Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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Stat Hero MLB picks for today
Here is a look at my favorite plays on StatHero for Wednesday’s slate. Follow me on Twitter to see my exact lineup.
StatHero MVPs
Your team MVP scores 1.5x the amount of fantasy points and you lose points for strikeouts so pick someone you feel is safe, ideally with a low chance of striking out.
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Riding a four-game hit streak since the All-Star break, Alonso is in a good spot to keep the streak going against Jeff Hoffman, who is expected to make his first start since May 26 after dealing with to a shoulder injury. Since 2019, Hoffman has really struggled with right-handed hitters, allowing a .406 wOBA, .314 ISO and 41.8% hard contact rate. If you’re thinking these numbers are this bad because of his history pitching at Coors Field, that’s actually not the case. Away from Coors Field prior to this season (his first not on the Rockies), he is allowing a .425 wOBA, 41.1% hard contact rate, .299 ISO vs. right-handed hitters. Alonso crushes right-handed pitching with a .371 wOBA, .280 ISO and 38.7% hard contact rate since 2019.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
His MVP-level play has continued since the All-Star break, with three home runs in four games. The Blue Jays have had Garrett Richards’ number this season, knocking him around for 22 hits (2.040 WHIP) and 10 earned runs in three starts. Guerrero is no exception, going 5-7 with three doubles against Richards. Pitching against right-handed hitters has not gone very well against for Richards, giving up a .361 wOBA, .185 ISO and 40.7% hard contact rate since 2019. Guerrero has been smashing right-handed pitching in his career with a .388 wOBA, .236 ISO and 39.9% hard contact rate.
StatHero flex picks
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
A few tough games against the White Sox right after the All-Star break have faded away for Alvarez, as he’s driven in two runs in each of his last two games. Eli Morgan has found more consistency but still has struggled, allowing too many base runners and at least three earned runs in all six of his starts this season. It’s a small sample size, so the numbers are very high, but against left-handed hitters he is allowing a .387 wOBA, .279 ISO, 41.9% hard contact rate and 58.1% fly ball rate.
Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
Anderson is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, hitting .381 this month with home runs in three of his last four games. Michael Pineda has not fared well against the White Sox this season, giving up eight earned runs in 10.2 innings pitched across two starts. Pineda is allowing a 38.8% hard contact rate and .186 ISO against right-handed hitters since 2019. Throughout his career, Anderson has dominated Pineda, going 12-18 with three doubles and three home runs.
Akil Baddoo, Detroit Tigers
Baddoo is another hitter who has done well since the All-Star break, with five hits, seven RBI and four runs in four games. Jordan Lyles was roughed up for six earned runs, including four home runs, in four innings in his last start. Lyles doesn’t have a great track record against left-handed hitters since 2019, allowing a .353 wOBA, .202 ISO, 38% hard contact rate and 43.9% fly ball rate. Baddoo has been great against right-handed pitching this season with a .402 wOBA, .257 ISO 36.9% hard contact rate.
Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Keegan Akin has really struggled this season, giving up four or more earned runs in six straight starts. In his career Akin is allowing a .375 wOBA and .201 ISO to right-handed hitters. Franco’s amazing debut quickly faded away into a rough campaign for the rookie. However, he has recorded a hit in three of four games since the All-Star break including a triple and a home run. Franco has been good against left-handed pitching with a .443 wOBA and .382 ISO in his short career.
Brad Miller, Philadelphia Phillies
Asher Wojciechowski is expected to make his season debut for the Yankees. His career has been lackluster to this point with a 5.95 ERA. Left-handed hitters have demolished him during his career with a .394 wOBA, .287 ISO and 37.7% hard contact rate. Miller has been great against right-handed pitching with a .365 wOBA, .256 ISO and 40.7% hard contact rate since 2019. Wojciechowski is also an extreme fly ball pitcher which bodes well for Miller with the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium.
Jacob Stallings, Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s not often a Pirates hitter not named Ke’Bryan Hayes makes the list, but I like Stallings here. Madison Bumgarner pitched well in his last start, but he has been very up and down all season. He has also struggled to limit power giving up a 45.1% hard contact rate and .217 ISO to right-handed hitters since 2019. Stallings is in good form recently and has hit left-handed pitching well with a .345 wOBA, .224 ISO and 40% hard contact rate since 2019. It is a very small sample, but Stallings has hit a home run in three at-bats against Bumgarner.
StatHero sleepers/values
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
The All-Star catcher has continued right where he left off with hits in three of his four games since the All-Star break. Eric Lauer is coming off two good starts but has had trouble with limiting walks. Right-handed hitters have found some success against him since 2019 with a 40% hard contact rate, .168 ISO and 41.6% fly ball rate. Perez is a great hitter against left-handed pitching with a .451 wOBA, .371 ISO and 41.4% hard contact rate since 2019. I love his upside at just $8,200.
Gavin Sheets, Chicago White Sox
Sheets is off to a pretty solid start to his career, with an .896 OPS this season and two home runs since the All-Star break. He’s proven to be a great fastball hitter with his walk-off home run Monday night and an insane 304 wRC+ against four seam fastballs this season. Luckily for us, Pineda is throwing his four-seam fastball 54% of the time. Sheets will probably see more sliders because of this, and he has not hit them well so far, but Sheets should still see some fastballs, especially if Pineda struggles to locate his slider. I think he has a lot of upside at $6,400, although you may want to buy the StatHero insurance in case he’s not in the lineup.
Note: salaries change throughout the day as news and lineups come out.
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