Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: NFBC Main Event

IT’S STILL EARLY BUT…MLB COUNTER  = 5.8% of the season complete!

We all know that MLB made a host of changes for the 2023 season, most of which were designed to promote action and offense. So let’s take a quick look at whether those changes are manifesting more offense. I’ve tracked the runs scored, home runs and batting average since 2017, and of course 2019 was the high water mark for offense, with 4.83 runs per game; 1.39 home runs per game, and a .252 overall batting average. Since then, of course, hitting stats declined each year until 2022, when batters posted 4.28 runs/game; 1.07 HR/game; and a .243 average. However, so far this season, offense has jumped up – maybe not to 2019 levels but significantly above 2022. The early returns show 4.69 runs/game (+9.6%); 1.17 HR/game (+9.3%); AND A .249 batting average (+2.5%). Naturally, this has also resulted in poorer pitching stats (see second chart below) with a 1.35 WHIP early this season compared to a 1.27 mark last year (down 6.3%). 

Another key takeaway is the frequency of stolen bases thus far in 2023. Stolen bases had been languishing around 0.5 per game for a number of years until this season, and now are up to 0.7 per game! And the success rate is now over 80% as opposed to the mid-to-low 70’s. You can see how happy batters are about this!

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Interestingly, the pitching stats also show that strikeouts are up 2.5% so far in the young season, and walks are up even more (+15.7%). The latter just might be an adjustment to the new pitch clock as it is more difficult for pitchers to throw strikes at this new faster pace. 

Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event: KANSAS CITY HERE I COME!

As we gaze wistfully at FAAB #3 (our weekly look at how these top owners are spending their fictional $1000 free agent acquisition budget in the Main Event) we try to remind ourselves that this FAAB (held on Sunday, April 9th) is still at the beginning of a long season. The top-10 widest acquisitions on April 9th are in the chart below, and Kris Bubic of Kansas City was added in the most leagues (52 of 53) because of his solid two starts (1.64 ERA) in the early going along with a sparkling 13:1 K:BB ratio. Kansas CIty has not previously been where fantasy owners look for starting pitching, but you have to be flexible to win, right? The No. 2 most-added player was a little more obvious. Francisco Álvarez is the new splashy call-up by the New York Mets, so he of course attracted a lot of attention. The only caveat is that he currently is eligible only in the utility position (not at catcher), so fantasy managers will have to wait until he makes 10 appearances at catcher in the NFBC before deploying him at the more valuable catcher spot. Nevertheless, if he hits right out of the gate he’ll be helpful at any position in the active lineup. Three other players were added in 46 or more leagues: Matt Strahm of Philadelphia (now throwing well in the starting rotation), Bryce Elder of Atlanta (has a two start week this week) and David Villar of San Francisco (now getting solid playing time and showing power).

THE CENTURY CLUB: WINNING AN OSCAR?

I’m also keeping tabs on the players attracting the highest individual FAAB bids as well. In the third run on April 9 (see below), there were 27 $200-plus successful bids, 21 of which were directed at Kris Bubic or Francisco Álvarez. The highest bid of all was on Oscar Colás, who was available in just one Main Event league. However, there were several other large bids as owners were feeling flush with the large amount of FAAB available to them early in the season.

The Wow Bid of the Week

So, who attracted the highest single bid of the week? Well, we already gave that away as Oscar Colás took this title. The very strong $372 bid is now the highest successful bid of the 2023 Main Event season, and the winning owner needed to go big in this case because the runner-up bid was a solid $340.

• 3/26: Darick Hall $221
• 4/2: Dany Jiménez $363
• 4/9 Oscar Colás $372

FAAB Summary

In the first three FAAB weeks, Main Event owners have had 3,544 winning bids and spent about $142 of their $1,000 allocation. Comparing that to the last two years, the three week mark shows that owners were at $127 in 2021, while in 2022 it was $183. So it’s in the middle of those two totals but still a fairly high spending pace. The average Main Event week three winning bid was $31.04 in the most recent period, which was slightly lower than the $31.85 of last year and well below the $37.01 of two years ago. The number I’ll follow most carefully, though, is the average amount spent per team per week. In week three this year you can see this is $70.01 which compares to $65 in 2022 and $85 in 2021. However, this pace of spending can’t keep up for too long. Remember, there are 27 FAAB periods and $1000 to spend. Going at $60-70 per period will only provide money for 15 periods, so it will definitely slow down and it will happen fairly soon.

The Colosseum

Each week during the season, I’ll take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up); a bad idea (thumbs down); or simply a push. In the chart below, you can see that the 2022 record was significantly better than 2021, with 39% good additions as opposed to 24% in the previous season. This will start next week, as we’ll hit the three week mark for the first group of added players.

Overall Leaderboard: Mager Development

Michael Mager is an excellent fantasy manager. And yes, his last name is not pronounced “major (it’s MAY-GRR),” but you have to understand that I needed to make this joke no matter what. In any case, Mike leads the pack after week three and texted me that he finds the fact that others still think they could win the Main Event overall championship as “mildly amusing.” Well, I need to tell Mike that former Main Event overall champ John Pausma is not only second, but also ninth. This I don’t find amusing, John…John? (He’s also 58th but that’s gotta be pretty embarrassing…right?) Dave Hubbard is third and Ian Hubbard is 13th – our intrepid staff of reporters has not yet found out whether these two are related, but it seems pretty suspicious to me. 

Among the other fine top-30 contenders, Danny Bronski is 4th, former overall leader Robert Henke is 5th, Anthony Palavis is 6th, Dave Smith is 7th, Andrew Sullivan is 8th, and Bob Mazur is 10th. Not to be completely outdone are NFBC veteran Jeff Mitseff in 11th, and the perennial contenders of Brian Slack and Nickolaus Sackett in 12th.  

But all 30 of these guys are luminaries to me – even though we all have many weeks to go. It’s great to get off to a terrific start, and that’s what these top 30 have done.

Champions Update

I like to keep tabs on our recent Overall Champions, because they have proven their mettle over a long, difficult campaign and are therefore threats to do so again.

Philippe Dussault: Our 2021 Overall Main Event Champ finds himself in 72nd place out of 795 early this season. Phil doesn’t really worry about the standings this early in the season and just says that he hopes “the Main Event media” has gotten the message that he isn’t speaking on this particular topic until at least June. Well, thanks for that update, Phil…

Robert Cramutola: Bob is our defending champ and graciously has agreed to provide comments to reporters as the 2023 season unfolds. Bob finds himself in 75th right now, and I have to say this is much more impressive than being in 72nd and not talking to anyone until June. Bob promises that he will save some FAAB this year for the end game, although the system did reject his initial bid of $1200 for Matt Strahm this past week..

League of Legends

Shout-outs

Okay, John, I’m warning you – this is a highly competitive contest and you just can’t make a mockery of it – by next week I want you to back off for the good of the game! (Former Main Event overall champ John Pausma has three first places – sheesh!)

Other notables 

• Two firsts, one second – Glenn Schroter
• Two firsts – Anthony Palavis, Bill Macey
• One first; two seconds – Kyle Brinkmann
• One first; one second; one third – Danny Bronski
• One first; one second – Mark Srebro; Michael Mager; Robert Cramutola
• One first; two third – Bob Mazur
• One first; one third – Matthew Davis 
• Two seconds – Brian Slack/Nickolaus Sackett; Robert DiPietro; Douglas Gruber; Scott Slezak
• One second; One third – Philippe Dussault
• Two thirds – Clark Olson; Bobby Brendler

GOOD LUCK IN WEEK THREE!