Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We have a full slate tonight for the first time in a couple of days, as there are nine games, injuries and big totals all around the league.
There are a lot of moving parts to this one and a late-night hammer that looks incredibly appealing, so let’s get right to it.
1. The Kings/Wizards game has a 239.5-point total
I have some concerns about the Hornets hanging in this game on the second leg of a back-to-back, but then I think about what Nikola Jokic just did to this team last night:
Domantas Sabonis is not at the same level as Jokic, but he’s more than capable of a monster stat line. He’s scoring 1.31 points per minute on the season, and we’ve targeted centers against the Hornets for a long time. It bears fruit more often than not, and both teams are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating with the Kings ranking sixth in pace. I want players in this game, and LaMelo Ball is still super cheap for his potential, as long as he doesn’t sit out tonight.
2. Thomas Bryant is still $4,200 on DK
The center position has more questionable players than normal, but there are still many appealing players. Thomas Bryant has to be near the top of this list as the salary didn’t rise more than $200 and he went for 33.0 DK points, in addition to 34.0 DK points when he relieved Anthony Davis two games ago. Davis is going to be lost for a month, and Bryant will be starting for a while. The Suns could be very thin at center as both Deandre Ayton and Jock Landale could miss this game (Landale is already ruled out). Even if Ayton plays, the Suns are still 19th in points allowed in the paint and Bryant is still $1,000 too cheap.
3. The Oklahoma City Thunder are missing four players
They’re getting thin for the matchup against the Blazers, and I have my eyes on Isaiah Joe among other cheap options. Joe only has 46 minutes on the floor with the players missing tonight, but he has shown a 23.5% usage rate and 1.25 points per minute in the sample. The true shooting rate is up at 70.2%, so we should expect that to come down. But even if he’s more toward the 1.05 mark for points per minute, he’s affordable. The Thunder played him 26 minutes and that was with some foul trouble. The Thunder play at a top-five pace this year, and the Blazers have fallen like a rock for their defensive rating (23rd). This game is appealing on both sides, and the Blazers have some major value that could open up on top of that.
4. Donovan Mitchell faces the Jazz for the first time tonight
Not only that, Donovan Mitchell is still under $9,000, and I’m sure he’s going to want to remind the Jazz of what they traded away. Utah is just 17th against primary ball-handlers and allows the sixth-most points to the pick-and-roll ball handler. Mitchell has been doing a ton of scoring in that play type with 11.7 points per game, good for the third-most. The Jazz have also fallen to 25th in defensive rating and are playing at the 11th fastest pace, a big jump for Cleveland at 30th. We should be able to spend on whoever we want tonight with value players who already appear and whatever else pops up.
5. The Rockets are 30th against primary ball-handlers
If the Spurs sit out Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones becomes an even more appealing play tonight. The Rockets are also 23rd against dimers, and these teams are both in the bottom five in defensive rating this season. With Johnson off the court, Jones is at a 22.7% usage rate and 1.10 points per minute to go along with a 33.0% assist rate. Even if Johnson does play, Jones is hovering around 1.00 points per minute and the matchup is spectacular. The Rockets also allow the eighth-most points per game against pick-and-roll ball-handlers, while Jones is in the pick-and-roll at a 39.3% frequency.
