Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Stat Hero MLB picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate. Follow me on Twitter to see my exact lineup.
StatHero MVPs
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
The likely AL MVP hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, currently riding a four-game hit streak with two doubles and two home runs (including this huge blast for home run 36). Chi Chi González has struggled all season, giving up 61 earned runs (tied for the eighth most in baseball) and at least one home run in eight straight games. Away from Coors Field since 2019 (his first on the Rockies), Gonzalez has allowed a .371 wOBA and .201 ISO to left-handed hitters. Plus, the Rockies have one of the worst bullpens in baseball.
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Freeman has been hotter than the high Georgia temperatures lately, posting a .400 batting average and six home runs this month. Rookie Tylor Megill has been very solid to start his career, but all seven of his earned runs have come against left-handed hitters. Megill is allowing a .365 wOBA, .227 ISO and 53.1% fly ball rate to lefties. Freeman is one of the best left-handed hitters in baseball and went 3-5 against Megill earlier this season.
StatHero flex picks
Andrew McCutchen, Philadelphia Phillies
McCutchen has been on absolute fire lately, collecting a hit in eight of his last 10 games, including four home runs. Patrick Corbin has had a rough go of it this season, tying Gonzalez with 61 earned runs for the eighth most allowed this season. His last four starts have not been any better, allowing 17 earned runs over 21.1 innings pitched. Right-handed hitters have fared well against Corbin since 2019 with a .331 wOBA and .184 ISO. McCutchen is great against right lefties, hitting them with a .413 wOBA, .263 ISO and 42.9% hard contact rate.
Jared Walsh, Los Angeles Angels
I really want to attack Gonzalez and the Rockies. The All-Star’s struggles since the break don’t bother me, but he did miss Tuesday’s game, so there is a chance he could miss Wednesday’s as well. Walsh has been excellent against right-handed pitching in his career with a .386 wOBA, .280 ISO and 43.2% hard contact rate. The four-seam fastball and slider are by far Gonzalez’s two main pitches, throwing them a combined 80% of the time this season. Walsh is hitting them very well with a 114 and 124 wRC+, respectively. If you really want to roster him (I don’t blame you because I do as well) make sure to pay for the StatHero insurance so you can swap him out if he doesn’t make the lineup.
DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees
LeMahieu has been one of the only bright spots of the Yankees sluggish offense, especially recently where he has recorded a hit in eight of his last 10 games, including three doubles. Michael Wacha is a reverse-splits pitcher, allowing a .381 wOBA, .261 ISO and 43.5% hard contact rate since 2019. LeMahieu doesn’t have a ton of pop, but he does have a .353 wOBA against right-handed pitchers since 2019. He has also gone 6-16 with three doubles against Wacha.
Jonathan Schoop, Detroit Tigers
Schoop was one of the sleepers in my Friday article that paid off with two hits, a walk and an RBI. I’m going back to him because he is in another great spot facing J.A. Happ, who has given up 65 earned runs this season, tied for the fifth most in baseball. Right-handed hitters have been a problem for Happ, allowing a .355 wOBA, .246 ISO and 38.2% hard contact rate since 2019. Left-handed hitters have been easy for Schoop to hit with a .374 wOBA, .254 ISO and 42.8% hard contact rate since 2019. Schoop has fared well against him in his career going 13-44 (.295) with a double and a home run. I believe $8,500 is a great price for us to take advantage of.
Eloy Jiménez, Chicago White Sox
The much-anticipated return of Jimenez finally happened Monday. He went hitless in four tries but grabbed two hits, including this monster home run, Tuesday. StatHero has two other White Sox in their lineup, so I want to attack Kris Bubic differently and at a cheaper price then they are. Since 2019, Bubic is allowing a .343 wOBA and .193 ISO to right-handed hitters. Jimenez doesn’t demolish left-handed pitching, but he hits it well with a .331 wOBA, .213 ISO and 40.8% hard contact rate. One of the best hitting environments is in Kansas City as well with the high temperatures and the Royals have one of the worst bullpens.
Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins
Wily Peralta has had a great season but is coming off a bad start where he got roughed up for five earned runs, including two long balls. It was his second start of the season giving up five earned runs, so I don’t think it’s a fluke. He has done well against the Twins in two starts this season but the more they see him the more likely I think they are to get to him. Since 2019, Peralta has allowed a .360 wOBA, .307 ISO and 42.6% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. The switch-hitting Polanco holds his own against right-handed pitching with a .346 wOBA and .177 ISO. It is a plus matchup for Polanco against the Tigers bad bullpen as well (they gave up 10 earned runs to the Twins after Peralta held them to one earned run back on July 11).
StatHero sleepers/values
Abraham Almonte, Atlanta Braves
It hasn’t been the best season for Almonte, but he did collect two hits including a home run Tuesday night in New York. He is another left-handed bat to go after Megill with but this time only $7,700. Since 2019, Almonte has done very well against right-handed pitching with a .342 wOBA, .193 ISO and 38.8% hard contact rate.
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
It’s been a bad stretch for Correa this month, but he may be turning the corner after three straight games with a hit. Yusei Kikuchi was having a great season but has really struggled lately, giving up 15 earned runs in his last 16 innings pitched over three starts. He also has allowed a home run in five straight starts. Since 2019, right-handed hitters are doing well against Kikuchi with a .350 wOBA and .218 ISO. Correa loves hitting against left-handed pitchers with a .371 wOBA, .167 ISO and 38.6% hard contact rate.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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