The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/29)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look. All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates betting breakdown

Brewers (-196), Pirates (+164)
Total: 8.0 runs
Freddy Peralta (R) vs. Chad Kuhl (R)

Three things to know

Will Freddy Peralta go longer than four innings? He is definitely getting his innings managed, which is a shame with his 35%+ strikeout rate.
Chad Kuhl has quietly been dealing recently – he has logged a 3.05 ERA and 24 whiffs in 20.2 innings in the last month.
Is Milwaukee turning the corner offensively? They rank sixth in team wOBA in the last seven days.

Best bets: I think this is a nailbiter with two solid arms on the mound. Take the UNDER.

Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown

Orioles (+132), Tigers (-156)
Total: 9.5 runs
Alexander Wells (L) vs. Casey Mize (R)

Three things to know

Baltimore has been smoking hot at the plate recently. They rank fourth in team wOBA over the last week.
Detroit hasn’t been too shabby either – they rank ninth in team wOBA over the same time frame and boast an impressive .211 ISO.
Is Casey Mize getting his innings managed? He’s failed to reach five innings in any of the last four starts.

Best bets: I am taking the OVER. These offenses are cooking lately.

Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown

Blue Jays (-102), Red Sox (-116)
Total: 10.0 runs
Hyun Jin Ryu (L) vs. Eduardo Rodríguez (L)

Three things to know

This series has not played out as expected. In the first three games, a combined 19 runs have been scored.
Two southpaws take the bump – can they tame these offenses, which rank in the top-4 in the league in wOBA?
Is Ryu ready to get the ship righted? He’s allowed 3+ earned runs in three of his last five starts.

Best bets: I am pivoting to the UNDER. The pitchers are far better in this matchup, and the offenses have gone silent as of late.

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres betting breakdown

Rockies (+235), Padres (-295)
Total: 8.0 runs
Kyle Freeland (L) vs. Joe Musgrove (R)

Three things to know

Colorado has surged recently at the dish – is this for real? They now sit 21st in team wOBA.
Not much higher, the Padres are 13th in team wOBA. Can their recent acquisitions kick start the offense?
Blake Snell was the ballyhooed acquisition, but Joe Musgrove has been far better. The former Pirate has shined with a 27.4% strikeout rate and 1.01 WHIP.

Best bets: A same-game parlay makes a lot of sense, especially with Musgrove on the bump.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)