The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/11)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates betting breakdown

Cardinals (-172), Pirates (+147)
Total: 9.0 runs
Adam Wainwright (R) vs. Wil Crowe (R)

Three things to know

Wil Crowe has been terrible this season – the righty gives up far too many home runs to be viable (2.08 HR/9).
The Pirates have not been very good at the dish — in the last week, they have recorded a .290 wOBA and 26.7% strikeout rate.
The Cardinals are showcasing almost no pop at the dish — a .131 ISO is one of the worst marks in the league.

Best bets: This screams same-game parlay on the Birds if I have ever seen one.

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Tigers (-118), Orioles (+100)
Total: 10.0 runs
Tarik Skubal (L) vs. Matt Harvey (R)

Three things to know

The Orioles have struggled at the dish, and recently, it’s been more of the same with a 4.8% walk rate and 23.1% whiff rate.
Detroit has also been bad lately — their .280 wOBA is bad but their 31.8% strikeout rate is even uglier.
Tarik Skubal has an excellent 25.5% strikeout rate this season – but the 35.1% ground-ball rate is egregious.

Best bets: I’m pivoting to the OVER. These teams blasted the ball in rainy weather, so there’s no telling what Wednesday will hold.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Rays (+106), Red Sox (-124)
Total: 10.0 runs
Josh Fleming(L) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (R)

Three things to know

What happened to the Red Sox? Their .309 wOBA the last week has been downright terrible.
The Rays are the opposite — they are still smashing at the dish with a .364 wOBA over the same time frame.
Nathan Eovaldi’s 2.77 FIP does not match his bloated 4.07 ERA, but his excellent 23.3% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate are elite.

Best bets: Seven late runs bashed the over here, but I would expect a lower-scoring affair. Take the UNDER.

Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians betting breakdown

Athletics (-154), Guardians (+130)
Total: 9.0 runs
Frankie Montas (R) vs. Cal Quantrill (R)

Three things to know

Can Quantrill solve the righty-slamming A’s? They have been crushing lately with a .362 wOBA.
Are the Guardians for real? They’ve been improving as of late with a .165 ISO and .332 wOBA.
Frankie Montas has been ballin’ lately. In the last month, he’s whiffed 35 batters in 25 innings, including a 2.88 ERA.

Best bets: Take the OVER. The A’s bullpen was taxed for 8.1 IP Tuesday, so expect some runs here.

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Reds (+102), Braves (-120)
Total: 10.0 runs
Wade Miley (L) vs. Touki Toussaint (R)

Three things to know

Wade Miley may not strikeout many, but that over-50% ground-ball rate is keeping him as an elite arm this season.
The Braves have been better at the plate, but their 24.2% strikeout rate is certainly elevated recently.
The Reds are as hot as an August Midwest summer, scorching the ball to a .382 wOBA and .251 ISO in the last week.

Best bets: The Reds — Touki Toussaint has been ripped his last two outings, and I think the Reds get to him here.

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs betting breakdown

Brewers (-270), Cubs (+220)
Total: 10.0 runs
Corbin Burnes (R) vs. Jake Arrieta (R)

Three things to know

The Corbin Burnes breakout is real. In 2021, over 113 innings, he has whiffed 157 batters with a sparkling 2.39 ERA.
A Burnes strikeout prop is very much in play – the Cubs have whiffed a whopping 26.5% of the time in the last month.
The Brewers have shown improvement at the plate, but not much – they rank 19th in team wOBA with a .302 mark and sport a 24.8% strikeout rate.

Best bets: This is the largest mismatch of the day – a same game parlay makes sense, including some Brewers home run props.

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Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Blue Jays (-188), Angels (+158)
Total: 9.5 runs
Alek Manoah (R) vs. Dylan Bundy (R)

Three things to know

The Jays are so deep at the dish – in the last month, they lead the league with a .192 ISO and .337 wOBA.
What happened to Dylan Bundy this year? Homers, that’s what. He’s allowed a whopping 1.91 HR/9.
The Angels have dropped off at the plate – in the last week they are second-worst in baseball in wOBA (.288).

Best bets: A same-game parlay, and grab all the righties like George Springer against Bundy.

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown

Rangers (+168), Mariners (-200)
Total: 8.0 runs
Sam Howard (R) vs. Tyler Anderson (L)

Three things to know

The Texas offense stinks – in the last week, they’ve logged a .238 wOBA, and in the last month, they are the league’s worst with a .288 wOBA.
Seattle continues to work on gaining it’s footing – in the last month, they are fourth-worst with a .297 wOBA mark.
Tyler Anderson has been solid this season, and he could make for an interesting value against this Rangers team.

Best bets: The Rangers have been so terrible at the plate. Peek at some Anderson props along with a F3/F5 on the Mariners.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants betting breakdown

Diamondbacks (+220), Giants (-270)
Total: 8.0 runs
Merrill Kelly (R) vs. Kevin Gausman (R)

Three things to know

Can the Diamondbacks be this bad? Over the last week they are second worst in team wOBA and have a massive 30.3% strikeout rate.
The Giants offense has recently disappeared, recording a .287 wOBA.
Can Gausman regain his form? He’s had a few rough starts, but his sub-3.00 FIP and 30%+ whiff rate this season cannot be ignored.

Best bets: I actually like a Gausman strikeout prop, but I’m curious about a F3/F5 bet here on the DBacks thanks to Merrill Kelly’s prowess.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)