The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (7/19)


Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek.

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Red Sox (+114), Blue Jays (-134)
Total: 10.5 runs
Nick Pivetta (R) vs. Ross Stripling (R)

Three things to know

  • Will this be a marquee matchup offenses again? Probably. As the Jays wrap things up in Sahlen Field, it ranks fourth in park factor and eighth in home run factor this year.
  • Ross Stripling has been better as a Blue Jay, notching a 24.8% strikeout rate, but he still has a home run issue (1.93 HR/9).
  • In terms of wOBA, these are two top-seven offenses in the league.

Best bets: Runs, runs, runs for the OVER. I don’t trust either pitcher here, especially in a hitter-friendly environment. 

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown

Mets (+100), Reds (-118)
Total: 11.0 runs
Jerad Eickhoff (R) vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (R)

Three things to know

  • Out of pure necessity, Jerad Eickhoff is starting for the Mets. And, he has been terrible (4.26 HR/9, 10.3% K Rate).
  • Can this Reds offense get back on track? Still solid, they find themselves outside of the top five, now ninth in wOBA (.323).
  • Vladimir Gutierrez has been flirting with danger lately – he’s logged a 10.6% walk rate this year.

Best bets: This one is a toss-up for me, but I am leaning toward a F3/F5 bet for the Reds. I like the over but the Mets offense without Francisco Lindor is pretty average.

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown

Rangers (-108), Tigers (-108)
Total: 8.5 runs
Kyle Gibson (R) vs. Casey Mize (R)

Three things to know

  • If Kyle Gibson didn’t play for the Rangers, I think he’d be in the Cy Young mix, posting a 2.29 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this year.
  • Casey Mize hasn’t been too shabby either – he’s logged a 3.59 ERA and 77 whiffs in 95.1 innings.
  • These offenses are in the bottom third of the league with a .304 wOBA (Detroit) and .299 wOBA (Texas, respectively).

Best bets: The UNDER. Both hurlers have been underrated this season. 

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays betting breakdown

Orioles (+235), Rays (-290)
Total: 8.5 runs
Spenser Watkins (R) vs. Ryan Yarbrough (L)

Three things to know

  • Spenser Watkins is an average prospect at best. He’s recorded under a K per inning in his last six professional stops.
  • Ryan Yarbrough won’t win the strikeout title (19.7% rate), but his 38.2% ground-ball rate supports his solid 4.30 FIP.
  • These teams both whiff a lot, with the Orioles at 24.0% and the Rays at 26.6%.

Best bets: A same-game parlay sticks out here. Ryan Yarbrough has been good, and the Orioles are a bad club.

Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Indians (+184), Astros (-220)
Total: 8.5 runs
J.C. Mejía (R) vs. Zach Greinke (R)

Three things to know

  • The Astros have given up their title of leading the league in wOBA, but ranking second (.335) ain’t so bad.
  • The Indians are free-falling on offense – they now rank 23rd in team wOBA and are falling without Eddie Rosario.
  • Houston leads the league in toughest to strikeout by a wide margin at 19.4% — fade any strikeout bets here.

Best bets: Two same-game parlays here. Greinke is definitely slowing down, but J.C. Mejía stinks. 

Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Cubs (-110), Cardinals (-106)
Total: 9.0 runs
Alec Mills (R) vs. Jake Woodford (R)

Three things to know

  • Out of pure desperation, the Cardinals are starting Jake Woodford. He has logged a 6.57 FIP, primarily as a reliever, allowing 1.78 HR/9.
  • The Cardinals offense is pathetic – they rank third worst in the league in team wOBA.
  • The Cubs have been creeping up lately – they are up to 18th in wOBA (.306).

Best bets: I hate to be a broken record, but slam the Cubs. The Cardinals offense is awful, and Woodford has not been good.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Pirates (-102), Diamondbacks (-116)
Total: 9.5 runs
Chase De Jong (R) vs. Caleb Smith (L)

Three things to know

  • This is by far the ugliest game of the day, as these are two of the worst teams in baseball with a combined record 63-125.
  • Caleb Smith is playing with fire – he owns a 25.7% strikeout rate, but that’s offset by an 11.7% walk rate.
  • These offenses are both terrible, clocking in with an identical .298 team wOBA.

Best bets: Solely because Caleb Smith is better than Chase De Jong, I am siding with the Diamondbacks, but this is a stay-away for me. 

Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics betting breakdown

Angels (-106), Athletics (-110)
Total: 8.0 runs
Shohei Ohtani (R) vs. Cole Irvin (L)

Three things to know

  • I love Shohei Ohtani day – whether it’s blasting home runs or dominating on the mound, this is must-see TV.
  • Cole Irvin is going to do everything he can to stay relevant here – he’s recorded a 2.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in the last month.
  • What makes this matchup juicy is the offense – both rank in the upper half in terms of wOBA and wRC+.

Best bets: The books are confused, and I like the UNDER here. Remember, this is in Oakland, which is very pitcher friendly. 

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers breakdown

Giants (+112), Dodgers (-132)
Total: 8.0 runs
Kevin Gausman (R) vs. Tony Gonsolin (R)

Three things to know

  • If you have Kevin Gausman in fantasy this year, boy are you thrilled with his sub-2.00 ERA this season.
  • Tony Gonsolin (2.13 ERA) is outperforming his advanced metrics (3.53 FIP), but his 28.7% strikeout rate is tantalizing.
  • These are also two excellent offenses – the Dodgers rank fourth and the Giants rank sixth in team wOBA.

Best bets: I like Kevin Gausman a lot, but coming back from a family medical emergency and a surging Dodgers offense, I’m taking a F3/F5 Dodgers bet here.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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