The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/20)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown

Orioles (+176), Phillies (-210)
Total: 8.5 runs
John Means (L) vs. Ranger Suárez (L)

Three things to know

• The Phillies have been warming lately, logging a .337 wOBA and .198 ISO.
• The Orioles have been solid at the plate as well, posting a .328 wOBA and .189 ISO.
• One area they have struggled — a 26.2% strikeout rate over the same time period.

Best bets: Peek at a Ranger Suárez over here — he’s been quietly brilliant.

Texas Rangers at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Rangers (+166), Yankees (-198)
Total: 9.0 runs
A.J. Alexy (R) vs. Nestor Cortes Jr. (L)

Three things to know

• After whiffing 11 batters in that last start, can Nestor Cortes Jr. keep up his run of form?
• The Yankees have really been struggling, strangely — they own a .321 wOBA and 25.9% strikeout rate.
• The Rangers offense is not very dynamic — their .135 ISO and .318 wOBA is among the league’s worst.

Best bets: The Yankees are fighting for their playoff lives — with that motivation, I like them in a F3/F5 bet.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

Jays (-130), Rays (+110)
Total: 8.5 runs
Robbie Ray (L) vs. Shane Baz (R)

Three things to know

• Tampa has been slamming at the plate, rocking a .326 wOBA and .192 ISO.
• The Jays are still crushing the baseball, logging a .360 wOBA in the same time frame.
• What should we expect out of Shane Baz?

Best bets: This one is a bit of a toss-up for me. Can the over be this low with these two offensive teams?

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers betting breakdown

Cardinals (+188), Brewers (-225)
Total: 8.0 runs
Jake Woodford (R) vs. Freddy Peralta (R)

Three things to know

• The Cardinals have been inside the top-10 in wOBA and ISO.
• The Brewers have struggled at a .321 woBA and .154 ISO in the last 30 days.
• Can the white-hot Cardinals (L10: 9-1) keep up this surge?

Best bets: Freddy Peralta has been incredible this year — can he stop the Cardinal freight train?

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Astros (-220), Angels (+184)
Total: 9.0 runs
Framber Valdez (L) vs. Jaime Barria (R)

Three things to know

• The Angels have been horrendous at the plate, logging a .135 ISO and .282 wOBA.
• Houston is cookin’ at the plate, logging a .345 wOBA and 18.8% strikeout rate in the last 30 days.
• With Framber Valdez and his 69.2% ground-ball rate, can he dominate the Angels with his heavy sinker approach?

Best bets: With a bad Angels offense and a delightful Astros attack, plan on them in a F3/F5 bet.

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Braves (-188), Diamondbacks (+158)
Total: 9.0 runs
Huascar Ynoa (R) vs. Humberto Mejía (R)

Three things to know

• The Braves probably were expected to drop off offensively, but in the L30: .311 wOBA, .198 ISO.
• Arizona is one of the worst offenses in the league, ranking in the bottom five in strikeout rate, wOBA, and ISO.
• Huascar Ynoa‘s return to the rotation has helped bolster this team — can he keep it up?

Best bets: This screams same-game parlay over at FanDuel — Mejia has struggled mightily. 

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics betting breakdown

Mariners (+142), Athletics (-168)
Total: 8.0 runs
Tyler Anderson (L) vs. Sean Manaea (L)

Three things to know

• The Mariners showed some life this weekend — can they snap awake?
• Seattle’s .304 wOBA over the last 30 days has been a slight improvement, but it’s not a great mark.
• The Athletics and their .316 wOBA are in the middle of the pack. Can they surge to the top?

Best bets: The A’s sit 2.0 games out of the Wild Card. I’m betting they take this one on a F3/F5 bet.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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