The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/26)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

Nationals (+102), Phillies (-120)
Total: 9.5 runs
Joe Ross (R) vs. Spencer Howard (R)

The Nationals, battling some injuries, were swept by the Orioles in a three-game set last week. They may now be sellers at the deadline.
Joe Ross was outstanding prior to an injury – can he recapture that past form? He recorded a 2.86 ERA and 0.98 over his last 44 innings.
These are two top-15 offenses in terms of wOBA – are these pitchers about to get slammed?

Best bets: I never like pitchers coming off IL, and Spencer Howard has struggled. Take the over.

Blue Jays (+128), Red Sox (-152)
Total: 11.0 runs
Tom Hatch (R) vs. Nick Pivetta (R)

For a non-Coors slate, this is one of the highest over/unders I have seen this year.
Tom Hatch makes his first major league start, and his career 4.80 SIERA shows there’s a lot to be desired.
On the flip side, the Jays are not fun to pitch too, and Pivetta has allowed 1.31 HR/9 this season.

Best bets: Runs runs runs. Fenway ranks fourth in park factor, the pitchers stink, and I love some homer props, too.

Reds (+112), Cubs (-132)
Total: 8.5 runs
Wade Miley (L) vs. Kyle Hendricks (R)

Quickly, who leads the league in wins? If you guessed Kyle Hendricks, you win the prize.
How does Wade Miley have a 3.23 FIP with a 19.8% strikeout rate? A 52.8% ground-ball rate surely does not hurt.
The Cubs were in the bottom five in team wOBA, but have risen to 21st in the last few weeks.

Best bets: Kyle Hendricks is 12-1 since May 1. I love the Cubs in a F3/F5/ML bet.

Tigers (+136), Twins (-162)
Total: 10.0 runs
Matt Manning (R) vs. Michael Pineda (R)

I love the Tigers here – Pineda has been slammed for a .500 slugging percentage against lefties in 2021.
Matt Manning has both a single-digit walk rate and strikeout rate. Yikes!
Detroit ranks 18th in team wOBA (.307) – that may not seem good, except for when you realize they were last after the first month of the year.

Best bets: RUNS! Man, this is a slate if you hate good pitching. These two arms are mediocre at best.

White Sox (-126), Royals (+108)
Total: 9.5 runs
Dallas Keuchel (L) vs. Mike Minor (L)

Eloy Jiménez is expected to be activated – the league’s rich keeps getting richer.
Dallas Keuchel, like Miley, doesn’t whiff many, but his ground-ball rate over 50% will continue to sustain him.
Kansas City remains as a bottom third offense (.302 wOBA). This offense has definitely disappointed in 2021.

Best bets: Finally, a same-game parlay here. With Eloy back, I love all things South Side.

Rockies (+124), Angels (-146)
Total: 7.5 runs
Germán Márquez (R) vs. Shohei Ohtani (R)

Oh baby – the marquee pitching matchup of the day. Kinda weird to type about the Rockies, no?
Can Germán Márquez and his 3.32 FIP keep ballin’? The dude has been outstanding, and his 0.68 HR/9 rate is among the league’s best.
Babe Ruth, I mean Shohei Ohtani, takes the mound. The walks are elevated (11.8%), but so is the whiff rate (31.1%).

Best bets: I like the UNDER. I know that it’s a boring bet, but these are two truly outstanding arms.

Astros (-180), Mariners (+152)
Total: 8.5 runs
Luis García (R) vs. Darren McCaughan (R)

Do the Mariners need a vision check? They are whiffing at an absurd rate to righties (25.9%).
Luis García is by far and away the best pitching option monday – he owns a 28.5% strikeout rate to boot.
It doesn’t seem fair that rookie Darren McCaughan has to face the league’s best offense – they lead the league in wRC+ (117).

Best bets: Another same game parlay on the Astros, and consider a strikeout prop for Garcia if its anything at 6.5 or under.