The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/14)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown

Cubs (+172), Phillies (-205)
Total: 9.5 runs
Adrian Sampson (R) vs. Kyle Gibson (R)

Three things to know

• The Cubs rank 18th in team wOBA in the last month with a .318 mark.
• The whiffs for the Cubs? They are high, logging a 28.0% rate.
• The Phillies have been mediocre at the plate, posting .317 wOBA.

Best bets: Take the Phillies in a F3/F5 bet.

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals betting breakdown

Marlins (+120), Nationals (-140)
Total: 8.5 runs
Jesús Luzardo (L) vs. Erick Fedde (R)

Three things to know

• Jesús Luzardo has been up and down lately — which version shows up?
• The Nationals have been better at the plate, posting a .337 wOBA and only a 19.2% strikeout rate.
• The Marlins have struggled all year at the plate — and in the last 30 days, they’ve logged only a .273 wOBA and 26.4% strikeout rate.

Best bets: Vegas is confused, and so am I on this game. I’d stay away from this one.

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Yankees (-335), Orioles (+270)
Total: 9.5 runs
Gerrit Cole (R) vs. Alexander Wells (L)

Three things to know

• Gerrit Cole has been on fire as of late but left early last start. Will he be healthy?
• The Yankees have really been struggling, strangely — they own a .316 wOBA and 25.9% strikeout rate.
• The Orioles have ugly marks of only a .320 wOBA.

Best bets: This reeks of a FanDuel same-day parlay.

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Rays (+126), Jays (-148)
Total: 9.0 runs
Drew Rasmussen (R) vs. José Berríos (R)

Three things to know

• The Rays are among the league’s elite offenses, posting a .340 wOBA and .213 ISO in the last month.
• The Jays? They are even better — they’ve recorded a .371 wOBA and .229 ISO in the same time frame.
• The Jays are torching everyone right now. Can they push their way into the playoffs?

Best bets: No way this total is this low — smash the OVER.

St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets betting breakdown

Cardinals (+160), Mets (-190)
Total: 7.5 runs
Jake Woodford (R) vs. Marcus Stroman (R)

Three things to know

• Jake Woodford remains in the rotation with Kwang Hyun Kim injured. Can he stick?
• The Cardinals are about as average as it gets — a .320 wOBA and .175 ISO in the last month.
• Over the same time frame, the Mets have logged a .320 wOBA and .169 ISO.

Best bets: The UNDER. These offenses are not good and the hurlers have been fantastic.

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Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Rockies (+144), Braves (-172)
Total: 9.0 runs
Jon Gray (R) vs. Touki Toussaint(R)

Three things to know

• The Braves have been on fire at the plate, posting a .327 wOBA and .211 ISO in the last month.
• The Rockies have been solid as well, logging a .324 wOBA.
• Can the Rockies stay hot away from Denver?

Best bets: With the Braves closing in on a divisional title, I can’t avoid betting on them.

Houston Astros at Texas Rangers betting breakdown

Astros (-210), Rangers (+176)
Total: 9.0 runs
Zack Greinke (R) vs. Jordan Lyles (R)

Three things to know

• As Greinke works back into postseason form, what should we expect?
• Houston is cookin’ at the plate, logging a .345 wOBA and 18.0% strikeout rate in the last 30 days.
• The Rangers are woefully bad at the plate. They own a .317 wOBA and .150 ISO in the same time frame.

Best bets: This one could get ugly — take the ‘Stros in a F3/F5 bet.

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Padres (+160), Giants (-190)
Total: 8.5 runs
Jake Arrieta (R) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (R)

Three things to know

• The Padres have been the league’s worst offense in the last month, logging a .280 wOBA and .137 ISO.
• The Giants have relied on an excellent offense, recording a .335 wOBA and .199 ISO.
• Why is Jake Arrieta still pitching?

Best bets: These Padres are cooked — take the Giants in a F3/F5 bet.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+220), Dodgers (-270)
Total: 8.5 runs
Luke Weaver (R) vs. Tony Gonsolin (R)

Three things to know

• The Dodgers have really struggled at the plate — can they turn things around?
• The Dodgers have posted only a .304 wOBA and 23.0% strikeout rate in the last month.
• The Diamondbacks have been really bad lately — in the last month, they have logged a .298 wOBA and 23.5% strikeout rate.

Best bets: It’s hard to bet against the Dodgers — take them in a F3/F5.

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown

Red Sox (-142), Mariners (+120)
Total: 7.5 runs
Nathan Eovaldi (R) vs. Tyler Anderson (L)

Three things to know

• Boston has been slamming at the plate (L30: .336 wOBA, .195 ISO). Can they keep going?
• The Mariners have logged a .302 wOBA and .154 ISO in the same time frame.
• Nathan Eovaldi has been unreal for the Sox — can he keep saving this rotation?

Best bets: I think you have to take Boston here — and an OVER bet isn’t a bad idea.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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