing Al Horford, Robert Williams, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, the Celtics will not be dressing a single player with league-average usage on the year. Yes, this is an improved Raptors defense of late, and yes, this game is taking place north of the border in Toronto, but someone on Boston is going to have to take some shots here. The line has surprisingly only moved to an 8-point Raptor advantage, but even in a blowout, it is difficult to imagine at least one of the Boston faithful not being in the optimal lineup in DFS contests.

While the starting lineup will give us some clarity, probably my favorite option for tournaments Monday evening will be Marcus Smart. It is a fun math problem to determine exactly how high to project his usage this evening.  His usage increases significantly for each of his fellow starters who are absent, in albeit limited sample sizes. Perhaps the most incredible (and thin) stat is his usage reaching an unworldly 40% with all four out in a facile 20-minute sample. 

I don’t think Smart presents enough of a threat to get full Nurse treatment, and if the lineup comes out how I expect, I think he will be the fifth-most highly rostered Celtic player (behind Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, Daniel Theis and Aaron Nesmith). Take Marcus and look wicked smaaaht.

Stephen Curry averaged more production against the Grizzlies this year than any other Western Conference opponent.

Of course, Stephen Curry is injured, but as many have remarked, Jordan Poole has been functioning as a “Steph-Lite” for this team. While Memphis has an excellent defense, their tendency towards transition leads to a very positive role against them for players of Steph’s – or Poole’s – ilk. Steph got over 60 in all three previous contests against the Grizzlies this year.

There are some wrinkles here to be considered here, Tyus Jones starting instead of Ja Morant does slow the pace to be sure. But the additional absence of Draymond Graham, Otto Porter and Klay Thompson should force an even healthier amount of usage onto Jordan’s shoulders, and I project him north of 1.3 fantasy points a minute. Should the Warriors be able to keep this within an arm’s length on the scoreboard, Poole represents another player owned only in the teens with a real upside.