Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Friday’s 11-game NBA DFS slate has a ton of firepower to it and even though there are a few games with some blowout potential, there are a couple of elite environments that we’re going to want a part of. Let’s talk about five stats that can help build a lineup and who can be some of the main targets.
1. Nikola Jokic is under $11,500 on DraftKings
His past two games look like they’ve been very poor, but let’s look at those game logs. He’s played just 27 and 28 minutes because the Nuggets thrashed the Rockets in both. That’s less of a concern Friday, and there aren’t many players that can post 50.8 DK points while taking just nine field goal attempts. He’s scoring 1.69 points per minute when Michael Porter is off the floor and has a 27.3% usage rate while leading the team with a 38.5% assist rate. Atlanta is 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game and 23rd in rebounds, leading Jokic into a game that should be a smash spot for him.
2. Atlanta is missing John Collins and De’Andre Hunter
When those two players have been off the court, it’s been Trae Young’s time with a usage rate of over 49.0% he’s scoring nearly 1.80 points per minute. The true shooting rate isn’t crazy high either at 55.6% so that seems sustainable. Young is scoring the second-most points per game in the pick-and-roll as the ball handler while the Nuggets are average in points allowed. The matchup is a mixed bag since Denver is fourth against primary ball handlers, but they are 22nd against scorers and Young is under $10,000. If we get the proper value, stacking Young and Jokic could result in 115-120 DK points with a ceiling for more. Young has been listed as questionable for the game but if he’s out, it’s a simple pivot directly to Dejounte Murray.
3. Pascal Siakam is scoring 1.39 points per minute
When he’s been healthy, Siakam has been the driving force for the Raptors and he played 34 minutes in the past game. That should increase tonight by another four or five minutes while Siakam is seventh in points per game in isolation. The Nets allow the fifth-most points in that play type and are second in the frequency they face it. Since Siakam has a usage rate of 29.6%, I am interested in attacking this matchup.
4. Zion Williamson has taken 202 field goal attempts within five feet of the basket
Zion isn’t exactly working on his range this season, but if I had his skill set, I wouldn’t either. He’s shooting 65.8% on those attempts and even though CJ McCollum should be back for the Pelicans tonight, Zion is still at 1.39 points per minute and a 30.9% usage rate. Brandon Ingram isn’t active to split shot attempts with him tonight and the Spurs are dead last in defensive rating, dead last in points allowed per game in the paint, and 29th in field goal attempts allowed within five feet of the hoop. The salary is close to the highest it has been all year, but Zion couldn’t ask for a much better spot than he has Friday.
5. Zach LaVine scores 1.04 points per minute
It’s not been a banner season for LaVine but this game style suits him to perfection. Both the Bulls and Warriors play at a top-10 pace this season and the Warriors are still in the bottom 10 in defensive rating. The Warriors have also held the opponent to the lowest field goal rate in transition but they are facing it on 19 possessions per game because only the Rockets turn the ball over more than the Warriors. LaVine averages 1.28 points per possession in transition this year and he should have ample opportunity tonight in the highest total of the slate.
