5 Stats to Know: NBA DFS January 4

The NBA is not data-driven in the same way that sports like baseball and golf are. In particular, we can’t evaluate individual DFS matchups solely through calculations. However, we can still use both team level and individual statistics to guide our lineup-building process on a daily basis. Here are five stats I want to build around Wednesday.

1. 115.3

A strange trend is occurring across the NBA right now. The average offensive rating in the last seven games for each team is 115.3, up over three points from the season average. In fact, there are only six teams in the NBA with a season long offensive rating at least that high. 

This is especially surprising because pace is actually up slightly in that time, which is usually inversely correlated to scoring efficiency.

27 of the 30 NBA teams have higher defensive ratings in their last seven games than their season-long defensive rating. Turnover rates are down, but not enough to explain the increased scoring, which doesn’t have an immediate explanation. 

Aside from just being interesting, this trend has DFS implications. We should make it a point to shy away from chalk against Memphis and Washington, who have managed to improve tremendously in this time on the defensive side. On the other hand, it also means we don’t have to fear “defensive juggernauts” like Boston, who suddenly have a defensive rating over 115 in their last seven games after allowing virtually every OKC Thunder player to smash Tuesday.

2. 20

The Spurs allow the second-most points per game to pick and roll ball handlers at 20 per game. Surely, this goes a long way toward explaining San Antonio’s 29th ranking vs primary ball handlers. 

This is an elite spot for Jalen Brunson.

3. 61.1

Joel Embiid has had extreme home/road splits for much of his career, but perhaps never more extreme than in this season. At home in front of the energizing Philadelphia crowd, he’s averaging eight more DK points per game, at 61.1.

Embiid is a priority for me tonight given the home splits and the matchup as long as he’s able to suit up:

4. 1.12

Nic Claxton averages 1.12 FPPM, which is especially intriguing considering the fact that he played at least 30 minutes in four straight games before their near-40-point blowout of San Antonio. Chicago is 8th against rim protectors, but 21st against rebounders. While I do have interest in Claxton on DraftKings, I’m especially interested in taking the over on his 27.5 fantasy point prop on PrizePicks, where he averages 1.19 FPPM instead of 1.12 (due to his immense defensive upside).

5. 5.6

There’s no question that Charlotte is a great matchup for the chalky Steven Adams:

However, there’s reason for skepticism. Charlotte is 11th in the NBA in putback opportunities allowed per game at just 5.6. Since Adams is 3rd in putback opportunities per game (including an absurd 26 offensive rebounds in his last three games), this might not be quite the strength on weakness matchup people think it is.

That said, the defensive upside and increased minutes might be enough for me to play him even if I think he’ll be overused, provided I have contrarian upside elsewhere.