Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Among the 10 NBA games Wednesday night, we have one that is under 218 points for a total and one that is over 240, so we run the gamut. Every game is also under 10 points for the spread, so that shouldn’t be much of a concern for the DFS slate, and it offers a bunch of different spots to try and attack.
1. The Hornets and Spurs are first and second in Stack Rating in the FTN NBA Game Environment Tool
Not only are those two teams leading the Stack Rating, but this game also has the highest total of the night at 241.5. While we generally should be careful about spending a ton of salary early, this is one of the most appealing games of the night, and LaMelo Ball is someone that may lead me to break my general rule. His FanDuel salary is very low but he’s certainly in play on DraftKings. Not only does Ball score 1.39 points per minute, but he also shoots over 10 3-point attempts per game, hitting 36.6% of them. The Spurs have allowed the highest field goal rate from beyond the arc this year at 39.5% (the Pacers are 29th at 37.3%) and the ceiling is very high for Ball since the Spurs are 29th against primary ball handlers.
2. Alperen Sengun has averaged 32.6 minutes per game since the Kevin Porter injury
Sengun was very chalky in those days eight after Porter was injured, but that has changed over the past 14 days or so because the salary rose and he’s had some poor results. Most (certainly not all) of his poor games for fantasy can be traced to foul trouble or very difficult matchups, and the Thunder don’t fall into that latter category. Sengun is scoring 1.25 points per minute without Porter on a 21.7% usage rate while the salary is back under $8,000 on both sites. He could be a very interesting pivot player in a matchup that we’ve attacked throughout the season.
3. Collin Sexton scores 0.98 points per minute without Lauri Markkanen on the floor
Rarely do mid-day downgrades in availability end well for players, and that’s even more so when it’s the team’s last game before an extended break. I wouldn’t expect Markkanen to play this evening against the Grizzlies and that’s going to leave the Jazz fairly thin on the normal rotation we’ve been accustomed to this year. They just traded Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Besley so Sexton should be almost locked into a minimum of 32 minutes. The Grizzlies are third against primary ball handlers but the minutes can override that facet, not to mention Memphis plays at the fifth-fastest pace this year. The Utah side will offer some very affordable options if Markkanen does end up sitting out.
4. Nikola Jokic is scoring 1.79 points per minute without Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon
I’d be shocked if those two played Wednesday in the last game before the break as the Nuggets are leading the West and there is not one reason to push either player. Jokic gets to face what passes for the interior defense of the Mavericks and that includes Dwight Powell, JaVale McGee and Christian Wood. Dallas is already 16th in points in the paint allowed per game and 18th in rebounds allowed, so Jokic should have little resistance tonight. He’s back under $12,000 on DK and while you could argue to just play Luka Doncic on the other side of this game since he’s under $12,000 as well, Jokic has a clearer path to a ceiling game in my eyes.
5. Brandon Ingram is scoring 1.21 points per minute without Zion Williamson
While Anthony Davis being back on the court for the Lakers does help the defense, this is what matchup dreams are made of –
The minutes in the game Monday were a little disappointing and I felt that New Orleans may have overreacted to Ingram having four fouls. He’s played as many as 36 and on top of that, CJ McCollum could be out. Ingram will benefit from the Lakers ranking second in pace on the year and he’s shooting first, asking questions later. Ingram hoisted 24 field goal attempts without McCollum but even with him playing, Ingram was averaging around 20 shots per game. He has a 32.6% usage rate on the year without Zion and this is a pretty important game as New Orleans is currently seventh in the West and the Lakers are 13th, but they are only four games apart.
