MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
IT’S GONNA BE MAY
MLB COUNTER = 17.5% of the season complete
In case you lost track of the calendar, the boys from NSYNC have a reminder for you. That means we can now get serious (wait, we weren’t serious before?) because a significant portion of the season (almost one-sixth) is now in the books. There’s still plenty of time to make moves, but don’t be too relaxed if you have a 15th place team…
So perhaps it’s a good time to look at how various MLB offenses are performing to date. We came into the season with a lot of strongly-held beliefs, but often reality steps in and causes us to rethink. Below I’ve calculated the OPS for each of the 30 MLB squads – divided into ranks against RHP and LHP. The strongest offenses, or the ones you might sit your pitcher against, are italicized. And the weakest offenses, the easy marks, are bolded. One major caveat is the stats against LHP are generally a lot smaller, so you can place lesser reliance on them. But nevertheless, showing both stats for each offensive unit presents an interesting point of comparison. Toward that end, I have listed them in order of their OPS against the primary factor of performance versus RHP, from the best against righties (ATL), to the worst (CHW).
Below is the highly-acclaimed scoring grid for offensive OPS – as 7 indicates great offensive performance against this handed pitching to 1 (umm, not really great).
| .850+ | Excellent | 7 |
| .800 to .849 | Very Good | 6 |
| .750 to .799 | Good | 5 |
| ..700 to .749 | Average | 4 |
| ..650 to .699 | Mediocre | 3 |
| .600 to .649 | Poor | 2 |
| Below .600 | Awful | 1 |
As you can see, we have five offenses that are pretty darn good against RHP, including the Padres, which surprised me a bit. I wasn’t impressed at the outset of the season with SD’s lower half of their lineup, but they have been producing. The top offenses against the smaller sample of LHP include ATL again (no surprise), but also BAL, CHC (the highest OPS vs. LHP at the time I analyzed this), HOU (despite their struggles), CLE (a pesky offense), NYM and AZ (almost as high as the CHC).
Most of the weak offenses are weak against all types of pitching (although rumors are not true that the Dodgers are considering pitching FTN’s Vlad Sedler against the White Sox, even though they have an unmatched level of ineptitude as the only team with an OPS below .600 against both pitcher types). It’s interesting to me that some good offenses (MIL and TEX) are not that great against LHP. We’ll see if that holds up over time.
UPDATED THROUGH THURSDAY, APRIL 25:
| TEAM | OPS vs. RHP | OPS vs. LHP | Difference (+ indicates better vs. RHP; – indicates better vs. LHP) | VS. RHP | VS. LHP |
| ATL | 0.837 | 0.793 | 4.40% | 6 | 5 |
| LAD | 0.808 | 0.735 | 7.30% | 6 | 4 |
| MIL | 0.785 | 0.621 | 16.40% | 5 | 2 |
| BAL | 0.768 | 0.803 | -3.50% | 5 | 6 |
| SD | 0.75 | 0.7 | 5.00% | 5 | 4 |
| TEX | 0.743 | 0.623 | 12.00% | 4 | 2 |
| WAS | 0.723 | 0.577 | 14.60% | 4 | 1 |
| KC | 0.718 | 0.661 | 5.70% | 4 | 3 |
| BOS | 0.715 | 0.718 | -0.30% | 4 | 4 |
| CHC | 0.707 | 0.867 | -16.00% | 4 | 7 |
| HOU | 0.697 | 0.773 | -7.60% | 3 | 5 |
| CLE | 0.697 | 0.826 | -12.90% | 3 | 6 |
| SF | 0.697 | 0.703 | -0.60% | 3 | 4 |
| COL | 0.697 | 0.672 | 2.50% | 3 | 3 |
| NYY | 0.695 | 0.709 | -1.40% | 3 | 4 |
| PHI | 0.694 | 0.746 | -5.20% | 3 | 4 |
| NYM | 0.694 | 0.76 | -6.60% | 3 | 5 |
| CIN | 0.683 | 0.71 | -2.70% | 3 | 4 |
| LAA | 0.682 | 0.715 | -3.30% | 3 | 4 |
| TB | 0.679 | 0.626 | 5.30% | 3 | 2 |
| TOR | 0.67 | 0.748 | -7.80% | 3 | 4 |
| SEA | 0.664 | 0.651 | 1.30% | 3 | 3 |
| DET | 0.664 | 0.656 | 0.80% | 3 | 3 |
| AZ | 0.661 | 0.866 | -20.50% | 3 | 7 |
| PIT | 0.657 | 0.716 | -5.90% | 3 | 4 |
| MIN | 0.657 | 0.72 | -6.30% | 3 | 4 |
| MIA | 0.652 | 0.516 | 13.60% | 3 | 1 |
| STL | 0.648 | 0.623 | 2.50% | 2 | 2 |
| OAK | 0.603 | 0.649 | -4.60% | 2 | 2 |
| CHW | 0.568 | 0.517 | 5.10% | 1 | 1 |
| MLB | 0.697 | 0.7 | -0.30% | 3.43 | 3.67 |
Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event: Turning the Pages
In FAAB #6 (our weekly look at how these top owners are spending their fictional $1,000 free agent acquisition budget in the Main Event), which was completed Sunday, April 28, the bidding was fairly aggressive, but still lagged past years. The top 10 widest acquisitions this week are in the chart below, and Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) was added in the most leagues (54 out of 57). Picking up on our discussion of offenses to target, Woods Richardson has the good fortune of lining up against the Chicago White Sox and their .568 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Second in the hearts of Main Event owners was Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has hit the ground running with a very early .400 batting average. There’s opportunity in the Cubs outfield if he can remain productive. The No. 3 most-added player was Atlanta starter Bryce Elder, who could be a stabilizing presence in the Braves rotation. But the big-upside play was Jo Adell, added in 46 leagues with no bids over $200 but 24 bids between $100-199. Adell is hitting .333 with 3 homers and 5 steals, which could be fantasy gold if he can keep it going. Our No. 5 widest player added was Bailey Falter, who struck out 8 over 7 innings of one-run ball against Milwaukee last week. As thanks, Main Event owners added him in 44 leagues with a bid as high as $100. Five other players were added in 42 or more leagues: Mike Tauchman of the Cubs (power and speed), Josh Rojas (SEA, hitting leadoff in J.P. Crawford’s absence); Slade Cecconi of Arizona, Ben Lively of Cleveland and Hunter Goodman of Colorado.
NFBC MAIN EVENT – MOST ADDED THIS WEEK:
| Player | Leagues Added | Highest Winning Bid | Lowest Winning Bid | Reason |
| Simeon Woods Richardson | 54 | 85 | 8 | Gets CHW next |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 53 | 355 | 1 | 4-for-10 with a HR |
| Bryce Elder | 49 | 140 | 1 | Gets LAD – will he stick? |
| Jo Adell | 46 | 171 | 33 | Hitting a lusty .333 |
| Bailey Falter | 44 | 100 | 16 | Gem against PIT last outing |
| Mike Tauchman | 44 | 64 | 5 | 2 homers Tuesday |
| Josh Rojas | 42 | 201 | 2 | Batting leadoff |
| Slade Cecconi | 42 | 101 | 1 | Solid vs. SEA; SD next |
| Ben Lively | 42 | 72 | 5 | Solid in first two starts |
| Hunter Goodman | 42 | 68 | 1 | Just 1-for-9 but a homer |
Winning Bids over $100 and $200
I’m also keeping tabs on players attracting the highest individual FAAB bids as well. In the fifth run on April 28 (see below), there were eight $200-plus successful bids, one more than last week), one each for the following players: Pete Crow-Armsstrong; Nolan Jones, Erick Fedde, Taj Bradley, Justin Lawrence, Tommy Pham; Kodai Senga and Josh Rojas. In addition, there were 75 bids of $100-199 scattered across the player landscape as owners searched for options for the upcoming week.
| FAAB Date | Winning Bids (< $200) | Winning Bids ($100-$199) |
| 3/24 | 1 | 9 |
| 3/31 | 58 | 43 |
| 4/7 | 1 | 23 |
| 4/14 | 13 | 80 |
| 4/21 | 14 | 80 |
| 4/28 | 8 | 75 |
The Wow Bid of the Week: A Crow with a Strong Arm?
So, this is the section where I reveal which player was the target of the highest bid this past Sunday, and it’s a player we’ve already mentioned. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s services were won with a very strong $355 bid (third-highest bid so far in 2024), which had no problem overcoming an unsuccessful runner-up bid of $22. Crow-Armstrong is now owned in 54 of 57 Main Event leagues.
- 3/24: Nolan Schanuel $200
- 3/31: Jason Foley $479
- 4/7: James McArthur $225
- 4/14 Brandon Nimmo $578
- 4/21 Wilyer Abreu $350
- 4/28 Pete Crow-Armstrong $355
FAAB Summary: Spending Muted
In the sixth FAAB week, Main Event owners successfully made 1,929 winning bids (the second-most so far behind last week) and have spent about $290 of their $1,000 allocation. This is significantly lower than the last three years at the six-week mark, but nevertheless it is the third straight week we’ve breached the $60 per week (per team) threshold. Main Event owners are ready to spend if they get some attractive free agents in the pool, but they have not been sufficiently enticed thus far. As you can see in the second chart below, this period traditionally is the highest per team per week, and although we’ve breached the $60 per week mark, we haven’t had those big spike weeks of $70-90:
- 2024: $290
- 2023: $374
- 2022: $316
- 2021: $384
The average Main Event Week 4 winning bid was $26.87, below previous years (which has been between $32-38 the last three years).
| 2024 FAAB Week | Total # of Winning Bids | Total FAAB $ Spent | Average Winning Bid | Average Amount Spent (per team) | Cumulative FAAB Spent (per team) |
| 1 | 310 | $4,929 | $15.90 | $5.76 | |
| 2 | 1460 | $46,330 | $31.73 | $54.19 | $59.95 |
| 3 | 1728 | $34,480 | $19.95 | $40.33 | $100.28 |
| 4 | 1825 | $52,908 | $28.99 | $61.88 | $162.16 |
| 5 | 2029 | $57,486 | $28.33 | $67.24 | $229.40 |
| 6 | 1929 | $51,835 | $26.87 | $60.63 | $290.02 |
| TOTAL | 9281 | $247,968 | $26.72 | $290.02 |
AVERAGE WEEKLY SPENDING PER TEAM (21-24):
| FAAB Period | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
| 1 | $5.76 | $8.46 | $11.29 | $9.89 |
| 2 | $54.19 | $63.55 | $51.24 | $86.71 |
| 3 | $40.33 | $70.01 | $65.29 | $85.95 |
| 4 | $61.88 | $86.51 | $62.57 | $67.98 |
| 5 | $67.24 | $67.77 | $53.82 | $67.41 |
| 6 | $60.63 | $77.52 | $71.32 | $66.39 |
| 7 | $93.31 | $83.64 | $47.16 | |
| 8 | $75.35 | $65.81 | $42.71 |
The Colosseum
| Four Widest ME Pickups from 3 weeks ago | Leagues Added | First three weeks stats |
| Blaze Alexander | 53 | .342 BA 2 HR 0 SB (7/10 R:RBI) |
| Oliver Dunn | 50 | .139 BA 0 HR 0 SB 1/1 R:RBI) |
| Will Brennan | 43 | .195 BA 3 HR 0 SB (8/6 R:RBI) |
| Ivan Herrera | 42 | .156 BA 2 HR 0 SB (4/4 R:RBI) |
Each week during the season, I’ll take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up), a bad idea (thumbs down) or simply a push. Three weeks ago, we had our third FAAB run, and as you can see from the above stats, we had one very solid pickup (Blaze Alexander). He’s produced a gaudy average and contributed two homers and some nice counting stats. He gets a thumbs up. Will Brennan has not been as good, but despite a mediocre average, Brennan has cranked three homers and has reasonably good runs and RBI – he gets a push. Finally, we get our first thumbs down grades of the season in Oliver Dunn (he’s really done nothing) and Ivan Herrera (he’s provided two homers in limited action but not quite enough to significantly help fantasy managers).
Main Event owners still have a strong leg up in 2024 with six thumbs up, two thumbs down and four pushes, which could allow us to surpass the final 2023 total of 39 thumbs up for the season (44%), 36 down (41%) and 13 pushes (15%). The 2023 good pickups were the highest since I’ve been tracking it last year, compared to the 2022 good pickups mark of 39% and 24% in 2021.
Overall Leaderboard: Schroter the Boater
Glenn Schroter, if you don’t know your history, is the 2015 Main Event Champ, and you can see that he has done well investing the money from that victory. Glenn isn’t being mean about it, but he says he does have a second mooring purchased for yacht No. 2. He moved from 12th to first overall this week and plans to stay there. Glenn has three Main Event teams, and all three are in the top 100 of the contest, so this looks like a tough man to beat. However, Erik Sviggum moved from sixth to second overall with his only Main Event entry and is not about to give in. Bradley Libros checks into third (he was eighth last week), Nicholi Knutson moved strongly from 14th to fourth and Nelson Sousa just won’t give up and resides at fifth, 20th and 32nd overall. Sheesh.
Among the other top-30 contenders, Dave Rhydderch is sixth and 18th, Andy Saxton is solidly in seventh, Chris Uram is eighth (dropping from third), Jason Santeiu is ninth (from 15th last week) and Matthew Davis rounds out the top 10 overall (he wasn’t even in the top 31 a week ago!).
A few other notables in the top 31 (the top 31 are paid an overall prize at the end of the season – see below table) include last week’s leader Greg Diehl (11th), Todd Hoppe (12th), Mike Ballschmiede (13th), Danny Bronski (14th) and past overall champ Robert Cramutola (15th). Three guys I recommend keeping an eye on are Jon Stadtmueller (24th), Clark Olson (28th) and Michael O’Brien (31st) – they’re tough and ready to move up the leaderboard.
But all 31 of these fantasy managers have gotten off to a terrific start, and that’s what you need in a big 855-team contest like the Main Event. But it’s a long season (especially long for those in the back of the pack!).
| Overall Rank | Overall Prize Money | Fantasy Manager | Overall Points | Points Behind 1st Place |
| 1 | $200,000 | Glenn Schroter | 7484.5 | 0.0 |
| 2 | $50,000 | Erik Sviggum | 7418.5 | 66.0 |
| 3 | $30,000 | Bradley Libros | 7395.5 | 89.0 |
| 4 | $25,000 | Nicholi Knutson | 7379.5 | 105.0 |
| 5 | $20,000 | Nelson Sousa | 7377.5 | 107.0 |
| 6 | $15,000 | Dave Rhydderch | 7219.5 | 265.0 |
| 7 | $12,500 | Andy Saxton | 7217 .5 | #VALUE! |
| 8 | $10,000 | Chris Uram | 7211.0 | 273.5 |
| 9 | $9,000 | Jason Santeiu | 7180.0 | 304.5 |
| 10 | $8,000 | Matthew Davis | 7166.0 | 318.5 |
| 11 | $7,500 | Greg Diehl | 7160.5 | 324.0 |
| 12 | $7,000 | Todd Hoppe | 7048.0 | 436.5 |
| 13 | $6,500 | Mike Ballschmiede | 7024.5 | 460.0 |
| 14 | $6,000 | Danny Bronski | 6915.0 | 569.5 |
| 15 | $5,500 | Robert Cramutola | 6885.5 | 599.0 |
| 16 | $5,000 | Leonard Ringle | 6883.0 | 601.5 |
| 17 | $4,000 | Chris Boudreaux | 6881.5 | 603.0 |
| 18 | $3,500 | Dave Rhydderch | 6873.5 | 611.0 |
| 19 | $3,000 | Stephen Ciepiela | 6842.0 | 642.5 |
| 20 | $2,500 | Nelson Sousa | 6809.5 | 675.0 |
| 21 | $2,400 | Eric Karlovic | 6748.0 | 736.5 |
| 22 | $2,300 | David Hinkel | 6730.0 | 754.5 |
| 23 | $2,200 | Brian Edwards | 6706.5 | 778.0 |
| 24 | $2,100 | Jon Stadtmueller | 6686.5 | 798.0 |
| 25 | $2,000 | David Miller | 6616.0 | 868.5 |
| 26 | $1,950 | Bill Gaffney | 6609.0 | 875.5 |
| 27 | $1,900 | Robert Cramutola | 6577.0 | 907.5 |
| 28 | $1,850 | Clark Olson | 6575.0 | 909.5 |
| 29 | $1,800 | Dohn Terrell | 6561.5 | 923.0 |
| 30 | $1,750 | Matthew Dugan | 6551.5 | 933.0 |
| 31 | $1,700 | Michael O’Brien | 6524.0 | 894.5 |
| Average Top 31 Overall Score | Average Top 31 Overall Score | 6711.0 |
League of Legends
Here are the 57 Main Event leagues with the current top three in the standings as of the morning of April 29!
| NFBC League # | LEADER – $7,000 prize | 2nd Place – $3,500 prize | 3rd Place – $1,750 prize |
| 1190 | Ryan Welborn | Gregg Martin | Dan Iverson |
| 1194 | Nicholi Knutson | Daniel DaSilva | Greg Miller |
| 1232 | David Miller | Ray Murphy | Kelly Uganski |
| 1233 | Danny Bronski | Andrew Sullivan | Matthew Shepherd |
| 1337 | Zachary Waxman | Daniel DaSilva | Robert Osgood Jr. |
| 1380 | Philippe Dussault | Anjan Chaklader | Michelle Smith |
| 1381 | Steven Weimer | Jackson Price | Michael Mager |
| 1418 | Neil Petersen | Christopher Torres | Stephen Prepas |
| 1419 | Bill Gaffney | Paul Hong | Jeffrey Biddle |
| 1427 | Robert Cramutola | Ian Peterson | John Pausma |
| 1438 | Dave Rhydderch | Abdulaziz Madani | James Anderson |
| 1443 | Clark Olson | Nelson Sousa | Jason Santeiu |
| 1460 | Erik Sviggum | David Hinkel | Zach Bettencourt |
| 1479 | Dave Rhydderch | Robert Beckman | Jordan Rosenblum |
| 1484 | Adam Warner | Zach Bettencourt | Matthew Shepherd |
| 1485 | Bill Gaffney | Abdulaziz Madani | Jacob Sebastiao |
| 1487 | Mike Ballschmiede | Brian Magnani | Ryan Holewinski |
| 1488 | Douglas Roth | Richard DiMondo | Brandon King |
| 1489 | Ben Tidd | Richard DiMondo | Tyler Jung |
| 1493 | Alan Mitchell | Robert Kahn | Paul Jager |
| 1516 | Matthew Davis | Mark Bendar | Adam Warner |
| 1517 | Dominic Rello | Jon Stadtmueller | Todd Whitestone |
| 1518 | Michael O’Brien | Joe Meyer | Jeff Campbell |
| 1519 | Kevin Hasting | Zachary Waxman | Danny Bronski |
| 1520 | Peter Christensen | Steven Weimer | Bill Gaffney |
| 1521 | Griffin Benger | Dave Shovein | Carter Gill |
| 1522 | Jeff Erickson & Tim Schuler | Chris Liss | Glenn Schroter |
| 1523 | Clark Olson | James Tomony | Michael Lins |
| 1528 | David Einhorn | Richard DiMondo | Jonathan Vriesema |
| 1539 | Bradley Libros | Andrew Geller | Scott Schonewolf |
| 1566 | Greg Diehl | Jeff Mitseff | Matt Leahy |
| 1585 | Leonard Ringle | Dave Sowa | Brent Grooms |
| 1586 | Mike Massotto | Chris Slack | Scott Gilbert |
| 1587 | James Maples | Ken Clark | Yancy Eaton |
| 1598 | Eric Drescher | Michael O’Brien | Robert DiPietro |
| 1605 | Nelson Sousa | Peter Marrero | Ben Fils |
| 1615 | Eric Karlovic | Doug Cassidy | Mike Cameron |
| 1634 | Michael Lins | Aaron German | Rian Lange |
| 1645 | Stephen Ciepiela | Bradley Beckman | Dave Rhydderch |
| 1646 | Ned Donohue | David DiDonato | Tony Messer |
| 1647 | Jon Stadtmueller | Stephen Fiore | Matthew McDonough |
| 1648 | Dustin Wagner | Darren Wasney | Randall Haines |
| 1649 | Chris Fessler | Jason Anthony | Ross Berg |
| 1650 | David Miller | Mark Kieffer | Austin Sodders |
| 1653 | Scott Waggener | Steve Brunn | Scott Fleming |
| 1658 | Chris Uram | Matthew Dugan | James Shriver |
| 1676 | Todd Hoppe | Jason Santeiu | Chet Lexvold |
| 1680 | Nelson Sousa | Lawrence Schechter | Jenny Butler |
| 1685 | Dohn Terrell | Shawn Gidley | Michael Wallis |
| 1692 | Glenn Schroter | Robert Brendler | Paul Jager |
| 1707 | Brian Edwards | Hiep Hoang | Zachary Viglianco |
| 1714 | Chris Boudreaux | Aaron Lawson | Mike Ballschmiede |
| 1778 | Andy Saxton | Matthew Dugan | Carter Gill |
| 1817 | Glenn Schroter | Zach Bettencourt | Gregg Martin |
| 1820 | James Hyler | Tom Rodriguez | Robert Giese |
| 1831 | Jason Santeiu | Nelson Sousa | Dan Leonard |
| 1837 | Robert Cramutola | Stephen Prepas | Michael O’Brien |
Shout-outs
The 26 players listed below account for 23 of the 57 first-place positions (40%) and 61 of the 171 total cashing positions (36%) – great job thus far!
So far, the most outstanding performance across the Main Events is Nelson Sousa, who has two first places and two second places. Congratulations Nelson! But see below as Bill Gaffney, Glenn Schroter and Dave Rhydderch are also doing terrific work!
Notables include:
Two firsts, two seconds – Nelson Sousa
Two firsts, one third – Bill Gaffney, Glenn Schroter, Dave Rhydderch
One first, one second, one third – Jason Santieu, Michael O’Brien
Three seconds – Richard DiMondo
Two seconds, one third – Zach Bettencourt
Two firsts – David Miller, Robert Cramutola, Clark Olson
One first; one second – Jon Stadtmueller, Zachary Waxman, Steven Weimer
One first; One third – Adam Warner, Mike Ballschmiede, Danny Bronski, Michael Lins
Two seconds – Daniel DaSilva, Abdulaziz Madani, Matthew Dugan
One second, one third – Gregg Martin, Stephen Prepas
Two thirds – Paul Jager, Carter Gill
Good luck in Week 7!
