The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/5)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Mariners (+172), Yankees (-205)
Total: 9.5 runs
Tyler Anderson (L) vs. Nestor Cortes Jr. (L)

Three things to know

The Mariners have massively cut down on their whiff rate – they have logged a 20.4% mark in the last week.
Can the new acquisitions for the pinstripes fix things? Let’s hope so, as they have been a middling offense all year, and they rank 18th (.304) in wOBA in the last week.
Nestor Cortes Jr. has been brilliant. Thankfully, with Gerrit Cole and Jordan Montgomery in COVID-19 protocol, he has been able to take the bump.

Best bets: Despite improvement by both teams at the plate, they are still struggling. I like the UNDER.

Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Guardians (+158), Blue Jays (-188)
Total: 9.5 runs
Triston McKenzie (R) vs. Steven Matz (R)

Three things to know

More fireworks Wednesday, as George Springer smacked another homer. Can they keep it up?
The Jays are an offense that’s a bit scary – they are torrid at the dish with a .207 ISO mark.
Triston McKenzie has got to command the strike zone better – he has an egregious 16.2% walk rate.

Best bets: Another same-game parlay, and find yourself a home run prop or two here. The Jays are on fire. (And check out Gilles Gallant’s Dog of the Day for some suggestions.)

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Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown

Pirates (+200), Reds (-245)
Total: 9.0 runs
Wil Crowe (R) vs. Sonny Gray (R)

Three things to know

Sonny Gray finally showed some upside in his last start. Can he keep this up?
In the last week, the Reds are on fire at the plate. They lead the league with a .237 ISO and .377 wOBA.
Wil Crowe is gonna be in trouble – he has to keep the ball in the yard, and his 1.88 HR/9 shows he hasn’t done it yet.

Best bets: A same-game parlay. Find some Reds home run props, too.

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Royals (+166), White Sox (-198)
Total: 9.5 runs
Daniel Lynch (L) vs. Dallas Keuchel (L)

Three things to know

The Royals have been in trouble this year, and their offense shows it – their 24.4% strikeout rate in the last week shows they are whiffing plenty and they rank third-worst in team wOBA.
The White Sox get another lefty – which feels very unfair for rookie Daniel Lynch.
Dallas Keuchel’s 14.2% strikeout rate is on pace for the second-worst mark of his career.

Best bets: I can’t bet against the White Sox and a lefty – snag them for a F3/F5 bet.

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Braves (-118), Cardinals (+104)
Total: 9.0 runs
Touki Toussaint (R) vs. Wade LeBlanc (L)

Three things to know

I am truly confused on what the Cardinals are doing – why trade for poorly performing arms like Jon Lester and J.A. Happ? Another one gets the mound Thursday with Wade LeBlanc.
The Birds have been awful at the dish recently – their strikeout rate is in the top-10 worst in the league, and they’ve recorded a .291 wOBA.
Wednesday was ugly, and I would expect more of the same – the Braves .324 wOBA without Ronald Acuña Jr. is impressive. Can they finish the sweep?

Best bets: Another same-gamer here – the Cardinals are just a bad team and I’d expect LeBlanc to get tagged like Lester and Happ did the last two days.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)