The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/6)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek.

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates

Braves (-194), Pirates (+162)
Total: 9.0 runs
Ian Anderson (R) vs. Chad Kuhl (R)

Three things to know

• The series opener was a bit of a surprise as the Braves were slammed by the Pirates 13-3.
• Chad Kuhl has been a big disappointment – which leads to the hefty underdog status for the Pirates. Kuhl owns nearly even strikeout (17.3%) and walk (13.9%) rates.
• Ian Anderson has shown year one was no fluke – he sports nearly an identical xFIP year-to-year (3.45 in 2020, 3.51 in 2021)

Best bets: Don’t expect a repeat of Monday. Kuhl has struggled mightily, and the Braves should get back on track. 

Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets

Brewers (+225), Mets (-275)
Total: 7.0 runs
Brett Anderson (L) vs. Jacob deGrom (R)

Three things to know

• DeGrom came out and shoved in his last start – after coming short of double-digit whiffs in eight of his last 10 starts, he hit that mark.
• Brett Anderson is on pace to deliver a career-low strikeout rate (14.5%)
• Keston Hiura is still whiffing a ton (28.3%) since his recall, but he’s been making significantly more contact with a lower chase rate.

Best bets: This screams same-game parlay to me – peep the deGrom numbers for the strikeout prop but the Mets should be popular plays.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins

Dodgers (-142), Marlins (+120)
Total: 8.0 runs
Tony Gonsolin (R) vs. Pablo López (R)

Three things to know

• Surprisingly, Gonsolin came out of the bullpen last week and earned the win in his last appearance.
• The Dodger right-hander has been outperforming his advanced metrics, as evidenced by a 2.81 ERA but 4.95 xFIP.
• Pablo López makes his first start since his beanball incident with the Braves.

Best bets: This game is a tricky one. Lopez is one of the league’s best arms and Mookie Betts still hasn’t gotten off the schneid with a .247 batting average. I like a Marlins moneyline bet here.

Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs

Phillies (-142), Cubs (+120)
Total: 9.5 runs
Aaron Nola (R) vs. Jake Arrieta (R)

Three things to know

• Aaron Nola had a peculiar outing – whiffing 12, he was tagged late in the start and garnered the loss.
• The Cubs continue to struggle as a team offensively – they have a wRC+ of only 92 with a 26.6% team strikeout rate.
• Jake Arrieta is at the twilight of his career, and it shows. The right-hander owns a 5.85 xERA.

Best bets: The wind is blowing out heftily, and that’s probably bad news for Arrieta. I’d look at the OVER and some home run props. 

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers

Tigers (+144), Rangers (-172)
Total: 9.0 runs
José Ureña (R) vs. Dane Dunning (R)

Three things to know

• José Ureña started off the season strong, but he has been bombed as of late. The righty has only a 14.1% strikeout rate on the year.
• Urena’s 40.0% hard-hit rate would be the second-worst mark of his career.
• Dane Dunning sports a very strong 24.0% strikeout rate this season and faces a Tigers team that whiffs plenty (26.9%).

Best bets: This feels like another same-game parlay. The Rangers have been clicking offensively and making for an interesting option, even if they struggled Monday in spots. 

Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals

Reds (-154), Royals (+130)
Total: 9.5 runs
Luis Castillo (R) vs. Kris Bubic (L)

Three things to know

• Maybe Luis Castillo really just like warm weather – the season-long metrics are ugly, but the right-hander really shined with a sub-3.00 ERA in June.
• While KC has revamped their offense, they still miss Adalberto Mondesi this season, as evidenced by their wRC+ mark of 89.
• The Royals rotation is in shambles, and while Kris Bubic has been good, he’s struggled in spots with a 5.66 xERA in 52.1 innings pitched.

Best bets: The OVER. It’s hot, humid, and it’s summer in the Midwest. Pairing with a Reds moneyline bet would be a good one, too.

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

Athletics (+134), Astros (-158)
Total: 8.5 runs
Chris Bassitt (R) vs. Framber Valdez (L)

Three things to know

• This will be the best game of the day, as Bassitt and Valdez have been outstanding so far in 2021.
• The Astros are still trying to chase down the A’s in the AL West, and will need a few wins here to close the gap.
• These two offenses are two of the best in the league – they are top-10 in terms of wRC+.

Best bets: The UNDER. Minute Maid is actually very pitcher friendly, and these are two excellent arms. 

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

White Sox (-116), Twins (-102)
Total: 8.5 runs
Carlos Rodón (L) vs. José Berríos (R)

Three things to know

• Is Carlos Rodón going to win the Cy Young? Over 83.2 innings, the southpaw owns a career-best 36.2% strikeout rate and 2.37 ERA.
• These are two excellent offenses, ranking in the top-10 in nearly every metric across the board.
• Over the last two weeks, the White Sox own a 127 wRC+ with a 10.3% walk rate.

Best bets: I will not go away from the White Sox right now, especially with Rodón on the mound. Take them in a F3/F5 bet.

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels

Red Sox (-116), Angels (-102)
Total: 9.0 runs
Nathan Eovaldi (R) vs. Shohei Ohtani (R)

Three things to know

• The Red Sox have been bashing the ball, but their pitching has turned things around, led by Eovaldi. He’s logged a 2.27 ERA since mid-May.
• Can Shohei slam another? Don’t get against him, especially with a righty on the mound.
• How good will this offense be when Mike Trout returns after the ASB? Over the last two weeks, the Angels are among the league’s elite with a 108 wRC+ mark.

Best bets: I expect some offensive fireworks tonight given the caliber of these offenses. Bet the OVER. 

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Rockies (+114), Diamondbacks (-134)
Total: 8.5 runs
Jon Gray (R) vs. Merrill Kelly (R)

Three things to know

• With Zac Gallen injured again, Merrill Kelly has stepped up big time – in the last month, he’s recorded a 3.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
• Over the last two weeks, these teams rank in the bottom three in terms of offense.
• Jon Gray has been good in the last two weeks as well, sporting a 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.

Best bets: The UNDER. Both pitchers are firing the ball well, and these offenses stink.

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants

Cardinals (+114), Giants (-134)
Total: 8.0 runs
Adam Wainwright (R) vs. Johnny Cueto (R)

Three things to know

• Are the Cardinals going to be sellers at the trade deadline? Facing a massive deficit in the division (9.5 games) certainly won’t help.
• Adam Wainwright has been the staff ace, despite it being his age-40 season. In 100.2 innings pitched, Wain-O owns a 3.67 xERA.
• The Giants whiff a lot in this split, but still clock in as a top-10 offense.

Best bets: I don’t trust the Cardinals at all – slam the Giants bets here, such as F3/F5, moneyline, etc. 

New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners

Yankees (-156), Mariners (+132)
Total: 9.5 runs
Jameson Taillon (R) vs. Justus Sheffield (L)

Three things to know

• Justus Sheffield has a nasty slider, but the guy gives out too many walks – a 9.6% walk rate won’t get it done.
• Over the last two weeks, the Yankees rank sixth with a wRC+ mark of 119.
• Jameson Taillon’s fly-ball heavy approach (32.4% ground-ball rate) is hurting him mightily, as evidenced by his 5.43 ERA.

Best bets: I think Taillon keeps the ball in spacious Seattle and the Yankees pound Sheffield. Take the moneyline here.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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