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Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Blue Jays (-215), Orioles (+180)
Total: 10.5 runs
Alek Manoah (R) vs. Keegan Akin (L)
Three things to know
- In 36.2 innings, Alek Manoah has been a boss – he’s recorded a 29.6% strikeout rate in his rookie campaign.
- One place where Manoah has struggled in the long ball – he’s allowed a whopping 1.74 HR/9 this year.
- Keegan Akin has not performed to that same level – he’s been tattooed for a 7.46 ERA and 1.98 HR/9 in 41 innings.
Best bets: The Jays in Camden? Yes please. The OVER is massive, so that could be scary, but a Jays F3/F5 bet and some home run props are juicy as hell.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Royals (+116), Indians (-136)
Total: 9.0 runs
Danny Duffy (L) vs. Zach Plesac (R)
Three things to know
- Zach Plesac returns after a bizarre injury – how long will he pitch?
- Prior to his injury, Danny Duffy was putting together a Cy Young type of season – he owns a 2.60 ERA and 26.3% strikeout rate in 2021.
- This Royals offense is struggling – they own a wRC+ of 85 over the last two weeks.
Best bets: A same-game parlay here seems obvious. If Plesac is ready to rock, this could get out of hand.
Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets
Pirates (+152), Mets (-180)
Total: 7.5 runs
JT Brubaker (R) vs. Taijuan Walker (R)
Three things to know
- JT Brubaker may be the best pitcher you’ve never heard of. He’s posted a 23.4% strikeout rate and a 5.1% walk rate this year.
- Coming back from a major arm injury, Taijuan Walker has struck out 25.9% of hitters in 85 innings this season.
- Francisco Lindor is finally waking up at the dish – since June, he’s posted a .180 ISO and 10.8% walk rate.
Best bets: I like the UNDER here. Both pitchers have been sneaky good and continue to improve.
Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs
Phillies (-102), Cubs (-116)
Total: 7.5 runs
Zach Eflin (R) vs. Adbert Alzolay (R)
Three things to know
- Quietly, Zach Eflin has had a great 2021 – his 3.66 FIP ranks him inside the top 30 of qualified starters.
- Adbert Alzolay heavily leans on a slider – he throws it 46.9% of the time over his 72.1 innings.
- The Cubs need to put the ball in play more – they have whiffed over 30% of the time in the last two weeks.
Best bets: The OVER. The wind be damned, these teams are slamming the ball in this series.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
Tigers (+108), Twins (-126)
Total: 9.5 runs
Tarik Skubal (L) vs. J.A. Happ (L)
Three things to know
- While the Tigers have struggled in total offensively, they’ve actually been far better as of late. Over the last two weeks, they have logged a 10.8% walk rate and a 115 wRC+.
- Tarik Skubal has quietly put together a very strong rookie campaign. Over 82.2 innings pitched, he’s recorded a 27.6% strikeout rate.
- The Twins are certainly going to test Skubal – they may be out of contention, but they rank seventh in the league in team wOBA.
Best bets: This is going to be an offensive show. I like both teams to score runs despite Skubal’s recent excellence. Play the OVER.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Reds (-108), Brewers (-108)
Total: 8.5 runs
Tyler Mahle (R) vs. Adrian Houser (R)
Three things to know
- As the Reds continue to get healthy, this offense is heating up at the dish. They have been one of the league’s best attacks and Jonathan India as table-setter has helped a lot.
- Adrian Houser has really struggled with his control and command. He’s logged a 9.8% walk rate this season.
- Houser’s 43.3% hard-hit rate would be the worst mark of his career.
Best bets: The OVER. Both pitchers have been decent, but the offenses are good.
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
Nationals (+124), Padres (-146)
Total: 7.0 runs
Max Scherzer (R) vs. Yu Darvish (R)
Three things to know
- The Nats have been heating up lately at the plate. Over the last two weeks, they rank fifth best in team wOBA and wRC+.
- In terms of strikeout rate, these arms are two of the league’s elite. Scherzer ranks fourth (35.5%) and Darvish ranks 12th (30.6%) in terms of qualified starters.
- Not only do they rank among the league’s best in terms of ERA, but also in with estimated indicators like FIP – Scherzer is 12th, and Darvish is 15th.
Best bets: This is going to be an awesome matchup if you like pitching. It will be interesting to see if they can hold these offenses in check – I’d target strikeout props here.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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