Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
For only being a three-game DFS slate, the star power is out Tuesday in the NBA, and that’s going to leave us with some tough decisions on who to play. As of now, there aren’t a ton of injuries to open up value as there was Monday either, so we may only be able to play one superstar per lineup, but let’s uncover some stats to see where we should be heading.
1. LeBron James has played in Cleveland three times as a Laker
Anytime LeBron goes back to Cleveland as a visiting player, there is a little extra fanfare and hoopla around the game. I feel like some folks throughout the day might point out that the last three games as a Laker in Cleveland have resulted in 62.5, 75.0 and 75.5 DK points for James. However, Anthony Davis has only played in one of those contests, so it’s always a bit of a clearer path to fantasy success for LeBron when Davis is out. He can have a monster game at any moment with a 32.2% usage rate and 1.41 points per minute, but I would say don’t be swayed by the narrative, especially since Davis is playing out of his mind right now.
2. Anthony Davis has taken 200 of his 368 field goal attempts from within five feet of the basket
Seeing the Cleveland defense on the other side of things is usually a reason to be cautious about playing against them, and with good reason. They are currently tied for the best defensive rating in basketball and the interior isn’t always where you’d want to attack. However, Cleveland has some cracks that Davis could exploit. They’re only 19th in rebounding while Davis is third in rebound chances per game at 19.5. Davis also has 11.7 paint touches per game, leading to 14.7 points per game scored in the paint and that’s easily the league lead. That’s a better fit than one may think with the Cavaliers since they allow a 64.0% conversion rate inside five feet of the basket. Even with the likely return of Jarrett Allen to the lineup, Davis looks unstoppable right now.
3. The Detroit Pistons are 26th against skilled centers
That’s not a stat that’s going to end well when Bam Adebayo is on the other side of the matchup. Since Miami played last night, we could see someone sit out from this game and Jimmy Butler has just recently returned to the team from a knee injury. They have been dealing with a ton of injuries as a whole so it wouldn’t be a shock to see someone sit. If it is Butler, that pushes Adebayo up to a 28.3% usage rate and 1.21 points per minute while the Pistons also allow 45.2 points per game in the paint, 23rd in the league.
4. Tim Hardaway has been starting since Nov. 27
Luka Doncic is incredible but a $13,000 salary puts a major constraint on your lineup, especially if we have but a few value players to lean on. Instead, getting exposure to Dallas in a cheaper fashion may be the way to go. Hardaway was inserted into the starting lineup Nov. 27 but played horribly. After that game though, the Mavericks stuck with him and he’s woken up from beyond the arc. In the four games since, he’s shot 24-47 from a 3-point distance and has played 31, 40 (overtime), 28 and 23 minutes. The last two games have been a blowout in one fashion or another but on a slate that’s not offering us much from the cheap perspective, we can continue to attempt to ride the hot hand in Hardaway. Dallas needs someone to help share the load with Luka and the Nuggets are 12th in 3-point field goal rate allowed.
5. The Dallas Mavericks are 30th in rebounds per game
Nikola Jokic doesn’t thrive on just rebounds, but that certainly won’t hurt him tonight when the Mavericks visit the Nuggets. He should be able to feast on the glass tonight and Michael Porter Jr. is still out, leading Jokic to have 1.69 points per minute. Coach Michael Malone also can’t figure out the bench unit since he benched guard Bones Hyland after five minutes in the last game so Jokic is getting leaned on as he was last season. In the past two games, he’s played 35 and 37 minutes and that’s hard to overlook for the late-night hammer. The way Denver is playing right now, there is almost just one path to victory and it’s on the shoulders of Jokic.
