Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
It should be a competitive eight-game DFS slate for the NBA Friday, with seven of the eight games carrying a spread of 7.5 points or less. Half of the slate is two points or less for the spread so that’s going to make for some interesting matchups. Let’s talk about five players who could help us get to the top of the leaderboards.
1. Atlanta allows the fifth-most points per game to the roll man in the pick-and-roll
We’ve seen the salary for Evan Mobley come down by $700 overnight for this matchup against the Hawks, and he could be set up to have another big game. Mobley scored 31 real points Thursday night, and he’s scoring the eighth-most points per game as the roll man this season. Mobley is also scoring 1.01 points per minute this year and it would be great if he continues to take 19 shots per game.
2. Khris Middleton played over 24 minutes in the two games before the All-Star break
Even if he plays just 28-30 minutes, Middleton could be a strong value at $6,300 on DK and $6,000 on FD. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Pat Connaughton are doubtful, while Bobby Portis and Jae Crowder will likely be faced with restrictions for their minutes. Middleton has taken at least 14 shots in four of his past five games and without Giannis on the floor, he’s scoring 1.33 points per minute on a 37.6% usage rate. According to the FTN Advanced DvP Tool, the Heat are just 18th against point forwards and Middleton would be in that role even more without Giannis.
3. Anthony Edwards is scoring 1.41 points per minute without D’Angelo Russell on the floor
The matchup between the Hornets and Wolves offers Edwards a smash spot, judging by the Advanced DvP Tool –
Edwards has a massive 35.0% usage rate on the year without Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns while Edwards is over 70 touches per game since Feb. 8. He’s over five minutes of possession per game and as Adam Pfeifer mentioned on the Thursday stream, the actual time that a player possesses the ball can be an underrated quality. Edwards is also driving to the hoop 12.4 times per game, which will challenge Charlotte allowing 51.7 points per game in the paint, 22nd in the league. Edwards is likely to be my favorite spend-up option given the complexion of the slate.
4. Kevon Looney is still under $5,000 on DK and $6,000 on FD
According to the FTN NBA Game Environment Tool, the Warriors hosting the Rockets is the game to stack, and that’s in part because the Warriors are first in pace. It also helps that Houston is in the bottom five in defensive rating on the year and with the Warriors missing players for tonight, Looney is at 1.09 points per minute. The Rockets are just 16th against dimers but they can use Looney’s size to deal with Alperen Sengun, just as they needed him to face Anthony Davis Thursday night. The opportunity cost of playing Looney at center on DK is not as poor as was Thursday, so Looney is much more likely to find his way into my lineups Friday.
5. Devin Booker has a 34.2% assist rate in the scenario for Phoenix Friday
They are getting healthier, but Kevin Durant is still not ready to make his debut while the duo of Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson are in Brooklyn. That opens up a lot for Booker to take over and he fell one assist shy of a double-double in his last game played. Even more important than that was the Suns played him over 34 minutes for the first time since he returned from his injury and even though he shot just 6-16, Booker was right at 40.0 DK points. On DK, I will be working toward fitting Edwards and Booker together because Booker is under $9,000 and he’s arguably one of the best bargains on the slate. With the players missing from Phoenix, Booker has a 36.1% usage rate and 1.55 points per minute and if he’s chalky, I’m eating it.
