Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
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Stat Hero NBA picks for tonight
Player prices will fluctuate throughout the day with news, so prices in this article may not reflect what you see on the app when you’re making your lineup in the sportsbook. Make sure you join the #StatHero channel in the FTN Daily Discord. It’s free and you can always tag me with any questions you may have leading up to lock.
Here’s a look at my favorite plays for Wednesday’s slate on StatHero.
StatHero MVP Picks (normally $11k and above)
Your MVP will score 1.5x the fantasy points. Last week, we discussed how a Russell Westbrook fade was the best way to get different from StatHero and it paid off. Turns out that while a lot has changed in the playoff landscape since then, our strategy here will remain the same. It’s not that Westy doesn’t project well here; he looks fine. It’s the price that’s once again prohibiting him from being in the optimal lineup. With Russ at $14k, we can do so much better by starting off at MVP with someone like Kawhi Leonard, who projects very closely to Russ for $2.2k less. I have no issue if you wanted to run someone like Bradley Beal, Paul George or even Luka Donicic with a bum shoulder at MVP. But the price/projection combo that Kawhi offers is too good for me to pass up.
StatHero flex picks ($6.5k-$11k range)
This price tier is absolutely stacked. Because of it, my lineups have been including at least three players from this range. With Joel Embiid out for Philadelphia, you can roster both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons for $19.4k combined. I’m not opposed to stacking them for that price. Donovan Mitchell, who has boasted right around a 40% usage rate in his three games since returning from injury, also stands out at $9.9k. Both of the starting centers from that series, Rudy Gobert and Jonas Valanciunas, are in play in the high-$9k range as well. Toward the middle of this tier are guys like Ja Morant, Derrick Rose, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley and Dillon Brooks. All are acceptable midrange plays to make your spend ups fit. Near the $6.5k cutoff are Rui Hachimura, Reggie Jackson and Daniel Gafford, who have all shown upside at times during the first round.
StatHero sleeper/value picks ($6.4k and below)
Luckily, it doesn’t appear we need to dumpster dive heavily on this slate. If you take one player from this range, you’re likely able to build out a lineup that packs a punch. Standing out to me in this range are guys like Marcus Morris, Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, Seth Curry, Maxi Kleber and Taj Gibson. But even all those options are more expensive than a $4.6k Rajon Rondo, who is my favorite play below $6.4k. You can get different with Terrence Mann for $100 less, but I don’t think we need to take that kind of chance in a head-to-head scenario.
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