Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece!
Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals
Pirates (+102), Nationals (-120)
Total: 8.5 runs
JT Brubaker (R) vs. Jon Lester (L)
I’m not sure there were many scenarios where we saw the home Nationals face the Pirates with an unproven hurler basically as a push on the moneyline, but here we are. JT Brubaker has actually put together a quietly solid season despite getting smacked around by the juggernaut Dodgers last time out, but his 4.25 FIP indicates a pretty solid season. A 24.2% strikeout rate and only a 5.0% walk rate show considerable growth over the season.
Best bets: Lester has one of the lowest qualified strikeout rates among all starters, and with Ke'Bryan Hayes back this could make the Pirates an interesting moneyline or F5 bet.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Blue Jays (+112), Red Sox (-132)
Total: 9.0 runs
Alek Manoah (R) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (R)
This number is almost too hard to believe, but peep this — the Red Sox staff, as bad it has been, has been absolutely pummeled lately. Over the last week, they have allowed a whopping 21 home runs to be hit. That’s right — roughly an average of three long balls per game. The one outlier to this whopping total is Eovaldi, who’s allowed only 0.37 home runs per nine (HR/9) in 2021. Can he hold the absurd Blue Jays offense down?
Best bets: Despite being the lone bright spot on the staff recently, I still think the Blue Jays are too good to hold down offensively. Take them in a F5 or moneyline bet.
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets
Cubs (+106), Mets (-126)
Total: 8.5 runs
Jake Arrieta (R) vs. David Peterson (L)
This game feels like it could be a blood bath offensively — Jake Arrieta has stayed within the Cub rotation, and he may still with the recent blister injury to young arm Adbert Alzolay. His 5.31 FIP belies his struggles, and his nearly double-digit walk rate showcases his struggles. David Peterson has gotten absolutely smashed lately — he, too, has a double-digit walk rate (10.9%), and his 1.72 HR/9 show there’s been plenty of hard contact.
Best bets: The over, and big time. These pitchers are not good, and as the Mets have gotten healthier, they are starting to grind pitchers down.
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Tigers (+122), Royals (-144)
Total: 9.5 runs
Matthew Boyd (L) vs. Brad Keller (R)
Matthew Boyd continues to confound fantasy players, bettors, and DFS minds alike — normally logging a very high strikeout rate, Boyd has been an enigma with only a mark of 18.8% whiffs this season. Where he has excelled, however, is a 30.8% hard-hit rate — batters are simply having a hard time squaring him up. On the flip side, Brad Keller has been absolutely dreadful this season — and his control and command are his undoing. His 10.1% walk rate consistently puts him in trouble, and a 35.3% hard-hit rate certainly isn’t helping matters, either.
Best bets: This is where we slam together a Tigers bet — unfortunately, a same-game parlay over at FanDuel doesn’t make a ton of sense with Boyd strikeouts, as he isn’t whiffing anyone. But, an F5 Tigers or moneyline bet is juicy.
Tampa Bay Royals at Chicago White Sox
Rays (-116), White Sox (-102)
Total: 7.5 runs
Tyler Glasnow (R) vs. Lance Lynn (R)
Two offenses with an ability to get white-hot instantly are due to face off tonight, and they have been really outstanding against right-handed pitching this year. They rank inside the top-10 of baseball against righties in nearly all statistical categories. But, these are two of the league’s best arms statistically. In terms of FIP, these are the 11th and 12th-ranked pitchers in baseball, and both have been absolute monsters on the bump in 2021.
Best bets: The under. While a number of 7.5 runs can get a bit dicey, these are two of the premier arms in the game.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Reds (+120), Brewers (-142)
Total: 9.0 runs
Vladimir Gutierrez (R) vs. Eric Lauer (L)
Has anyone taken notice of how good Vladimir Gutierrez has been? Gutierrez has logged a 3.98 FIP this year, and while the Reds are oozing pitching talent in the minors, he’s trying to earn his keep. While he’s long struggled with his control and command, he’s also flashed 30%-plus strikeout upside as well. The Brewers still rank as a bottom-five offense in the league.
Best bets: Honestly, I don’t know why the Brewers are favored here. While they have improved recently at the dish, they still aren’t a good team, and Gutierrez is a solid arm. Bet the Reds.
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals
Marlins (+164), Cardinals (-196)
Total: 8.5 runs
Braxton Garrett (L) vs. Adam Wainwright (R)
I am not the biggest home-road split guy, but after this many innings with Adam Wainwright, it starts to take shape with statistical significance. Wainwright has fired 1,200 innings at Busch Stadium for his career, and he owns a magnificent 2.85 ERA in his home digs. Now, not only has Busch Stadium played like a pitcher-friendly park, but couple this with Waino’s excellence and this is an appealing option.
Best bets: This feels like a solid same-game parlay opportunity between the under and a Cardinals moneyline bet.
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Padres (-148), Rockies (+126)
Total: 11.5 runs
Dinelson Lamet (R) vs. Austin Gomber (L)
The prize of the Rockies trade with the Cardinals and Nolan Arenado, Austin Gomber got off to an auspicious start after getting in his first turn. However, after 68.1 innings pitched, his 3.75 FIP shows he’s been pretty darn good this season. Gomber’s logged a 25.2% strikeout rate and the Padres, the Rockies opponent, have struggled against southpaws this season — they are fifth-worst with a .290 wOBA.
Best bets: Even Lamet has been solid (although he feels like a ticking time bomb waiting to happen). I can’t believe what I am writing here, but take the UNDER.
Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics
Angels (+124), Athletics (-146)
Total: 8.0 runs
Dylan Bundy (R) vs. Sean Manaea (L)
After getting tagged pretty hard by the Boston Red Sox, Sean Manaea, a popular breakout candidate for the 2021 season, looked to be a bit of a bust early on this year. But recently? The dude has been flat ballin’. Over his last five starts, spanning 32.2 innings pitched, the southpaw has recorded a 1.38 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. Manaea will have his hands full — the Angels are 10th best against lefties this year with only a 22.0% strikeout rate.
Best bets: Winners of eight of their last nine without Mike Trout, this offense has exploded — they’ve scored 66 runs over this hot stretch. Bundy has been bad — take the over here.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Diamondbacks (+144), Giants (-172)
Total: 8.0 runs
Matt Peacock (R) vs. Alex Wood (L)
It’s been a bit of a leap for Matt Peacock for the Diamondbacks — forced into duty thanks to a set of injuries in the D-Backs rotation, he’s struggled, as one might expect, this year. He’s recorded a 5.24 ERA and 4.90 FIP this season in 34.1 innings pitched, and he’s basically whiffing no one — a 16.4% strikeout rate isn’t anything to shake a stick at. Arizona, with a myriad of injuries to their everyday lineup, has been quietly solid against southpaws, logging a 102 wRC+.
Best bets: Wood has come back to earth a bit recently — due to that, I like the over here.
Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Phillies (+144), Dodgers (-172)
Total: 9.5 runs
Spencer Howard (R) vs. Tony Gonsolin (R)
Spencer Howard has been a lot of things he has been advertised to be — a lot of whiffs (29.7% strikeout rate), a lot of swings and misses (12.2% swinging-strike rate), but way too many walks (17.3%). That’s been his undoing, if there has been one — and messing around like that against the Dodgers could get him into some serious trouble.
Best bets: This is a same game parlay if there’s ever been one — smash the Dodgers combo here.
Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Twins (-138), Mariners (+118)
Total: 8.0 runs
Kenta Maeda (R) vs. Marco Gonzales (L)
The start of 2021, prior to him heading to the injured list, was a rough start for Kenta Maeda — an ERA north of 5.00 runs and 1.90 HR/9 led to some ugly outings for fantasy players. Now, the good news is that Maeda was absolutely dominant in a rehab start, so perhaps this IL stint (only his second in the US) will get him back to where he needs to be. The other tailwind he has tonight? The Twins are an elite offense against left-handed pitching (.329 wOBA, 109 wRC+).
Best bets: As good as I anticipate Maeda will be, I think there’s going to be runs scored tonight. I like the over tonight, and I also think the Twins make for a solid bet.
