Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event (9/11)

Inconceivable?

Welcome to my weekly NFBC Main Event recap article. Each week, I’ll dig into the top free agents added in this premier fantasy baseball contest, letting you know who was added in the most leagues, how much money was spent and more. In addition, we’ll revisit the top pickups from three weeks ago and even scan the Main Event overall standings to see who’s at the top.

MLB Counter = 88.3% of the season complete

What is inconceivable? Well, you might look at your league standings and say, “There’s no way I can end the season in a cashing position in my 15-team Main Event league, which requires a top-three finish.” Sure, it is hard to win a NFBC Main Event league championship. But whatever your current league position, take my word for it – the standings might look solid and stratified, but they are actually a lot more fluid than they seem. I’ve followed the Main Event carefully for three years now through this weekly article, and there are numerous examples of teams coming from 10, 15, 20 points behind in the final month to win their Main Event league (and this is true for any baseball rotisserie league of course). Inconceivable? Well, let me put it this way…

The top-30 entrants in the Main Event are listed later in the article – but with three weeks to go, here are are the top-five contenders for the 2023 crown and the only Main Event teams within 400 points of the top:

• Brian Slack and Dylan White
• Clark Olson
• Bob Catsiroumpas
• Rey Diaz
• Brandon King

Make Sure to Have Fun Over the Final Three Weeks!

Two FAABs to go, six lineup sets counting today and three solid weeks. This is the “Storming the Castle” portion of the season, so remember to have fun! It’s been a great season (and don’t worry about the moat)!

Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event: The Lawlar Won!

The No. 1 pickup this week was the lawman himself, Jordan Lawlar of the Diamondbacks. Lawlar is a blue-chip prospect with outstanding speed and is 21 years old. He was promoted to the majors almost exactly 26 months after he was selected as the sixth-overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of a Dallas high school. Lawlar was added in 40 Main Event leagues on Sunday as owners scramble for steals (he had 36 steals this year across AA and AAA).

The 10 widest acquisitions are in the chart below, and in addition to Lawlar, they also feature a possible closer – Tyler Kinley of the Colorado Rockies. Kinley recorded two saves in three appearances, so he’s a good bet to get the save opportunities the Rockies produce. The third-highest pickup was another rookie, Evan Carter of the Rangers, who just might replace the injured Adolis García on a full-time basis. Next on the list is Josh Jung, who might be back on Friday from his injured thumb to continue his 2023 campaign in which he’s hit .274 with 22 home runs. The rest of the top-10 free-agent pickups are highlighted by two Rockies hitters (Hunter Goodman, Elehuris Montero) and yet another hopeful in the Dodger rotation (Gavin Stone).

The Century Club: The Final 2023 Update

In the 25th FAAB run (see below), there was one successful $200+ bid – for Jordan Lawlar. As you can see below, this makes 541 total winning bids over $200 and 1,369 total $100+ winning bids, and this looks like it will be the final tally. We won’t be adding in the bids for the final two FAABs, as there are occasional high bids like this one that are out of proportion to the amount available.

The Wow Bid of the Week

So, who attracted the highest single bid of the week? The highest winning bid was for Jordan Lawlar with a winning bid of $311 (what?). Although that crushed the $8 runner-up amount, I’m feeling like this isn’t really a WOW bid. I think we’re into “why did you hold onto that amount of FAAB” bid territory.

• 3/26: Darick Hall $221
• 4/2: Dany Jiménez $363
• 4/9 Oscar Colás $372
• 4/16 Taj Bradley $557
• 4/23 José Alvarado $399
• 4/30 Tanner Bibee $504
• 5/7 Bryce Miller $468
• 5/14 Eury Pérez $415
• 5/21 Bobby Miller $329
• 5/28 Bobby Miller $412
• 6/4 Royce Lewis $429
• 6/11 Elly De La Cruz $650
• 6/18 Emmet Sheehan $178
• 6/25 Gavin Williams $228 (2)
• 7/2 Jordan Westburg $177
• 7/9 Colton Cowser $225
• 7/16 Aroldis Chapman $316
• 7/23 Christian Encarnacion-Strand $283
• 7/30 Giovanny Gallegos $155
• 8/6 Adrian Houser and Endy Rodríguez $150 each
• 8/13 Trevor Story $164
• 8/20 Hyun Jin Ryu $119
• 8/27 Jordan Wicks $356
• 9/3 DJ Stewart $77
• 9/10 Jordan Lawlar $311

FAAB Summary

In the first 25 FAAB weeks, Main Event owners have had 35,817 winning bids (so each Main Event team has won 45.1 bids on average YTD – 1.80 per week). Main Event activity did finally drop below 1,000 winning bids to the lowest level of the year (except for Week 1). This week there were 986 winning bids (1.24 per team). This is because with just two FAABs and three weeks to go in the season, there are naturally quite a few teams not active in FAAB. In terms of overall spending, Main Event owners have now parted with, on average, $948 of their $1,000 allocation. Comparing that to the last two years at the 25-week mark, that’s still more than the $936 spent in 2022 and the $932 spent two years ago. 

Spending This Week: Roughly $4.75 per Team

You can see in the chart below (the average amount spent per team column) that there was a huge drop in weekly spending in Week 13 – from $65 spent per team to $28. Since then, it has been at a lower ebb, as from Weeks 15-21 it has ranged from $11.75 to $21.97. But in Weeks 22 and 23, we finally dropped below double-digits per team, and last week it fell to $7.51 before this weeks scraping-the-bottom-of-the-barrel $4.75. With 27 FAAB periods and $948 spent in 25 weeks, owners who have an average amount left ($52) theoretically have $26 per week over the final two weeks of the campaign. But remember, the last two years, an average of $58 went unspent because of teams that fell out of their league races. I estimate that this year there really is only about $8-10 per active team remaining or $4-5 per week.

The Colosseum: Our Last Trip

Each week during the season, I take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. This is our last trip to the Colosseum. I don’t believe the pickups in the last few weeks of the season should be evaluated in the same way as those made during the bulk of the campaign.

In the chart below, you can see the results from the 22nd FAAB period. Cincinnati’s Noelvi Marte leads us off, and he provided reasonably good value over his initial three weeks – particularly for owners needing steals. The other stats were fine, so we’ll give him a thumbs up. The sad case of Stone Garrett is next. He got badly injured in the second game after his big pickup and is out for the season. This is an unfortunate thumbs down as a pickup for fantasy managers. Rookie shortstop Masyn Winn is next, and he hasn’t hit much. Although he is very young and there is hope for the future, he hasn’t produced enough in his first three weeks in the majors. Finally, there is Ryan Pepiot, who has been extremely solid in innings (16.0), wins (2), strikeouts (12) and ratios (0.56/0.44). The only question is how the Dodgers will use him over the final three weeks of the season. In any case, Pepiot is an easy thumbs up and ends our Colosseum battles for 2023 on a high note.

These four players bring the final total to 39 thumbs up for the season (44%), 36 down (41%) and 13 pushes (15%). That’s better than 2022, which registered a 39% thumbs up on these weekly pickups, and well ahead of 2021 (24%). So 2023, according to this approach, is the best year out of the last three. This is buoyed by a lot of relatively successful rookie call-ups, even though it was held back to some extent by the limited number of positive closer speculations throughout the year.

Overall Leaderboard: Revenge!

I thought I would give you all insight into Brian Slack’s approach in March. It seems that he was a  little upset with how he finished last year, and was looking for payback from the very beginning. He’s been in first place for two weeks now, and he’s telling all comers, “Hello. My name is Brian Slack. Prepare to Die!” I gotta say, he seems serious!

However, now in second place is a real threat, Clark Olson. Clark has steadily moved up (last week he was fourth) and has designs on the top spot, and says his fantasy team is not preparing to die, so there may be some conflict between Olson and Slack here. By the way, Mr. Olson also has the 17th ranked overall team – sheesh! In third place is Bob Catsiroumpas, down from second last week. Bob is still fully engaged and is telling everyone who will listen, “I just know I can catch Brian and Dylan and get into first – I just know it!” Unfortunately, Bob is making these statements in his local grocery store, and no one there knows what he is talking about. Rey Diaz has never led the Main Event in 2023, but this week moved up to 4th from 5th. I for one am not counting him out. He did meet with reporters this week to explain his “Say Hey” nickname – unsurprisingly, it is a homage to the great Willie Mays, and Rey claims as a youngster he could field just as well as Willie did  (of course it was in his local tee ball league, but still…) In 5th is Brandon King, up from 8th! Wow, great move Brandon! Brandon was the first to give John Pausma a problem this season, and now he has pushed John down to 6th. When asked for comment, John was heard to say “%$###$%%&**)# Brandon King!” Well, John is a competitor, that’s for sure…

My Favorite Martin (Gregg Martin) remains in contention in 7th, and the great opera fanatics, Robert Mirshak and Ian Kahn, have jumped from 15th to 8th. Can they go all the way this year or will they just celebrate a top-10 finish at the Met? Bill (I don’t make any gaffes) Gaffney is now 9th, and Michael Mager, the excellent player who led early in the season, is still doing very well in 10th place overall. Then in 11th is the famed Philippe Dussault, down just slightly from 9th last week. Phil won everything in 2021, and says there is “plenty of time” to repeat!! (Phil, you’ve got just three weeks, pal…)

Other notables include my auction nemesis, the quiet assassin Steven Weimer in 14th, Andrew Geller, the man who never lets up in 16th, former overall leader Steve Maier in 18th and the unassuming Scott Gilbert in 21st (he’s just a quiet guy who is never pretentious or arrogant). Then there is Kyle (on the Brink) Brinkmann in 23rd, Richard Briskin in 25th (still handling himself beautifully I must say) and former leader Eric (The Red) Christenson in 26th.

Champions Update

I like to keep tabs on our recent Overall Champions, because they have proven their mettle over long, difficult campaigns and therefore must be threats to do so again.

Philippe Dussault: As mentioned above, Philippe is amazingly in 11th overall after having been as far back as 275th place (out of 795 total). Come on Phil! This is a comeback for the ages!

Robert Cramutola: Bob has made a nice move. He was 160th, then 135th then 110th, but unfortunately he has drifted back to 142nd and now 175th. The back-to-back dreams appear over, but Bob, you’re a great champion and your name is etched on the walls of the Mirage Hotel (yes, they’ve taken it down by now but still, it was there!)

League of Legends

Shout-Outs: The Brute Squad

John Pausma is still cashing in four Main Event leagues, but he has company. Both John and Danny Bronski have two firsts and two seconds – wow!

With three cashing spots, we find the irrepressible Clark Olson (2 first; 1 third), the revenge-minded and overall leader Brian Slack (1 first, 2 third), the unflinching Douglas Gruber (1 second, 2 third), the man who is competitive in seemingly all NFBC categories Griffin Benger (1 second, 2 third), former overall Main Event Champ Glenn Schroter (1 second, 2 third) and Mr. Consistent Ned Donohue (3 third). Those eight fantasy players have seven first-place positions, seven second-place and 12 third-place positions. Excellent job gentlemen!

Sixteen other players are in two cashing spots, with Philippe Dussault (there’s that man again) and Eric Albright each winning two leagues. In fact, these 24 Main Event fantasy owners below have a combined 17 first-place positions (32%) and 59 cashing spots (36% of the 159 total available). There’s still three weeks to go, but right now the story of the season in the Main Event is Pausma, Bronski, Slack and Olson. They call these guys the Brute Squad for a reason!

Good luck to all the participants in the Main Event this week!