Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’ve got another eight NBA games Saturday, and it’s an interesting DFS slate, since it looks mostly injury-free at the time of this writing. It’s the NBA on New Year’s Eve, so we’ll see how far into the day that goes. We can certainly get some plays that we like outlined to start building some lineups.
1. The Hornets are allowing the highest points per possession against isolation
There aren’t many teams that are worse to face than the Nets if you can’t stop isolation because both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are tied at 5.9 points per game scored. That’s tied for fifth, and they both have a usage rate of at least 29.0% and they score at least 1.18 points per minute. The Hornets are the perfect spot to challenge with gifted offensive players since they are eighth in pace and 27th in defensive rating and both players are interesting to me, although I would refrain from playing them together.
2. Luka Doncic is averaging 78.3 DK points in the past five games
I get that he went for 110.75 and that skews things, but he’s averaging a triple-double and they put his salary lower than most of the season That baffles me and the Spurs are dead last in defensive rating and ninth in pace, a perfect elixir for Doncic to continue his recent rate of play. The Spurs are also tied for the second-highest points per possession when they defend isolation (by 0.01 points) and Luka is scoring 9.2 points in isolation per game. He should be $13,000 with how he’s been playing this season.
3. Desmond Bane is under $7,000 on DK
The Grizzlies are playing the Pelicans Saturday, and the latter team played Friday as well. Bane played just over 28 minutes in his last game and started to find his shot with three makes from downtown. He’s shooting over 42% from beyond the arc if we take away these first few games coming back from a toe injury and the Pelicans will give him plenty of chances. They allow the seventh-highest frequency from a 3-point distance this season and even though they are second in field goal rate allowed, I trust Bane’s sharpshooting skills more and the salary leaves us room for a ceiling outcome in this environment.
4. Killian Hayes is still suspended
The Pistons will be without their starting guard for two more games including Saturday, and even though Hamiduo Diallo is back, there is a hole in the Detroit lineup that needs to be filled. Last night saw Saddiq Bey step into the starting lineup and he played over 30 minutes, which would make him a great value this evening. He took 13 field goal attempts and is a career 35.5% 3-point shooter. Bey is down to 32.2% this season but in the past six games, he’s sitting at 42.9% and the Timberwolves are a great matchup for him to get off shots behind the arc. They allow the fourth-highest frequency and the fifth-highest conversion rate, so Bey under $4,500 on DK has a lot of potential.
5. Malik Beasley scores the fourth-most points off a screen
The Jazz are hosting the Heat as both teams played Friday in different cities. Not only does Beasley score off the screen, but Miami is also allowing the fifth-most points in that play type. They also are allowing the second-highest frequency from a 3-point distance and Beasley can rack it up from beyond the arc. The shot can be inconsistent and he is just 10-42 across the past five games but he’s still shooting 36.9% from downtown this year, even with the slump. He might be coming off the bench for the Jazz, but he’s 10th in 3-point field goals attempted per game, and the salary doesn’t match the ceiling outcome for him.
