Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We only have three games tonight, but two of the games are dynamite matchups for fantasy purposes and in real life. We may not have a lot of injuries to deal with, and that’s always a different kind of challenge.
When we don’t have cheap value to jam in, it makes the builds very different. Let’s get into some stats to help us with this slate.
1. The Kings are 28th against crafty finishers
One of the two games that look the most appealing is the Kings taking on the Grizzlies, and Ja Morant is in a fantastic spot. Both teams are in the top 10 in pace and possessions per game, which is a great cocktail of fantasy goodness. Morant is driving 21.4 times per game and scoring 13.7 points per game, the third-most. Sacramento is only 28th in points allowed per game in the paint, while Morant is under $10,000. Granted, the Grizzlies are nearly injury-free, but even in a normal run of play Morant is at 1.48 points per minute.
2. De’Aaron Fox has taken 45 shot attempts in the past two games
The Grizzlies are the better defensive squad in this game, but De’Aaron Fox has shown his aggressiveness in the past couple of games. He’s also played 37 and 39 minutes, and this Sacramento team is coming together, sitting fourth in the Western Conference at the start of the weekend. Fox is no stranger to getting to the hoop with 14.3 drives per game while leading the team in usage rate at 28.7% and scoring 1.24 points per minute. I want a lot of exposure to this game, and Fox will certainly make the list.
3. Joe Ingles played 24 minutes in the past game
The Milwaukee Bucks acquired Joe Ingles last year from the Jazz after he tore his ACL, so they knew it would take a while for him to start playing again. For the first time, he hit 24 minutes, and while I don’t expect him to go for a double-double and 36.75 DK points, he’s only $3,400.
There is a chance that we are starved for value and could use a player like Ingles. There are some concerns since George Hill was out, although I would think Ingles wouldn’t have his role threatened by Hill. He could also be very chalky, but if he opens everything up he’s scoring 0.85 points per minute and hasn’t even felt great until this past game.
4. Robert Williams is tied for seventh in points per game on putback shots
I don’t make it a habit of going up against centers when they have to deal with Nikola Jokic, but this spot is a little different. Robert Williams is still coming off the bench for the Celtics, and his first stint came at 2:02 left in the first quarter of the last game. That lines him up for minutes on the floor with DeAndre Jordan instead. That’s a nice boost for Williams, and he’s already scoring 1.19 points per minute. He’s also playing over 20 minutes, and Denver is average in stopping putback shots via points per possession. Denver would have to mess with Jokic’s minutes (and they really won’t), and Williams can make his bones off the bench.
5. Nikola Jokic is scoring 1.67 points per minute
Even in a tough spot against Miami and Bam Adebayo in his last game, Nikola Jokic scored 60 DK points even though he scored just 19 real points. He’s leading the league in points scored per game in the post-up, and the Celtics are in the bottom three in points allowed per game in that play type. With due respect to Al Horford, he’s not stopping Jokic at this stage, and Robert Williams may not be on the floor with Jokic for much in this game. This is a big game in January in the NBA since both teams are at the top of their respective conferences, and Jokic is now under $12,000. With most of the field presumably focused on Giannis Antetokounmpo, we could have a big-time pivot in GPP settings.
