The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/9)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles

White Sox (-136), Orioles (+116)
Total: 10.5 runs
Dallas Keuchel (L) vs. Jorge López (R)

Three things to know

Jorge López has really struggled on the mound this season, but the Orioles don’t have many great options – he’s walked 10.2% of hitters and allowed 1.56 HR/9.
López does not miss many bats – his 8.5% swinging-strike rate would be the second-lowest number of his career.
The White Sox don’t have Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert back, but they are coming soon, and that’s scary – they are fifth in team wOBA in the last 14 days (.325).

Best bets: A major mismatch here. Slam a F3/F5 bet here on the Sox and even consider some home run props.

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians

Royals (+124), Indians (-146)
Total: 9.5 runs
Brad Keller (R) vs. Triston McKenzie (R)

Three things to know

Brad Keller has been awful this season – he’s logged a 6.93 xERA in 87.1 innings and 35.8% hard-hit rate.
This Royals offense is struggling – they own an 85 wRC+ mark over the last two weeks.
Triston McKenzie will be recalled to start this game – but the righty has been volatile with a 31.2% strikeout rate and 20.6% walk rate.

Best bets: The OVER. Both teams will have plenty of runners on base.

Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox

Phillies (+108), Red Sox (-126)
Total: 10.5 runs
Vince Velasquez (R) vs. Garrett Richards (R)

Three things to know

The stuff has never been the issue for Garrett Richards, but the command has – his ugly 10.6% walk rate is supported by a lowly 60.3% first-pitch strike rate.
Vince Velasquez has been the same old pitcher – too many walks (12.1%), and too many homers (1.54 HR/9).
The Boston offense has been good, but Philly remains disappointing (17th in wRC+).

Best bets: The OVER. It’s hot, humid, and these two pitchers are bad. This could resemble a slow-pitch softball game.

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

Braves (-132), Marlins (+112)
Total: 7.5 runs
Charlie Morton (R) vs. Zach Thompson (R)

Three things to know

Rookie Zach Thompson has been incredible this season – spanning 24 innings, he’s logged a 32.0% strikeout rate with an impressive 7.0% walk rate.
Hitters are really struggling to make hard contact against Thompson – they’ve only smacked him for a 29.8% hard-hit rate.
Charlie Morton has been great lately – he’s rocked a 27.6% strikeout rate this season.

Best bets: Marlins Park has been a pitcher-friendly environment, and these pitchers have been fantastic. I am betting on the UNDER here.

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers

Athletics (-136), Rangers (+116)
Total: 9.0 runs
Cole Irvin (L) vs. Jordan Lyles (R)

Three things to know

Young lefty Cole Irvin hit some bumps in the road, but he’s picked things up – and one thing you won’t get is free passes. He’s only walked 4.5% of hitters this season.
Oakland has jumped all over starting pitching recently – they own a .173 ISO and 9.4% walk rate in the last two weeks.
The Rangers have been better at the plate, but they still strike out too much – they have a 24.6% strikeout rate in the last 14 days.

Best bets: With Irvin improving lately, a same-game parlay on the A’s (F3/F5/Moneyline) feels like a good bet.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Reds (-104), Brewers (-112)
Total: 9.0 runs
Wade Miley (L) vs. Eric Lauer (L)

Three things to know

Arguably the best two teams in the NL Central square off – and this will be interesting as the Reds rank fifth in wOBA, but the Brewers lag behind at 21st.
The Brewers are striking out at an intense clip – a 25.7% strikeout rate over the last two weeks.
He’s tossed a no-hitter this season, but Wade Miley owns a consistent 19.7% strikeout rate on the season.

Best bets: Both pitchers have been solid lately, and the line indicates Vegas is confused as well. I’d be the UNDER here.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Tigers (+198), Twins (-240)
Total: 9.5 runs
Matt Manning (R) vs. Kenta Maeda (R)

Three things to know

Is Maeda finally turning things around? In his last start, he was brilliant in seven scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts.
Matt Manning has arguably been one of the worst pitchers this season – he’s struck out only 7.4% of batters this year.
With that low strikeout rate, Manning is getting pounded, allowing a 46.4% hard-hit rate.

Best bets: Another same-game parlay. Manning has struggled a ton, and the Twins are still a top-10 offense.

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Rockies (+194), Padres (-235)
Total: 8.0 runs
Kyle Freeland (L) vs. Blake Snell (L)

Three things to know

These teams are certainly going in opposite directions – the Padres are one of the best offenses in the league, while the Rockies have been the league’s worst offense in the last two weeks.
The Blake Snell truthers have been very quiet. While he is still striking batters out (29.2%), he owns a 13.8% walk rate.
Snell’s 54.5% first-pitch strike is the lowest mark of any qualified starter.

Best bets: I like the OVER here. While the Rockies stink, Blake Snell has been terrible.

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners

Angels (-126), Mariners (+108)
Total: 8.5 runs
Alex Cobb (R) vs. Marco Gonzales (L)

Three things to know

Over 60.2 innings, Alex Cobb has been brilliant. He owns a 27.3% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate thanks to a nasty splitter. Don’t let the ugly ERA fool you.
Marco Gonzales has had his command escape him – he’s on pace for a career-worst 9.0% walk rate.
Seattle can’t help but striking out a ton – they have logged the third-worst strikeout rate in the last two weeks (26.7%). Free Jared Kelenic!

Best bets: Another great same-game parlay opportunity. Cobb has been delightful, Gonzales has struggled, and hopefully we witness another Shohei blast.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)