Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA is not data-driven in the same way that sports like baseball and golf are. In particular, we can’t evaluate individual DFS matchups solely through calculations. However, we can still use both team level and individual statistics to guide our lineup-building process on a daily basis. Here are five stats I want to build around Wednesday.
1. 109.3
The first “stat” of the day is not a stat — it’s a projection. 109.3 is the highest projected pace for a game in our Game Environments Tool in well over a year. Indiana and Minnesota will be flying. Even on an 11-game slate, I will likely have three or four players from this game in my lineup.
Since Minnesota also turns the ball over over 15% of the time (league average is 14.6%), I will be looking for steals props for the Pacers on PrizePicks (use code FTN for a deposit match up to $100).
2. 29.7%
Stephen Curry is out with ankle soreness, leaving a 29.7% usage void for the Warriors. In fact, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green will join him on the sidelines, making Jordan Poole as close to a lock as you could ever find on an 11-game slate. I’m currently undecided on Klay Thompson, so I’ll be curious to hear what the guys have to say about him on the stream tonight and will have my own thoughts on him in the Discord chat for subscribers. My lean is to fade.
3. 7.1
Charlotte’s opponents block 7.1 shots per game, a full blocked shot above the second worst team in that regard. It’s no surprise, then, that Nic Claxton’s matchup looks phenomenal in our advanced DvP tool:
4. 35.5
In the last four games, Zion Williamson has averaged 35.5 minutes played. This isn’t a ton, but it’s a significant step up from his 31-mpg average prior to this stretch. Zion averages a robust 1.3 FPPM, as well, so an extra 4.5 minutes per game equates to an extra 5.85 expected fantasy points.
Detroit is also 27th in points in the paint allowed per game. If Zion’s hefty price tag makes him contrarian, I’ll have a lot of interest.
5. 25.9%
Minnesota’s “Big 3” of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell would be a good guess for their top three usage rates, but it would be wrong. Jaylen Nowell’s 25.9% usage rate is second on the team, and it fuels a strong 1.08 FPPM ratio.
In what could be the fastest game of the season, he should have ample opportunity to increase that FPPM ratio and could be a GPP winning value play if he’s given enough minutes.
