The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/19)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek.

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Red Sox (+114), Blue Jays (-134)
Total: 10.5 runs
Nick Pivetta (R) vs. Ross Stripling (R)

Three things to know

Will this be a marquee matchup offenses again? Probably. As the Jays wrap things up in Sahlen Field, it ranks fourth in park factor and eighth in home run factor this year.
Ross Stripling has been better as a Blue Jay, notching a 24.8% strikeout rate, but he still has a home run issue (1.93 HR/9).
In terms of wOBA, these are two top-seven offenses in the league.

Best bets: Runs, runs, runs for the OVER. I don’t trust either pitcher here, especially in a hitter-friendly environment.

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown

Mets (+100), Reds (-118)
Total: 11.0 runs
Jerad Eickhoff (R) vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (R)

Three things to know

Out of pure necessity, Jerad Eickhoff is starting for the Mets. And, he has been terrible (4.26 HR/9, 10.3% K Rate).
Can this Reds offense get back on track? Still solid, they find themselves outside of the top five, now ninth in wOBA (.323).
Vladimir Gutierrez has been flirting with danger lately – he’s logged a 10.6% walk rate this year.

Best bets: This one is a toss-up for me, but I am leaning toward a F3/F5 bet for the Reds. I like the over but the Mets offense without Francisco Lindor is pretty average.

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown

Rangers (-108), Tigers (-108)
Total: 8.5 runs
Kyle Gibson (R) vs. Casey Mize (R)

Three things to know

If Kyle Gibson didn’t play for the Rangers, I think he’d be in the Cy Young mix, posting a 2.29 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this year.
Casey Mize hasn’t been too shabby either – he’s logged a 3.59 ERA and 77 whiffs in 95.1 innings.
These offenses are in the bottom third of the league with a .304 wOBA (Detroit) and .299 wOBA (Texas, respectively).

Best bets: The UNDER. Both hurlers have been underrated this season.

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

Orioles (+235), Rays (-290)
Total: 8.5 runs
Spenser Watkins (R) vs. Ryan Yarbrough (L)

Three things to know

Spenser Watkins is an average prospect at best. He’s recorded under a K per inning in his last six professional stops.
Ryan Yarbrough won’t win the strikeout title (19.7% rate), but his 38.2% ground-ball rate supports his solid 4.30 FIP.
These teams both whiff a lot, with the Orioles at 24.0% and the Rays at 26.6%.

Best bets: A same-game parlay sticks out here. Ryan Yarbrough has been good, and the Orioles are a bad club.

Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Indians (+184), Astros (-220)
Total: 8.5 runs
J.C. Mejía (R) vs. Zach Greinke (R)

Three things to know

The Astros have given up their title of leading the league in wOBA, but ranking second (.335) ain’t so bad.
The Indians are free-falling on offense – they now rank 23rd in team wOBA and are falling without Eddie Rosario.
Houston leads the league in toughest to strikeout by a wide margin at 19.4% — fade any strikeout bets here.

Best bets: Two same-game parlays here. Greinke is definitely slowing down, but J.C. Mejía stinks.

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Cubs (-110), Cardinals (-106)
Total: 9.0 runs
Alec Mills (R) vs. Jake Woodford (R)

Three things to know

Out of pure desperation, the Cardinals are starting Jake Woodford. He has logged a 6.57 FIP, primarily as a reliever, allowing 1.78 HR/9.
The Cardinals offense is pathetic – they rank third worst in the league in team wOBA.
The Cubs have been creeping up lately – they are up to 18th in wOBA (.306).

Best bets: I hate to be a broken record, but slam the Cubs. The Cardinals offense is awful, and Woodford has not been good.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Pirates (-102), Diamondbacks (-116)
Total: 9.5 runs
Chase De Jong (R) vs. Caleb Smith (L)

Three things to know

This is by far the ugliest game of the day, as these are two of the worst teams in baseball with a combined record 63-125.
Caleb Smith is playing with fire – he owns a 25.7% strikeout rate, but that’s offset by an 11.7% walk rate.
These offenses are both terrible, clocking in with an identical .298 team wOBA.

Best bets: Solely because Caleb Smith is better than Chase De Jong, I am siding with the Diamondbacks, but this is a stay-away for me.

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics betting breakdown

Angels (-106), Athletics (-110)
Total: 8.0 runs
Shohei Ohtani (R) vs. Cole Irvin (L)

Three things to know

I love Shohei Ohtani day – whether it’s blasting home runs or dominating on the mound, this is must-see TV.
Cole Irvin is going to do everything he can to stay relevant here – he’s recorded a 2.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in the last month.
What makes this matchup juicy is the offense – both rank in the upper half in terms of wOBA and wRC+.

Best bets: The books are confused, and I like the UNDER here. Remember, this is in Oakland, which is very pitcher friendly.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers breakdown

Giants (+112), Dodgers (-132)
Total: 8.0 runs
Kevin Gausman (R) vs. Tony Gonsolin (R)

Three things to know

If you have Kevin Gausman in fantasy this year, boy are you thrilled with his sub-2.00 ERA this season.
Tony Gonsolin (2.13 ERA) is outperforming his advanced metrics (3.53 FIP), but his 28.7% strikeout rate is tantalizing.
These are also two excellent offenses – the Dodgers rank fourth and the Giants rank sixth in team wOBA.

Best bets: I like Kevin Gausman a lot, but coming back from a family medical emergency and a surging Dodgers offense, I’m taking a F3/F5 Dodgers bet here.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)