The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (6/25)


Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek.

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

Orioles (+200), Blue Jays (-245)
Total: 10.5 runs
Matt Harvey (R) vs. Alek Manoah (L)

This game should be an utter bloodbath. The best lineup in baseball got arguably better, somehow, with the addition of George Springer into it. They absolutely pounded the Orioles Thursday, racing out to a six-spot thanks to a Lourdes Gurriel grand slam. When your seven-hole hitter provides that much pop, that’s crazy. And Matt Harvey isn’t the same pitcher of old.

Best bets: All of the Jays bets — and some home run props are interesting, too.

Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays

Angels (+136), Rays (-162)
Total: 8.5 runs
Griffin Canning (R) vs. Andrew Kittredge (R)

The question with Griffin Canning, throughout his career, has never been about the stuff — the elevated strikeout rate (24.4%) shows he’s more than adept at whiffing batters. It’s also the control and command — his whopping 10.1% walk rate paired with a low ground-ball rate (33.8%) show he needs to pound the strike zone more.

Best bets: With Canning’s struggles, I actually love a F3/F5 Rays bet here.

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

Nationals (+132), Marlins (-156)
Total: 7.5 runs
Jon Lester (L) vs. Pablo López (R)

After being left for dead, the Nationals asked everyone to hold their beer. Winners of their last 10 games, they are now back into the thick of the playoff race, but they will have their hands full Friday — Pablo López has been absolutely brilliant this season. He’s a big example of why win total are a stupid metric — he’s among the league’s elite with a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP despite only 3 wins.

Best bets: It’s hard betting against a team this hot, but I am siding with the Marlins here.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Yankees (-124), Red Sox (+106)
Total: 10.0 runs
Domingo Germán (R) vs. Martín Pérez (L)

Well, if you are going to view this game, you need to get your favorite beverage, a snack and perhaps a diaper — you’re in for a very long contest. These two teams play some lengthy contests, and these pitchers won’t help — after strong runs of form for both of them, German and Perez have gotten pounded as of late.

Best bets: The OVER — these hurlers have been struggling and these offenses are gonna put up some crooked numbers.

Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers

Astros (-270), Tigers (+220)
Total: 9.5 runs
Framber Valdez (L) vs. Wily Peralta (R)

As if the Astros weren’t already a good team, they are now getting some excellent pitching, and that’s a real problem for AL West foes. The Astros lead the league in terms of wOBA (up to a .350 mark this season), and the Tigers are near the bottom of the league (.300). Fold in washed-up arm Wily Peralta and the porous Tigers ‘pen, and this is an Astros smash spot.

Best bets: Winners of 11 straight, and absolutely obliterating the baseball, the ‘Stros are screaming same-game parlay.

Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds

Braves (+102), Reds (-120)
Total: 10.5 runs
Drew Smyly (L) vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (R)

Homer-friendly Cincinnati is the scene of the crime for baseballs Friday, and this one should see some fireworks. Drew Smyly has not been what the Braves signed the veteran arm for, logging a 5.11 ERA in 61.2 innings. I know that he flirted with a no-hitter in his last start, but let’s be real — it was for 5.2 innings. He’s still giving up far too much hard contact.

Best bets: The OVER. While Gutierrez has been good, Smyly has not.

Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers

Royals (+100), Rangers (-118)
Total: 8.0 runs
Mike Minor (L) vs. Dane Dunning (R)

As many offensive fireworks that we have spoken about in Friday’s contest, this may not be one of them. The Royals and Rangers both rank in the bottom 12 of the league in terms of wOBA and wRC+, which could be good for the two starting pitchers. While the Royals aren’t strikeout happy (22.0%), they can still be pitched too, especially in pitcher-friendly Globe Life Park.

Best bets: The UNDER. This is not going to be an offensive showdown, and these pitchers make for sneaky DFS plays.

Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins

Indians (+116), Twins (-136)
Total: 10.0 runs
Cal Quantrill (R) vs. Danny Coulombe (R)

This game is a hard one to peg. The two offensive attacks rank toward the bottom of the league in the last two weeks, clocking in 19th (Minnesota) and 22nd (Cleveland), respectively. But there are two inexperienced arms manning the bump, especially with Danny Coulombe. The right-hander is likely to be an opener (he has never started a game in his professional career), so expect myriad pitching changes.

Best bets: I am likely staying mostly away from this due to the unknowns here, but certainly Vegas predicts some runs — so maybe check out a prop for homers.

Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

Mariners (+176), White Sox (-210)
Total: 7.5 runs
Yusei Kikuchi (L) vs. Carlos Rodón (L)

This one is pretty simple — I think that if Sandy Koufax himself were on the mound, the White Sox would pound him. They’ve won their last (wait for it) 24 games against a lefty. Yusei Kikuchi shouldn’t be discounted in his own right — he’s been spectacular this season — but the White Sox simply drill left-handed pitching, leading the league in nearly all team categories.

Best bets: I am taking the White Sox here — despite the solid work by Kikuchi this year, the White Sox are tough to bet against with lefties.

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

Pirates (+144), Cardinals (-172)
Total: 8.5 runs
Wil Crowe (R) vs. Kwang Hyun Kim (L)

The Cardinals are horrible. With Jack Flaherty missing quite a bit of time, they have tried to find any arms to help, but they are simply swinging and missing. Friday, Kim takes the mound, and he’s been pretty mediocre — but when a No. 4 or 5 is masquerading as a No. 2, that’s generally not great for your rotation. The Pirates pounded Carlos Martínez Thursday night, and I’d expect more to come — just keep an eye on potentially wet weather washing this one out.

Best bets: Fade the Cardinals and grab the Pirates in a moneyline bet.

Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants

Athletics (-116), Giants (-102)
Total: 7.5 runs
Sean Manaea (L) vs. Johnny Cueto (R)

Quick — name the best left-hander in the game over the last month? If you said Sean Manaea, you nailed it. The left-hander from Indiana State has been absolutely nails, recording a 1.65 ERA, 9.07 K/9 and 44 strikeouts over 43.2 innings pitched. And while folks may still be skeptical of the Giants, he will certainly face one of his stiffest tests over the last month — the Giants are third in the league with a 129 wRC+. 

Best bets: Vegas pegs this game as a toss-up, and they’ve given lefties a lot of trouble. I do give a slight lean to the A’s, but this should be a fun one.

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers

Cubs (+160), Dodgers (-190)
Total: 9.5 runs
Jake Arrieta (R) vs. Tony Gonsolin (R)

As good as the Dodgers offense has been, I certainly didn’t expect Chicago to work on a combined no-hitter of this team — and did you know that the last two no-hitters thrown at Dodgers Stadium have been by Cubs? This Dodgers team is still finding its gear, but I do expect them to snap a four-game skid tonight, especially with struggling hurler Jake Arrieta on the mound.

Best bets: Lots of Dodger love — F3/F5, moneyline, and even a team total over.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

Diamondbacks (+160), Padres (-190)
Total: 8.5 runs
Corbin Martin (R) vs. Chris Paddack (R)

One of the more interesting developments that analysts have been begging for is that The Sherriff, Chris Paddack, develops a third pitch like a curveball — and he has. Primarily a two-pitch fastball and changeup pitch mix, he’s heavily relied on a curve recently, and to great results. Over his last two starts, he’s whiffed 20 hitters in 11 innings, logging a 3.27 ERA.

Best bets: The Diamondbacks are in a funk, and I expect their lengthy road losing streak to continue here.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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