The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/11)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates betting breakdown

Cardinals (-172), Pirates (+147)
Total: 9.0 runs
Adam Wainwright (R) vs. Wil Crowe (R)

Three things to know

• Wil Crowe has been terrible this season – the righty gives up far too many home runs to be viable (2.08 HR/9).
• The Pirates have not been very good at the dish — in the last week, they have recorded a .290 wOBA and 26.7% strikeout rate.
• The Cardinals are showcasing almost no pop at the dish — a .131 ISO is one of the worst marks in the league.

Best bets: This screams same-game parlay on the Birds if I have ever seen one.

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Tigers (-118), Orioles (+100)
Total: 10.0 runs
Tarik Skubal (L) vs. Matt Harvey (R)

Three things to know

• The Orioles have struggled at the dish, and recently, it’s been more of the same with a 4.8% walk rate and 23.1% whiff rate.
• Detroit has also been bad lately — their .280 wOBA is bad but their 31.8% strikeout rate is even uglier.
• Tarik Skubal has an excellent 25.5% strikeout rate this season – but the 35.1% ground-ball rate is egregious.

Best bets: I’m pivoting to the OVER. These teams blasted the ball in rainy weather, so there’s no telling what Wednesday will hold.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Rays (+106), Red Sox (-124)
Total: 10.0 runs
Josh Fleming(L) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (R)

Three things to know

• What happened to the Red Sox? Their .309 wOBA the last week has been downright terrible.
• The Rays are the opposite — they are still smashing at the dish with a .364 wOBA over the same time frame.
• Nathan Eovaldi’s 2.77 FIP does not match his bloated 4.07 ERA, but his excellent 23.3% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate are elite.

Best bets: Seven late runs bashed the over here, but I would expect a lower-scoring affair. Take the UNDER.

Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians betting breakdown

Athletics (-154), Guardians (+130)
Total: 9.0 runs
Frankie Montas (R) vs. Cal Quantrill (R)

Three things to know

• Can Quantrill solve the righty-slamming A’s? They have been crushing lately with a .362 wOBA.
• Are the Guardians for real? They’ve been improving as of late with a .165 ISO and .332 wOBA.
• Frankie Montas has been ballin’ lately. In the last month, he’s whiffed 35 batters in 25 innings, including a 2.88 ERA.

Best bets: Take the OVER. The A’s bullpen was taxed for 8.1 IP Tuesday, so expect some runs here.

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Reds (+102), Braves (-120)
Total: 10.0 runs
Wade Miley (L) vs. Touki Toussaint (R)

Three things to know

• Wade Miley may not strikeout many, but that over-50% ground-ball rate is keeping him as an elite arm this season.
• The Braves have been better at the plate, but their 24.2% strikeout rate is certainly elevated recently.
• The Reds are as hot as an August Midwest summer, scorching the ball to a .382 wOBA and .251 ISO in the last week.

Best bets: The Reds — Touki Toussaint has been ripped his last two outings, and I think the Reds get to him here.

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs betting breakdown

Brewers (-270), Cubs (+220)
Total: 10.0 runs
Corbin Burnes (R) vs. Jake Arrieta (R)

Three things to know

• The Corbin Burnes breakout is real. In 2021, over 113 innings, he has whiffed 157 batters with a sparkling 2.39 ERA.
• A Burnes strikeout prop is very much in play – the Cubs have whiffed a whopping 26.5% of the time in the last month.
• The Brewers have shown improvement at the plate, but not much – they rank 19th in team wOBA with a .302 mark and sport a 24.8% strikeout rate.

Best bets: This is the largest mismatch of the day – a same game parlay makes sense, including some Brewers home run props.

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Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Blue Jays (-188), Angels (+158)
Total: 9.5 runs
Alek Manoah (R) vs. Dylan Bundy (R)

Three things to know

• The Jays are so deep at the dish – in the last month, they lead the league with a .192 ISO and .337 wOBA.
• What happened to Dylan Bundy this year? Homers, that’s what. He’s allowed a whopping 1.91 HR/9.
• The Angels have dropped off at the plate – in the last week they are second-worst in baseball in wOBA (.288).

Best bets: A same-game parlay, and grab all the righties like George Springer against Bundy.

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown

Rangers (+168), Mariners (-200)
Total: 8.0 runs
Sam Howard (R) vs. Tyler Anderson (L)

Three things to know

• The Texas offense stinks – in the last week, they’ve logged a .238 wOBA, and in the last month, they are the league’s worst with a .288 wOBA.
• Seattle continues to work on gaining it’s footing – in the last month, they are fourth-worst with a .297 wOBA mark.
• Tyler Anderson has been solid this season, and he could make for an interesting value against this Rangers team.

Best bets: The Rangers have been so terrible at the plate. Peek at some Anderson props along with a F3/F5 on the Mariners.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+220), Giants (-270)
Total: 8.0 runs
Merrill Kelly (R) vs. Kevin Gausman (R)

Three things to know

• Can the Diamondbacks be this bad? Over the last week they are second worst in team wOBA and have a massive 30.3% strikeout rate.
• The Giants offense has recently disappeared, recording a .287 wOBA.
• Can Gausman regain his form? He’s had a few rough starts, but his sub-3.00 FIP and 30%+ whiff rate this season cannot be ignored.

Best bets: I actually like a Gausman strikeout prop, but I’m curious about a F3/F5 bet here on the DBacks thanks to Merrill Kelly’s prowess.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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