The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (10/1)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of the day’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Boston Red Sox at Washington Nationals betting breakdown

Red Sox (-200), Nationals (+168)
Total: 9.0 runs
Eduardo Rodríguez (L) vs. Josh Rogers (L)

Three things to know

• The Red Sox need to lean on their .346 wOBA in order to make it into the playoffs.
• The Nationals have been solid offensively as well, logging a .337 wOBA and minute 18.5% strikeout rate.
• Can Eduardo Rodríguez continue his fine run of form and hefty strikeout pace?

Best bets: The Red Sox have to keep pace, and the lowly Nats are out of things. Bet on the Sox.

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Rays (+110), Yankees (-130)
Total: 9.0 runs
Shane McClanahan (L) vs. Nestor Cortes Jr. (L)

Three things to know

• The Rays own a .330 ISO and .202 ISO in the last 30 days.
• Nestor Cortes Jr. has truly been incredibly this year with a 27.5% K% on the season.
• The Yankees mediocre offense remains, well, mediocre — they are 12th in wOBA and ISO for the last 30 days.

Best bets: The most epic gut punch would be a Yankees choke this weekend. I like the Rays in G1.

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins betting breakdown

Phillies (-120), Marlins (+102)
Total: 7.0 runs
Ranger Suárez (L) vs. Sandy Alcantara (R)

Three things to know

• These are two of the best arms in the league. Runs will definitely be at a premium.
• Miami stinks at the plate; they have logged a league-worst .272 wOBA over this time frame.
• The Phillies? A little better, posting a .308 wOBA and .170 ISO.

Best bets: This one is tough — maybe some strikeout bets here, because both arms are awesome.

New York Mets at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Mets (+134), Braves (-158)
Total: 9.0 runs
Tylor Megill (R) vs. Huascar Ynoa (R)

Three things to know

• The Mets and Braves have nearly identical offenses over the last two weeks. Can they separate at all?
• Atlanta and New York both sport spicy .200-plus ISO marks.
• Can Tylor Megill curb his 3.16 HR/9 allowed to lefties?

Best bets: I love a Freddie Freeman home run prop here. Megill has gotten blitzed by lefty batters.

Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Athletics (+142), Astros (-168)
Total: 8.0 runs
Sean Manaea (L) vs. Framber Valdez (L)

Three things to know

• The A’s have fallen off the map offensively — their .312 wOBA and .150 ISO is pathetic.
• Not to be outdone, the ‘Stros have recorded a .187 ISO and .335 wOBA.
• Can Framber Valdez really finish the year with a ground-ball rate over 60%?

Best bets: The A’s are done and the ‘Stros are locked and loaded. Take them in a F3/F5 bet.

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Tigers (+230), White Sox (-280)
Total: 8.5 runs
Wily Peralta (R) vs. Lance Lynn (R)

Three things to know

• The Sox need a jolt on offense — their .152 ISO isn’t super intriguing.
• The Tigers have been solid since an opening month disaster.
• Wily Peralta has gotten crushed by same-sided bats. Can he keep the ball in play?

Best bets: I love righty homer props here — peep the odds on Luis Robert and José Abreu and play them accordingly.

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals betting breakdown

Twins (-126), Royals (+108)
Total: 9.0 runs
John Gant (R) vs. Jon Heasley (R)

Three things to know

• This is a pretty gross matchup of two AL Central squads.
• The Twins have been ugly at the plate, logging a .308 wOBA in the last month.
• The Royals haven’t been so spicy either, posting a .319 wOBA and .160 ISO.

Best bets: I’m staying away here — there’s not much to talk about and the motivation level is low.

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Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Rockies (-112), Diamondbacks (-104)
Total: 8.5 runs
Jon Gray (R) vs. Humberto Castellanos (R)

Three things to know

• End this Diamondback season early — they are fourth worst in team wOBA in the last month (.291).
• Maybe the Rockies can awaken at the dish — they sport a mark of .317.
• Neither team has much pop, logging an ISO of .170 or less.

Best bets: Peek at the Jon Gray strikeout prop — the Snakes have a mark of 23.4% in the last month.

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Brewers (+190), Dodgers (-230)
Total: 9.0 runs
Eric Lauer (L) vs. Clayton Kershaw (L)

Three things to know

• The Dodgers need to wake up at the plate — their .328 wOBA is only 11th.
• Can the Brewers get better at the plate — their .305 wOBA and .157 ISO is ugly.
• Will we see a regular lineup from the Brewers with nothing to play for?

Best bets: The Dodgers have to keep winning as they chase down the Giants. Look at them big here.

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners betting breakdown

Angels (+142), Mariners (-168)
Total: 9.0 runs
José Suarez (L) vs. Marco Gonzales (L)

Three things to know

• The Mariners are now tied for the Wild Card. Can they really pull this off? They are 9-1 in their L10.
• Seattle boasts only a .314 wOBA and .165 ISO over the last 30 days.
• On the flip side, the Angels have stunk at the plate, posting a .284 wOBA and .130 ISO over the same time frame.

Best bets: Mariners and it’s not close. These are must-wins for them.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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