UFC 298 MMA Betting Odds (2/17)

The UFC heads to Anaheim this weekend for UFC 298, featuring a featherweight clash between undefeated contender Ilia Topuria and the reigning king Alexander Volkanovski. Topuria is currently undefeated at 14-0 and looking to collect gold this weekend. However, he has an arduous task ahead of him as Volkanovski is also an undefeated featherweight who has sent every challenger packing so far. Volk is coming off a surprising knockout loss to Islam Makhachev, while Topuria is coming off a dominating win over Josh Emmett. It was the second time in six fights that Topuria has gone the distance, and this will be his second time going five rounds in the UFC.

Another treat on the main card is the co-main event between Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa, who has been out of the octagon for nearly two years now. Costa’s last fight was against Luke Rockhold, which he won after a slugfest. Whittaker seeks redemption after a surprising loss to the new Champ, Dricus Du Plessis. Also on the card is the return of triple C, Henry Cejudo, as he takes on the Merab Dvalishvili after losing to his teammate, former champion Aljomain Sterling. Merab has been on a tear and sits on a nine-fight win streak. With a win this weekend, he extends to ten wins and should put himself in position for a title shot.

There are five fights on the main card and 12 overall. I’ve broken down my best bets for the weekend below. Odds are per FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Volkanovski vs. Topuria Odds

Alexander Volkanovski -125, Ilia Topuria +100

Undefeated (6-0) since entering the UFC, 14-0 overall as a pro, and has gone to a decision twice in his entire career, Topuria has been a wrecking ball on his way to the top. He joined the UFC in 2020 and immediately made a name for himself, defeating Youseff Zalal unanimously. It was the first time Topuria had gone the distance, and he followed up his debut with emphatic knockouts of Ryan Hall and Damon Jackson. With three wins in the UFC, he next took on Jai Herbert and almost suffered his first defeat. He was dropped in the first round and managed to survive the round. In the second round, Topuria ended the fight with a highlight reel combo that sent Herbert to the shadow realm. Bryce Mitchell was thought to be another tough challenge for Topuria, but once again, he showed another wrinkle in his game and dominated Bryce, ending the fight by submission. His most recent outing went five rounds against Josh Emmett, and again, Topuria displayed a new layer to his game, this time being his durability, boxing and gas tank. It was his first main event fight and the first time he would fight in championship rounds. Even in other promotions, Topuria had never been past the second round, so it was good for him to experience it as it leads to another five-round fight, only this time, it’d be for the strap and immortality. Topuria is a devastating striker, averaging 4.44 significant strikes landed per minute in 10 minutes of fight time. As I said earlier, Topuria has barely gone into deep waters; he’s been able to break every opponent the UFC, or anyone has put in front of him. Topuria also averages 2.19 takedowns per 15 minutes, and even though he rather throw hands, Topuria is also a Brazilian jiujitsu black belt and has a background in greco-roman wrestling. 

Volkanovski has been the picture of consistency since becoming the featherweight champion. He not only took on every challenger in the division, but he beat the division’s best, Max Holloway, three times! Volk’s only two losses in the UFC octagon are in the lightweight division to current champion Islam Makhachev. Outside of those losses, Volk has been perfect as a featherweight in the UFC, and his only other loss would be outside of the UFC early on in his career. Volk averages a relentless 6.19 significant strikes landed per minute, coupled with a 70% takedown defense. He also connects on nearly 60% of strikes thrown, and if the fight calls for wrestling, he averages nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes. Volk is proven and, indeed, a future Hall of Famer in my eyes. He’s wiped out a division and has challenged for the belt a weight class up twice, almost getting the job done the first time he fought Islam. His most recent loss to Islam perhaps can leave some doubt in the minds of some fans, but really, when you line up both competitors, the talent and skill level of the competition Topuria has fought is nowhere near just two or three of the fighters that Volk has fought. Max Holloway has only ever lost to Volk, and Islam Makhachev could demolish anyone Topuria has fought thus far. I don’t say that to disparage Topuria’s effort, and I say that to point out that while Topuria is undoubtedly a worthy opponent, he has yet to fight the best until now. 

I have issues with Topuria for a couple of reasons. For one, he tends to swing with so much power that, at times, it causes him to over-swing and leaves himself open to counters, and Volk is a masterful counter striker. Another problem is that because he uses so much power in his strikes, he tends to gas out the longer this fight goes on, which could lead to Volk taking over because he never tires and pushes a relentless pace. To me, the champ stays champ until proven otherwise. I also believe this fight goes into the later rounds as Topuria averages over two rounds of fight time, and Volk averages nearly seventeen minutes. If a finish does happen, it’ll be in the championship rounds when both fighters are taxed, and the experience for Volk shines through. 

Best Bets: Volkanovski-Topuria over 3.5 rounds | Alexander Volkanovski ML -125

Whittaker vs. Costa Odds

Robert Whittaker -250, Paulo Costa +190

Just like the main event, the co-main event has the potential to be the fight of the night and even maybe the year. Whittaker is coming off a loss to current champion Driscuss Du Plessis. In that fight, Whittaker looked great until he was wobbled and finished. It was surprising to see, as Whittaker usually has an iron chin and is durable. Now seeking redemption, Whittaker accepted the fight against the always dangerous Costa. We last saw Costa nearly two years ago. He fought Luke Rockhold to a bloody decision, and while he damaged Rockhold pretty badly, he still showed some problems with his defense and gas tank. In my opinion, Costa should’ve won that fight handily and instead turned it into an all-out war with a semi-retired opponent. Now Costa is up against a motivated former champ in Whittaker, and he won’t have room for mistakes like he did against Rockhold.

Whittaker is an elite striker, and at one point in his career, the only person better was Israel Adesanya. Whittaker is also a black belt in Brazilian jiujitsu, so any attempt at grappling by Costa should be put to rest quite quickly and will tax the gas tank of Costa the more he misses the takedown. Looking at the tale of the tape, both fighters are 3-2 in their last five fights, and Costa averages a blistering six significant strikes landed per minute but absorbs nearly the same number of strikes. Costa also defends 79% of takedowns, and while he absorbs a ton of damage, Costa is very accurate, landing 60% of strikes thrown. The biggest issue for me, though, is not the number of strikes he absorbs but his gas tank and whether he’ll be the same fighter the longer the fight goes on. Costa is the most dangerous in the first round, and the deeper the fights get, the more tired he usually gets. For that reason, as much as I like Costa because of his power, fundamentally, he isn’t up to par with Whittaker.

From a betting perspective, the -250 moneyline on Whittaker is warranted, but not my angle. I wouldn’t even put Whittaker in a parlay because of his possible Durability issues. The angle I like is for Whittaker to win late by finish or unanimously by points. Both fighters average over two rounds of fight time, and because of his lady performance, I expect Whittaker to be dialed in like never before and for Costa to look a bit out of his depth after being away for two years. 

Best Bet: Robert Whittaker in Round 3 or decision -120 

Neal vs. Garry Odds

Geoff Neal +186, Ian Garry -245

Another star on the rise who has been stirring the pot while climbing the ranks is Ian Garry. He takes on Neal this weekend after their initial matchup was canceled. Garry has to answer for some trash talk that occurred last year, but after watching Fight Week, it seems like Neal has taken the trash talk in stride and is excited about the opportunity to fight Garry. This matchup features power vs. finesse. Neal plays the part of the oower striker, while Garry fills the role of the technical striker. Now, Neal is also technical, but he’s known more for his steel chin and dynamite in his hands, and while Garry is the taller striker, Neal holds the reach advantage by one inch. It may not seem like much, but in a game of inches where Garry sometimes leaves his chin in the air, it could mean disaster.

Garry has been a pro since 2019 and didn’t join the ufc until 2021 after dominating the regional scene under the Cage Warriors banner. With Ireland behind him, some thought it was the second coming of Mystic Mac, but Garry has carved his path; he trains out of the Chute Boxe team in Brazil under head coach Diego Lima. It’s a good camp for a high-caliber striker like Garry, who seemed to lack a bit of Vigor when he first arrived in the UFC. Now on a six-fight win streak, and everything is going his way, is Neal, the guy to take the undefeated record from Garry? I don’t think so, and it’s mainly because of the amount of damage that Neal takes on compared to Garry and because this fight will most likely play out on the feet.

The chances of Neal finding a knockout are possible but very slim as Garry defends over 50% of strikes thrown his way. Garry also averages nearly seven significant strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 3.34 significant strikes. He is a high-caliber striker with the tools to beat anyone in the division. His last fight against Neal Magny displayed his talent as he picked Magny apart and put on a striking masterclass. Perhaps Neal can pull out his wrestling singlet and hope to close the distance, but it’s not likely as he only attempts 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes, and it’s far from accurate with his attempts. In fights where Neal’s opponents want to stand and bang, he does well, which is why he did so well against Vicente Luque and Santiago Ponzinibbio, but against calculated fighters like Neal Magny, Stephen Thompson and Rakhmonov, he was beaten easily.

Out of all the fights on the main card, this one is pretty easy to call because, to me, while Neal may hold the power advantage in his hands, he doesn’t have much variety, which makes him an easy target for a striker like Garry. From a betting perspective, I won’t be putting Garry on any parlays, so I won’t be touching the money line, but I do like Neal to be durable enough not to get finished early and hold out to get finished in the third round or lose on the score cards. 

Best Bets: Garry-Neal over 2.5 rounds -130 | Ian Garry in Round 3 or by decision +100

Cejudo vs. Dvalishvili Odds

Henry Cejudo +158, Merab Dvalishvili -205

One last ride for Cejudo after losing his return fight to Aljomain Sterling last year. Cejudo doesn’t want to jump into the fight game again to fight; for him, it’s about big paydays, big fights and legacy. In an interview this week, he stated that this fight is an “all or nothing” fight. If he loses, hell, once again, retire and enjoy life as a coach and family man. Cejudo came into the UFC in 2014 after a spectacular wrestling career.

At first, he would make his way to the top while seemingly remaining an unknown. Most of the fighters he beat early on are no longer with the UFC or were never relevant enough to have a career in the big show. Cejudo has only lost three times in his career. Two of those losses were back-to-back early in his career. His first loss was to former UFC champ Demetrius Johnson. His second loss was against Joseph Benavides, who was an outstanding prospect but now has retired. The third loss for Henry was against his opponent’s teammate, Aljomain Sterling. It was a return to the octagon after a long layoff for Cejudo, so losing a split decision can serve as a moral victory, but after watching that fight, I think it was a mistake for Henry to come out of retirement. Cejudo couldn’t establish his wrestling and never scored a clean takedown or a moment of ground control. He did have some moments where his striking looked great, mainly because Sterling isn’t a good striker.

Dvalishvili, on the other hand, in my opinion, is the better version of Henry Cejudo with a larger gas tank, better striking that carries power behind his strikes, and an insane fight pace that drowns all of his opponents. He has also shown superhuman durability in fights where he was rocked and could fight through the damage and take over the fight with sheer will. Another big reason why I think Dvalishvili wins is because he doesn’t face any real threat from Cejudo. Cejudo doesn’t have knockout power; he’s shorter by two inches and has a four-inch reach disadvantage, and in terms of volume and pace, Merab is also better. He averages nearly five significant strikes landed per minute compared to four significant strikes landed per minute by Cejudo. Dvalishvili also absorbs less significant strikes compared to Henry, who almost absorbs the same amount of damage that he dishes out. Dvalishvili, in my opinion, has all the bases covered in this match, and barring any early injury in the fight or something out of the ordinary, I expect this to be an exciting scrap between two high-level grapplers. It’ll probably become a kickboxing match early, but once Dvalishvili attempts takedowns, I expect him to run Cejudo over and dominate wherever this fight goes.

Cejudo has only been stopped once in his career, and I don’t think it happens here, but with four-ounce gloves, you never know. Still, considering this could be his last fight, I expect him to fight like hell to revive his career. Therefore, my best bet for this fight will be for Merab to win by late stoppage or decision. I also like Dvalishvili ML and the over 2.5 rounds prop as parlay pieces. This has all the makings of an instant classic, and I, for one, can’t wait for this main card. 

Best Bets: Merab Dvalishvili in Round 3 or by decision -145 | Merab Dvalishvili by points -115

Hernandez vs. Kopylov Odds

Anthony Hernandez -245, Roman Kopylov +186

Kopylov has only lost two times in his career, and those losses were at the highest level of the sport in the UFC. His first loss was to Karl Roberson late in the third round. Roberson was able to capitalize on the lack of grappling from Kopylov and secure a third-round submission. Kopylov would then lose again to Albert Duraev, who, like Roberson, was able to capitalize on the lack of grappling from Kopylov and cruise to a decision victory. Since those losses, Kopylov has gone on a four-fight win streak, displaying toughness, grit and the ability to fight through adversity and win. He has finished all four of his recent opponents, indicating a high level of striking that rivals some of the best strikers in the UFC.

Hernandez is the opposite of Kopylov, and he doesn’t like to spend much time standing; he attempts nearly seven takedowns per 15 minutes while throwing up nearly three submission attempts. “Fluffy” is a submission hunter, and with a win over Rodolfo Viera in his debut, he made quite the name for himself. To be fair, Viera gassed out pretty badly and had zero fight after the first round, so perhaps, while impressive, I doubt he can beat Viera again. Hernandez and Kopylov are similar in terms of the tale of the tape; they have the same height and reach and also average the same number of significant strikes landed per fifteen minutes. The couple stats where they differ are the most important, in my opinion, and could be the difference in the fight. For one, Fluffy absorbs damage and defends a lowly 46% of strikes coming his way. Another important fact is that Kopylov has a 92% takedown defense, and that should be enough to keep this fight standing or at least get up off his back.

To me, the value is with Kopylov, who has a variety of ways to win and isn’t one-dimensional. Also, if he can negate a handful of takedowns from Fluffy, it should frustrate Hernandez enough to cause mistakes and leave openings for his devastating power and kicks. Kopylov has won his last four fights by knockout, and I truly expect him to end this fight inside the distance as well. 

Best Bet: Roman Kopylov ML +196 | Kopylov-Hernandez over 1.5 rounds -150