Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Following Kyle Busch’s victory at Auto Club Speedway, NASCAR makes the quick jog east to Nevada for the first of two races this season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Therefore, let’s wrap up action from the Pala Casino 400 this past Sunday, what happened at Las Vegas in 2022 and DFS expectations for this weekend’s Pennzoil 400.
Pennzoil 400 DFS Preview
Pala Casino 400 Wrap-Up
There are few real conclusions to be drawn from this past Sunday at Auto Club Speedway. First, drivers and DFS players flew in blind to Sunday’s race. Competitors like Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe had electrical issues that could have been easily resolved with a Saturday practice session, but alas, these problems went undetected until the green flag waved. Then it became a process of detecting, solving, and racing until the checkered flag waved. Unfortunately for 30% of DraftKings players, this meant having dead lineups just eight laps into a 400-mile race.
However, one thing that can’t go understated is that any supposed fall off that was projected to happen for Kyle Busch, in his movement from Joe Gibbs Racing to Richard Childress Racing, may have been greatly exaggerated. Busch has been in the running to win the Busch Light Clash, the Daytona 500, and could have run away with this race if a pit-road speeding penalty hadn’t sent him to the rear of the field during the first segment of the race.
An uber-motivated trio of Richard Childress, Kyle Busch and crew chief Randall Burnett could be hell for the Cup field this season as all three seek to show that this 8 team didn’t live or die by Tyler Reddick in 2022.
Pennzoil 400 — 2022
In race three of the 2022 season, Las Vegas became a continuation of what was witnessed the week prior at Auto Club Speedway. First, there was a dominant car, but it wasn’t who anyone imagined it would be. In the week prior it was Tyler Reddick. That Sunday in Las Vegas, it was Ross Chastain (opening with +8000 odds at BetMGM) showing that he was going to be a threat for all of 2022 as he led 83 laps after starting 18th, ultimately ending his day in third.
Secondarily, the litany of cautions continued as 21.9% of the 274 laps were run under caution with the average green flag run sitting at just 16.5 laps. However, unlike Auto Club, this Sunday was riddled with multi-vehicle wrecks with five separate multi-vehicle accidents. That said, there were three cautions for single-car spins too. Thus, tire issues seemed to clear up, but drivers were still encountering the same problems they had the week before.
Finally, it was another late caution that reset the race and let a late contender sneak in to grab the victory. The week prior it was Kyle Larson taking the victory. This weekend at Las Vegas, it was a tussle between Erik Jones and Bubba Wallace that set the stage for Alex Bowman to take two tires, along with his teammate Kyle Larson, and sit atop the lead in overtime. Larson initially took the lead, but Bowman was able to grab the lead with three to go and grab his first victory of the 2022 season.
Expectations for the 2023 Pennzoil 400
With 2023 as a gauge for this Sunday, it’s tough to draw any sort of conclusion from Daytona or Auto Club and predict how this weekend’s race plays out.
What we do know is that in the first year of the Gen Seven car, the top lap leaders in the two Las Vegas Races weren’t just the drivers that started up front. While the Fall race did see the driver starting fourth (Ryan Blaney) lead the second-most laps, but the other three drivers all started in the teens or higher. Compare this to the previous season where the two Vegas races saw the top lap leaders all start in the single digits.
As per drivers to watch, the first name that jumps off the board is Ross Chastain. Besides surprising everyone in the Spring race, he backed up that race by running second in the fall and leading another race-high 68 laps from the 11th starting position. Chastain showed that regardless of his starting position, he was going to find his way to the front. Another name to track through practice is that of Las Vegas native Kyle Busch who finished third and fourth in his two starts and to see if that carries over to Richard Childress Racing. After having the two best cars at Auto Club, it should be no shock to see them carry that momentum into Las Vegas.
