Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
MLB Dream
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies betting breakdown
Nationals (+102), Phillies (-120)
Total: 9.5 runs
Joe Ross (R) vs. Spencer Howard (R)
Three things to know
- The Nationals, battling some injuries, were swept by the Orioles in a three-game set last week. They may now be sellers at the deadline.
- Joe Ross was outstanding prior to an injury – can he recapture that past form? He recorded a 2.86 ERA and 0.98 over his last 44 innings.
- These are two top-15 offenses in terms of wOBA – are these pitchers about to get slammed?
Best bets: I never like pitchers coming off IL, and Spencer Howard has struggled. Take the over.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox betting breakdown
Blue Jays (+128), Red Sox (-152)
Total: 11.0 runs
Tom Hatch (R) vs. Nick Pivetta (R)
Three things to know
- For a non-Coors slate, this is one of the highest over/unders I have seen this year.
- Tom Hatch makes his first major league start, and his career 4.80 SIERA shows there’s a lot to be desired.
- On the flip side, the Jays are not fun to pitch too, and Pivetta has allowed 1.31 HR/9 this season.
Best bets: Runs runs runs. Fenway ranks fourth in park factor, the pitchers stink, and I love some homer props, too.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs betting breakdown
Reds (+112), Cubs (-132)
Total: 8.5 runs
Wade Miley (L) vs. Kyle Hendricks (R)
Three things to know
- Quickly, who leads the league in wins? If you guessed Kyle Hendricks, you win the prize.
- How does Wade Miley have a 3.23 FIP with a 19.8% strikeout rate? A 52.8% ground-ball rate surely does not hurt.
- The Cubs were in the bottom five in team wOBA, but have risen to 21st in the last few weeks.
Best bets: Kyle Hendricks is 12-1 since May 1. I love the Cubs in a F3/F5/ML bet.
Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins betting breakdown
Tigers (+136), Twins (-162)
Total: 10.0 runs
Matt Manning (R) vs. Michael Pineda (R)
Three things to know
- I love the Tigers here – Pineda has been slammed for a .500 slugging percentage against lefties in 2021.
- Matt Manning has both a single-digit walk rate and strikeout rate. Yikes!
- Detroit ranks 18th in team wOBA (.307) – that may not seem good, except for when you realize they were last after the first month of the year.
Best bets: RUNS! Man, this is a slate if you hate good pitching. These two arms are mediocre at best.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown
White Sox (-126), Royals (+108)
Total: 9.5 runs
Dallas Keuchel (L) vs. Mike Minor (L)
Three things to know
- Eloy Jiménez is expected to be activated – the league’s rich keeps getting richer.
- Dallas Keuchel, like Miley, doesn’t whiff many, but his ground-ball rate over 50% will continue to sustain him.
- Kansas City remains as a bottom third offense (.302 wOBA). This offense has definitely disappointed in 2021.
Best bets: Finally, a same-game parlay here. With Eloy back, I love all things South Side.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown
Rockies (+124), Angels (-146)
Total: 7.5 runs
Germán Márquez (R) vs. Shohei Ohtani (R)
Three things to know
- Oh baby – the marquee pitching matchup of the day. Kinda weird to type about the Rockies, no?
- Can Germán Márquez and his 3.32 FIP keep ballin’? The dude has been outstanding, and his 0.68 HR/9 rate is among the league’s best.
- Babe Ruth, I mean Shohei Ohtani, takes the mound. The walks are elevated (11.8%), but so is the whiff rate (31.1%).
Best bets: I like the UNDER. I know that it’s a boring bet, but these are two truly outstanding arms.
Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown
Astros (-180), Mariners (+152)
Total: 8.5 runs
Luis García (R) vs. Darren McCaughan (R)
Three things to know
- Do the Mariners need a vision check? They are whiffing at an absurd rate to righties (25.9%).
- Luis García is by far and away the best pitching option monday – he owns a 28.5% strikeout rate to boot.
- It doesn’t seem fair that rookie Darren McCaughan has to face the league’s best offense – they lead the league in wRC+ (117).
Best bets: Another same game parlay on the Astros, and consider a strikeout prop for Garcia if its anything at 6.5 or under.
(Get all my MLB betting picks here)
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