Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2021 NBA Draft is set to take place July 29 at Barclays Center, and sportsbooks have wasted no time opening up markets for betting props to wager on. With the Detroit Pistons already hinting of taking Cade Cunningham with the first overall pick, let’s get creative and dive into a wealth of props at BetMGM.
The litany of betting props being offered at the sportsbooks aren’t just limited to which player will be taken first overall but it includes “exact draft order,” O/U for draft slot of a respective player along with “who will get picked first” props with certain players matched up with one another.
I already previewed my best bets for NBA Draft odds back on July 7, and we’ve already seen odds movement from my analysis. Jalen Green was +125 to be selected second overall, and he’s since moved to -200 to be taken by the Houston Rockets. I also have Corey Kispert to be selected in the lottery and be taken within the top 14 selections with his O/U line moving to 13.5.
With some prop odds seeing a shift as draft intel comes out and more teams conducting one-on-one workouts, now is the time to lock in your NBA Draft prop bets before they become unbettable.
Below, I’m going to provide two more expert picks for the 2021 NBA Draft and offer some more plus money bets that are sure to get you paid. All odds below are available at the BetMGM Sportsbook:
NBA Draft Props & Best Bets
Top 4 – Exact Order: Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Suggs at +150
The fact that we’re getting plus money for this almost reads like a misprint, but I’ll be happy to oblige BetMGM for this prop. Based on nearly all reports, Cade Cunningham is set to go first to the Detroit Pistons, unanimously projected as the top-ranked prospect in the NBA Draft.
Where this bet gets tricky is the intentions of the Houston Rockets, who really can’t go wrong with either Jalen Green or Evan Mobley. They need an electric offensive talent like Green, who averaged nearly 20 points per game in the G-League against NBA prospects and former players while showing the shot-making package that makes him so coveted by teams. On the flip side, Mobley from USC fits the mold of the exact big man NBA teams want in today’s game because of his ability to protect the rim while still providing an outside shot to space the floor. That said, this isn’t the old NBA where size matters and Green should be taken second overall and is a -200 fave (67.6% implied probability) to be picked in that spot.
At that point if Cunningham and Green are off the board, the Cavaliers would be insane to pass on Mobley, who was even considered as high with the first pick during the draft evaluation process. Mobley can fit in alongside center Jarrett Allen for a twin towers effect, and with Allen already averaging 1.4 blocks per game last season with the Cavs, Mobley could come in a play weakside help all game and disrupt offenses. It also helps that Cleveland is very guard oriented to eliminate the possibility of taking Jalen Suggs or Scottie Barnes in this spot. Mobley will go to the Cavs if (and when) Green is selected by the Rockets.
That leaves the Toronto Raptors to seal our fate and Jalen Suggs would fit like a glove in Toronto. Suggs was able to fit in smoothly in a Gonzaga offense as a do-it-all playmaker that could score when needed, hit the outside shot (yikes, UCLA) and play solid perimeter defense. His football background and growing up in Minnesota would make Suggs likely have a smooth transition to the Raptors and pair alongside Fred VanVleet for a dynamic shooting backcourt. He’s basically the second coming of Kyle Lowry, who will go down as the greatest Toronto Raptor ever.
Unless Masai Ujiri knows something about Scottie Barnes’ jump shot that we don’t or knows the true upside of Jonathan Kuminga, Suggs has to be the pick at fourth for the Raptors. Lock it in.
Luka Garza Draft Position UNDER 55.5 at +110
It’s not often that we’re debating whether the Naismith College Player of the Year is worth taking in the NBA Draft, but Iowa Hawkeyes’ Luka Garza has put us in an awkward place when betting on NBA Draft props. I think he’ll get taken in the second round of the NBA Draft and much earlier than the 55th pick even if I think he’s likely not going to be an effective player in the league.
The senior center has had to overcome a lot of stigma his last two seasons manning the middle in Iowa, and all he’s done is put up numbers. In 2019, he averaged 23.9 points per game while shooting 54.8% from the floor and even showed his range by hitting 35.8% from behind the arc. He finished second in Naismith Trophy voting to Obi Toppin and could’ve been argued to finish first with how he positioned the Hawkeyes in the Big 10 standings.
It was the 2020 season where Garza started to show why he could be drafted into the NBA and that was his ability to hit an outside shot and stretch opposing defenses. The national player of the year averaged 3.5 three-point shot attempts in 31 games this past season and hit 44% of them. That’s elite shooting for a seven-footer.
During the 2021 NBA Draft process, teams reported Garza looked noticeably slimmer and was moving laterally with ease. His playing weight and ability to rotate defensively was his biggest flaw in college and if he can curb those issues where he’s not a liability, a team will draft him in the second round and perhaps as high as the 40-45 pick range.
To get plus money for the National Player of the Year to be taken within the first 55 picks is a steal. If you go back and look at every Naismith Award winner since 1969 (when the award was created), no player was undrafted, let alone not selected within the top 55 picks. In fact, only two weren’t selected in the first round in Frank Mason III (34th overall in 2016) and Jalen Brunson (33rd overall in 2017). Both went much earlier than the 55th pick. Lock this in ASAP!
