Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles
White Sox (-136), Orioles (+116)
Total: 10.5 runs
Dallas Keuchel (L) vs. Jorge López (R)
Three things to know
- Jorge López has really struggled on the mound this season, but the Orioles don’t have many great options – he’s walked 10.2% of hitters and allowed 1.56 HR/9.
- López does not miss many bats – his 8.5% swinging-strike rate would be the second-lowest number of his career.
- The White Sox don’t have Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert back, but they are coming soon, and that’s scary – they are fifth in team wOBA in the last 14 days (.325).
Best bets: A major mismatch here. Slam a F3/F5 bet here on the Sox and even consider some home run props.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Royals (+124), Indians (-146)
Total: 9.5 runs
Brad Keller (R) vs. Triston McKenzie (R)
Three things to know
- Brad Keller has been awful this season – he’s logged a 6.93 xERA in 87.1 innings and 35.8% hard-hit rate.
- This Royals offense is struggling – they own an 85 wRC+ mark over the last two weeks.
- Triston McKenzie will be recalled to start this game – but the righty has been volatile with a 31.2% strikeout rate and 20.6% walk rate.
Best bets: The OVER. Both teams will have plenty of runners on base.
Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
Phillies (+108), Red Sox (-126)
Total: 10.5 runs
Vince Velasquez (R) vs. Garrett Richards (R)
Three things to know
- The stuff has never been the issue for Garrett Richards, but the command has – his ugly 10.6% walk rate is supported by a lowly 60.3% first-pitch strike rate.
- Vince Velasquez has been the same old pitcher – too many walks (12.1%), and too many homers (1.54 HR/9).
- The Boston offense has been good, but Philly remains disappointing (17th in wRC+).
Best bets: The OVER. It’s hot, humid, and these two pitchers are bad. This could resemble a slow-pitch softball game.
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Braves (-132), Marlins (+112)
Total: 7.5 runs
Charlie Morton (R) vs. Zach Thompson (R)
Three things to know
- Rookie Zach Thompson has been incredible this season – spanning 24 innings, he’s logged a 32.0% strikeout rate with an impressive 7.0% walk rate.
- Hitters are really struggling to make hard contact against Thompson – they’ve only smacked him for a 29.8% hard-hit rate.
- Charlie Morton has been great lately – he’s rocked a 27.6% strikeout rate this season.
Best bets: Marlins Park has been a pitcher-friendly environment, and these pitchers have been fantastic. I am betting on the UNDER here.
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Athletics (-136), Rangers (+116)
Total: 9.0 runs
Cole Irvin (L) vs. Jordan Lyles (R)
Three things to know
- Young lefty Cole Irvin hit some bumps in the road, but he’s picked things up – and one thing you won’t get is free passes. He’s only walked 4.5% of hitters this season.
- Oakland has jumped all over starting pitching recently – they own a .173 ISO and 9.4% walk rate in the last two weeks.
- The Rangers have been better at the plate, but they still strike out too much – they have a 24.6% strikeout rate in the last 14 days.
Best bets: With Irvin improving lately, a same-game parlay on the A’s (F3/F5/Moneyline) feels like a good bet.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Reds (-104), Brewers (-112)
Total: 9.0 runs
Wade Miley (L) vs. Eric Lauer (L)
Three things to know
- Arguably the best two teams in the NL Central square off – and this will be interesting as the Reds rank fifth in wOBA, but the Brewers lag behind at 21st.
- The Brewers are striking out at an intense clip – a 25.7% strikeout rate over the last two weeks.
- He’s tossed a no-hitter this season, but Wade Miley owns a consistent 19.7% strikeout rate on the season.
Best bets: Both pitchers have been solid lately, and the line indicates Vegas is confused as well. I’d be the UNDER here.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Tigers (+198), Twins (-240)
Total: 9.5 runs
Matt Manning (R) vs. Kenta Maeda (R)
Three things to know
- Is Maeda finally turning things around? In his last start, he was brilliant in seven scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts.
- Matt Manning has arguably been one of the worst pitchers this season – he’s struck out only 7.4% of batters this year.
- With that low strikeout rate, Manning is getting pounded, allowing a 46.4% hard-hit rate.
Best bets: Another same-game parlay. Manning has struggled a ton, and the Twins are still a top-10 offense.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Rockies (+194), Padres (-235)
Total: 8.0 runs
Kyle Freeland (L) vs. Blake Snell (L)
Three things to know
- These teams are certainly going in opposite directions – the Padres are one of the best offenses in the league, while the Rockies have been the league’s worst offense in the last two weeks.
- The Blake Snell truthers have been very quiet. While he is still striking batters out (29.2%), he owns a 13.8% walk rate.
- Snell’s 54.5% first-pitch strike is the lowest mark of any qualified starter.
Best bets: I like the OVER here. While the Rockies stink, Blake Snell has been terrible.
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Angels (-126), Mariners (+108)
Total: 8.5 runs
Alex Cobb (R) vs. Marco Gonzales (L)
Three things to know
- Over 60.2 innings, Alex Cobb has been brilliant. He owns a 27.3% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate thanks to a nasty splitter. Don’t let the ugly ERA fool you.
- Marco Gonzales has had his command escape him – he’s on pace for a career-worst 9.0% walk rate.
- Seattle can’t help but striking out a ton – they have logged the third-worst strikeout rate in the last two weeks (26.7%). Free Jared Kelenic!
Best bets: Another great same-game parlay opportunity. Cobb has been delightful, Gonzales has struggled, and hopefully we witness another Shohei blast.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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