NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look. All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates betting breakdown
Brewers (-196), Pirates (+164)
Total: 8.0 runs
Freddy Peralta (R) vs. Chad Kuhl (R)
Three things to know
- Will Freddy Peralta go longer than four innings? He is definitely getting his innings managed, which is a shame with his 35%+ strikeout rate.
- Chad Kuhl has quietly been dealing recently – he has logged a 3.05 ERA and 24 whiffs in 20.2 innings in the last month.
- Is Milwaukee turning the corner offensively? They rank sixth in team wOBA in the last seven days.
Best bets: I think this is a nailbiter with two solid arms on the mound. Take the UNDER.
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown
Orioles (+132), Tigers (-156)
Total: 9.5 runs
Alexander Wells (L) vs. Casey Mize (R)
Three things to know
- Baltimore has been smoking hot at the plate recently. They rank fourth in team wOBA over the last week.
- Detroit hasn’t been too shabby either – they rank ninth in team wOBA over the same time frame and boast an impressive .211 ISO.
- Is Casey Mize getting his innings managed? He’s failed to reach five innings in any of the last four starts.
Best bets: I am taking the OVER. These offenses are cooking lately.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown
Blue Jays (-102), Red Sox (-116)
Total: 10.0 runs
Hyun Jin Ryu (L) vs. Eduardo Rodríguez (L)
Three things to know
- This series has not played out as expected. In the first three games, a combined 19 runs have been scored.
- Two southpaws take the bump – can they tame these offenses, which rank in the top-4 in the league in wOBA?
- Is Ryu ready to get the ship righted? He’s allowed 3+ earned runs in three of his last five starts.
Best bets: I am pivoting to the UNDER. The pitchers are far better in this matchup, and the offenses have gone silent as of late.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres betting breakdown
Rockies (+235), Padres (-295)
Total: 8.0 runs
Kyle Freeland (L) vs. Joe Musgrove (R)
Three things to know
- Colorado has surged recently at the dish – is this for real? They now sit 21st in team wOBA.
- Not much higher, the Padres are 13th in team wOBA. Can their recent acquisitions kick start the offense?
- Blake Snell was the ballyhooed acquisition, but Joe Musgrove has been far better. The former Pirate has shined with a 27.4% strikeout rate and 1.01 WHIP.
Best bets: A same-game parlay makes a lot of sense, especially with Musgrove on the bump.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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