The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/8)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

Blue Jays (-215), Orioles (+180)
Total: 10.5 runs
Alek Manoah (R) vs. Keegan Akin (L)

Three things to know

In 36.2 innings, Alek Manoah has been a boss – he’s recorded a 29.6% strikeout rate in his rookie campaign.
One place where Manoah has struggled in the long ball – he’s allowed a whopping 1.74 HR/9 this year.
Keegan Akin has not performed to that same level – he’s been tattooed for a 7.46 ERA and 1.98 HR/9 in 41 innings.

Best bets: The Jays in Camden? Yes please. The OVER is massive, so that could be scary, but a Jays F3/F5 bet and some home run props are juicy as hell.

Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians

Royals (+116), Indians (-136)
Total: 9.0 runs
Danny Duffy (L) vs. Zach Plesac (R)

Three things to know

Zach Plesac returns after a bizarre injury – how long will he pitch?
Prior to his injury, Danny Duffy was putting together a Cy Young type of season – he owns a 2.60 ERA and 26.3% strikeout rate in 2021.
This Royals offense is struggling – they own a wRC+ of 85 over the last two weeks.

Best bets: A same-game parlay here seems obvious. If Plesac is ready to rock, this could get out of hand.

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets

Pirates (+152), Mets (-180)
Total: 7.5 runs
JT Brubaker (R) vs. Taijuan Walker (R)

Three things to know

JT Brubaker may be the best pitcher you’ve never heard of. He’s posted a 23.4% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate this year.
Coming back from a major arm injury, Taijuan Walker has struck out 25.9% of hitters in 85 innings this season.
Francisco Lindor is finally waking up at the dish – since June, he’s posted a .180 ISO and 10.8% walk rate.

Best bets: I like the UNDER here. Both pitchers have been sneaky good and continue to improve.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs

Phillies (-102), Cubs (-116)
Total: 7.5 runs
Zach Eflin (R) vs. Adbert Alzolay (R)

Three things to know

Quietly, Zach Eflin has had a great 2021 – his 3.66 FIP ranks him inside the top 30 of qualified starters.
Adbert Alzolay heavily leans on a slider – he throws it 46.9% of the time over his 72.1 innings.
The Cubs need to put the ball in play more – they have whiffed over 30% of the time in the last two weeks.

Best bets: The OVER. The wind be damned, these teams are slamming the ball in this series.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Tigers (+108), Twins (-126)
Total: 9.5 runs
Tarik Skubal (L) vs. J.A. Happ (L)

Three things to know

While the Tigers have struggled in total offensively, they’ve actually been far better as of late. Over the last two weeks, they have logged a 10.8% walk rate and a 115 wRC+.
Tarik Skubal has quietly put together a very strong rookie campaign. Over 82.2 innings pitched, he’s recorded a 27.6% strikeout rate.
The Twins are certainly going to test Skubal – they may be out of contention, but they rank seventh in the league in team wOBA.

Best bets: This is going to be an offensive show. I like both teams to score runs despite Skubal’s recent excellence. Play the OVER.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Reds (-108), Brewers (-108)
Total: 8.5 runs
Tyler Mahle (R) vs. Adrian Houser (R)

Three things to know

As the Reds continue to get healthy, this offense is heating up at the dish. They have been one of the league’s best attacks and Jonathan India as table-setter has helped a lot.
Adrian Houser has really struggled with his control and command. He’s logged a 9.8% walk rate this season.
Houser’s 43.3% hard-hit rate would be the worst mark of his career.

Best bets: The OVER. Both pitchers have been decent, but the offenses are good.

Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres

Nationals (+124), Padres (-146)
Total: 7.0 runs
Max Scherzer (R) vs. Yu Darvish (R)

Three things to know

The Nats have been heating up lately at the plate. Over the last two weeks, they rank fifth best in team wOBA and wRC+.
In terms of strikeout rate, these arms are two of the league’s elite. Scherzer ranks fourth (35.5%) and Darvish ranks 12th (30.6%) in terms of qualified starters.
Not only do they rank among the league’s best in terms of ERA, but also in with estimated indicators like FIP – Scherzer is 12th, and Darvish is 15th.

Best bets: This is going to be an awesome matchup if you like pitching. It will be interesting to see if they can hold these offenses in check – I’d target strikeout props here.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)