Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Tuesday night NBA slate gave us a lot of blowouts and games that got out of hand, but the Wednesday DFS slate has seven games that are under six points for the spread. There are also surprisingly five games with totals that are over 230 points, which wasn’t what I would have expected just looking at the slate on the surface. Let’s dive in and highlight some of the best players on the slate.
1. The Bulls are allowing the fourth-highest 3-point frequency in the league
Not only are they allowing a boatload of attempts, but the Sacramento Kings are also seventh in attempts and ninth in field goal rate as a team. Part of those numbers come from Kevin Huerter, who’s shooting 40.7% on the season and is on a five-game tear of shooting 57.5% from beyond the arc. Now, he is strictly a GPP-only target because of the volatility that comes with him. Huerter tends to be a streaky shooter and if he’s not hitting, the Kings don’t hesitate to cut his minutes down as low as 16-18 minutes. Still, Huerter scores 0.91 points per minute and has a high ceiling in this spot. It doesn’t exactly hurt that Trey Lyles has been suspended as he has been over 20 minutes in the past three games for the Kings.
2. The Celtics are fourth in defensive rating but have a weakness to exploit
That weakness is they struggle badly against primary ball handlers, as the FTN Advanced DvP Tool shows us –
The Boston defense also allows the most points per game when they defend isolation, and Anthony Edwards is scoring 3.9 points per game. It’s a little tough to tell who will be available for the Wolves Wednesday since there are multiple players listed as questionable, but Edwards should settle in around a 34.0% usage rate and he scores roughly 1.25-1.35 points per minute. Most of the field reflexively says Boston has a strong defense (and they do) but there are ways to attack it and Edwards also scores 9.4 points per game from drives to the basket. With Boston missing Robert Williams, the paint defense is a little bit worse for Boston as well.
3. Jabari Smith has recorded three straight double-doubles
My lean for the Rockets would be that Alperen Sengun sits out, as he is listed as questionable and didn’t play Monday. On the season, Smith has only scored 0.96 points per minute without Sengun but he’s also played at least 36 minutes for three straight games. Additionally, the Lakers have a 119.2 defensive rating when Anthony Davis has been out this year. For context, the Spurs are dead last in defensive rating on the year at 119.2. The Lakers are a much more appealing matchup when Davis is out and they’re going to be lacking size tonight as they are also without Mo Bamba. This is a great spot for Smith to record a fourth-straight double-double along with getting Rockets exposure to pair with a (very likely) chalky D’Angelo Russell.
4. Jaden Hardy has played 37 and 41 minutes in the past two games
We’re just going to continue to ride with Hardy until the flames stop. Kyrie Irving has said it “doesn’t look good” for him to play in this game, which clears the lane for Hardy to log another 35-plus minutes against the team with the lowest defensive rating in the league. In the 231 minutes that Hardy has logged this year without the players Dallas would be without, he’s scored 1.06 points per minute with a 31.1% usage rate. That has climbed even higher in the past two games as he’s taken a combined 46 shots and scored 22 and 28 real points. The salary has climbed on FD but with Irving likely out, I’m still very much in for playing Hardy and his ceiling will only increase if Christian Wood and Tim Hardaway are out as well. It’s not as though the matchup is anything that should hold him back since they are 29th against primary ball handlers.
5. David’s 7-Day Stat points us directly to Stephen Curry against the Clippers
For anyone not in the FTN Discord, our David Jones has been giving out 7-Day Stats for about two months now. Let me tell you, he does not miss with these plays. The hit rate is absurdly high. Wednesday, he pointed out that the Clippers are allowing third-most fantasy points to point guards along with a ton of 3-pointers. It goes even deeper and further than that because, in the past 15 games, the Clippers are 30th against primary ball handlers, 22nd against scorers, 19th against shooters and 28th against superstars. These are all of the player types for Curry in the DvP Tool, and he’s scoring 1.45 points per minute without Andrew Wiggins in the lineup.
